By Megan Cerullo
更新时间：2026年1月26日 / 美国东部时间晚上8:05 / CBS新闻
试图从本周末的暴风雪中获利的赌客蜂拥至预测市场，豪赌美国各地最终降雪量，仅纽约市一地的赌注就超过600万美元。
在线预测市场Polymarket和Kalshi接受了美国不同地区预期降雪量的投注。例如，Polymarket上有一个名为”本周末（1月24-26日）纽约市降雪量多少英寸？”的市场，投注金额超过120万美元。
根据截至周一的投注情况，纽约市的隐含共识降雪量为11英寸。该市场页面说明，官方结果尚未确定，赌客需等到美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）公布1月24日至26日三天的降雪总量后才能兑现或结算损失。
Polymarket表示，该市场将依赖NOAA”每日新雪（IN）”数据中的纽约-中央公园地区降雪量数据。
纽约市最热门的投注区间是10至12英寸。周一上午，预测该区间降雪量的股份交易价格为每股90美分。
最大投注者购买了超过8100股该区间股份，每股成本61美分。同一位赌客还以超过1000美元的金额投注了12至14英寸的降雪量。这两笔投注目前仍有效，意味着由于结果尚未确定，尚未进行结算。
赌客们还投注了华盛顿特区的降雪量，以及本周末哪些城市会降雪（包括亚特兰大和西雅图）。
Kalshi的纽约市降雪投注
在另一个在线预测市场Kalshi上，赌客们对类似的气候相关问题”1月24-26日纽约市降雪量？”投注了累计七位数的金额。
截至周一上午，Kalshi上的该市场投注金额已超过500万美元，市场预测降雪量超过10英寸的概率为99%。
该市场在东部时间晚上11:59关闭，将根据美国国家气象局的数据确定哪些投注有效，网站说明。
预测市场是个人可以买卖各种未来事件（包括气候事件、体育赛事、政治竞赛等）结果相关股份的论坛。这些平台实时追踪投注情况，并能洞察消费者和投资者的心态。
本月早些时候，在线预测市场也曾引发关注：一名匿名交易者因准确预测委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗将被抓捕而赚取了超过46.3万美元。
专家告诉CBS新闻，这种投机性投注的时机引发了人们对赌客身份以及美国抓捕马杜罗行动前可能获取内幕信息的质疑。
专家表示，此类市场监管较轻，容易受到操纵，而暴风雪等事件的结果则较难控制。
Edited by Aimee Picchi
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/brutal-cold-temperatures-move-in-as-us-digs-out-from-deadly-winter-storm/
Bettors wagered millions on this weekend’s expected snowfall across the U.S.
By Megan Cerullo
Updated on: January 26, 2026 / 8:05 PM EST / CBS News
Bettors seeking to cash in on the weekend’s snowstorm flocked to prediction markets to wager millions on how much snow would ultimately accumulate across the U.S., with more than $6 million bet on New York City’s totals alone.
Online prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi accepted bets for expected snowfall in different locales across the U.S. For example, more than $1.2 million was wagered on a market at Polymarket, titled “How many inches of snow in NYC this weekend? (Jan 24-26)”.
Based on bets placed through Monday, the implied consensus snowfall for New York City’s total was 11 inches. The official outcome has yet to be determined, and bettors won’t cash out — or notch losses — until totals for the three days between Jan. 24 and Jan. 26 are released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, according to the market’s description on the site.
Polymarket said the market will rely on snowfall data from NOAA’s “New Snow (IN)” daily figures for the New York–Central Park area.
The most popular wager for the Big Apple was in the 10- to 12-inch range. Shares predicting snowfall within that bracket were trading at 90 cents each Monday morning.
The top bettor had purchased more than 8,100 shares, anticipating this outcome at 61 cents apiece. The same bettor had also wagered more than $1,000 on 12 to 14 inches of snowfall. Both bets remain active, meaning they have not yet been resolved because an outcome has not been determined.
Bettors also wagered on snowfall in Washington, D.C., and bet which cities would see snow this weekend, including Atlanta and Seattle.
Kalshi’s NYC snowfall wager
On Kalshi, another online prediction market, bettors wagered a cumulative seven figures on a similar climate-related question: “Snow in New York City from Jan 24-26?”
More than $5 million had been wagered on Kalshi as of Monday morning, with the market presuming a 99% chance of more than 10 inches of accumulation.
The market, which closes at 11:59 p.m. Eastern time, will rely on data from the National Weather Service to determine which bets pay out, according to the site.
Prediction markets are forums where individuals can purchase and sell shares in the outcomes of a wide variety of future events, including climate events, sports games, political contests and more. The sites track wagers in real-time and provide insights into consumers’ and investors’ mindsets.
Online prediction markets also gained attention earlier this month, when an anonymous trader earned more than $463,000 by accurately predicting that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be captured.
The timing of the speculative bet raised questions about the bettor’s identity and potential access to inside information ahead of the U.S. operation to seize Maduro, experts told CBS News.
Experts say such markets are only lightly regulated and are susceptible to manipulation, while the outcome of an event like a snowstorm is harder to control.
Edited by Aimee Picchi
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/brutal-cold-temperatures-move-in-as-us-digs-out-from-deadly-winter-storm/
发表回复