2026年7月14日 / 美国东部时间上午8:35 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
美国劳工部周二发布的数据显示，6月通胀增速超预期放缓，从5月的4.2%降至3.5%的年率，汽油价格下跌助力缓解了物价上涨压力。
核心数据
接受金融数据公司FactSet调查的经济学家此前预测，6月通胀年率将达到3.9%。
此前通胀连续三个月攀升，将消费者物价指数（CPI）推至三年多来的最高水平，而此次降温得益于能源价格下跌，汽油价格较上月暴跌9.7%。
美国劳工统计局表示，6月的单月降幅是2020年4月以来最大的单月下跌幅度。
牛津经济研究院在7月14日发布的报告中指出，鉴于石油和汽油价格在6月及7月初下跌，5月可能是今年的通胀峰值。
CPI是衡量消费者通常购买的一篮子商品和服务价格随时间变化的指标。
剔除波动较大的能源和食品类别后的核心CPI年率为2.6%，低于5月的2.9%，也低于经济学家的预期。
此次通胀数据低于预期，正值美伊上月签署谅解备忘录，落实了为期60天的战场停火协议。
但此后两国因霍尔木兹海峡控制权争夺再次紧张升级。
高盛集团分析师在周二CPI数据发布前的一份研究报告中表示：“冲突的严重重新升级有可能再次推高通胀的主要上行风险，并提高加息概率。”
专家观点
专家警告称，当日公布的CPI数据并未反映出近期美伊紧张局势升级推动的能源价格上涨。
周二，国际原油基准布伦特原油价格飙升至每桶86美元以上，创下一个月来新高，此前特朗普总统表示美国将恢复对霍尔木兹海峡的军事封锁，并对通过该水道的货运征收20%的费用。
美国汽车协会（AAA）数据显示，周二全国汽油平均价格为每加仑3.86美元，较5月每加仑4.50美元以上的峰值有所下降，但仍高于战争爆发前每加仑3美元以下的水平。
“石油和汽油价格——6月通胀放缓的主要原因——因美伊新一轮紧张局势开始小幅回升，但CPI要再过一个月才会体现这一变化，”曾任职高盛的市场专家尼克·普克拉林在电子邮件中表示。
海军联邦信贷联盟首席经济学家希瑟·朗表示，通胀放缓也为消费者带来了喘息之机，此前战争已推高了能源价格。
“这对美国全国、美联储以及许多迫切希望通胀得到缓解的中产阶级和中等收入美国人来说都是好消息，”她在电子邮件中说道。
但她表示，现在判断价格下降是否会持续还为时过早。“令人担忧的是，随着伊朗战争重启，这种缓解将是短暂的，”朗补充道。
这对美联储意味着什么
上月，近一半的美联储政策制定者表示，他们将考虑在今年晚些时候加息。不过专家周二表示，6月通胀降温可能会让美联储目前按兵不动。
芝加哥商品交易所集团的FedWatch工具显示，CPI数据发布后，美联储维持利率不变的概率为86%。
“在今日核心通胀数据表现温和之后，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在接下来几次会议上加息的可能性似乎降低了，”LPL Financial首席经济学家杰弗里·罗奇在电子邮件中表示。“但考虑到能源冲击可能蔓延到其他消费品类别风险，我们可能仍处于拐点。”
美联储下一次利率决议定于7月29日公布。
编辑：艾米·皮奇
Inflation eased more than expected in June as gas prices fell, CPI report shows
July 14, 2026 / 8:35 AM EDT / CBS News
Inflation slowed more than expected in June, easing to an annual rate of 3.5% from 4.2% in May as lower gasoline prices helped cool price growth, according to Labor Department data released Tuesday.
By the numbers
Economists polled by the financial data firm FactSet predicted June inflation would rise at an annual rate of 3.9%.
The cooler reading comes after three consecutive months of increases that pushed the CPI to its highest level in more than three years. Inflation slowed as a result of declining energy prices, with gasoline prices tumbling 9.7% in June from a month earlier.
June’s decline represented the largest one-month decrease since April 2020, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
With oil and gasoline prices falling in June and early July, May may represent this year’s peak inflation reading, Oxford Economics said in a report published July 14.
The CPI, a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, tracks changes in prices over time.
Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile energy and food categories, rose at an annual rate of 2.6%, down from 2.9% in May and below economists’ expectations.
The lower-than-expected inflation figure comes after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding last month, which implemented a 60-day ceasefire in the war.
However, tensions between the two countries have since flared as they vie for control of the Strait of Hormuz.
“A serious re-escalation of the conflict would threaten to revive the key upside risk to inflation and raise the odds of rate hikes,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note before Tuesday’s CPI release.
What experts are saying
Experts cautioned that today’s CPI figure doesn’t reflect the recent rise in energy prices driven by renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
On Tuesday, the price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, shot up to a one-month high of more than $86 a barrel after President Trump said the U.S. would reinstitute a military blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% fee on cargo shipments transiting the waterway.
The national average for gasoline sat at $3.86 a gallon on Tuesday, according to AAA, down from a peak of more than $4.50 in May but still above the sub-$3-a-gallon level before the war started.
“Oil and gasoline prices — the main reason inflation eased in June — have started to edge back up on renewed US-Iran tensions, but the CPI won’t reflect this for another month,” Nic Puckrin, a markets expert and former Goldman Sachs analyst, said in an email.
Slowing inflation also offered a reprieve for consumers, who have been grappling with higher energy prices due to the war, said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit.
“This is good news for the nation, for the Federal Reserve and for many middle-income and moderate-income Americans who were desperate for some relief on inflation,” she said in an email.
However, it’s too soon to tell whether the drop in prices will last, she said. “The concern is that this relief will be short-lived as the war in Iran restarts,” Long added.
What this means for the Federal Reserve
Last month, nearly half of Federal Reserve policymakers signaled they would be open to raising interest rates later this year. However, experts said Tuesday that June’s cooler inflation reading will likely keep the central bank on the sidelines for now.
CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed a 86% probability that the central bank would hold rates steady following the CPI release.
“After today’s benign core inflation release, it appears less likely that the FOMC will raise rates over the next few meetings,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, said in an email. “However, we may still be at an inflection point, given the risk that the energy shock could spill over into other categories of consumer prices.”
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to make its next interest rate decision on July 29.
Edited by Aimee Picchi
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