2026-07-09T17:04:43.923Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/09/politics/iran-trump-nuclear
今年2月唐纳德·特朗普总统对伊朗开战之际,他援引的理由是伊朗即将面临核威胁。但这一说法始终存在一个漏洞:他此前八个月一直坚称,伊朗的核计划已于去年被“彻底摧毁”。
事实上,就在开战两周前,特朗普还声称2025年6月美以两国的空袭已让伊朗完全不具备哪怕“潜在的”核武器研发能力。
如今,在特朗普试图从这场极不受欢迎的战争中抽身之际,他就伊朗核威胁现状发出了更多自相矛盾的信号。
开战四个多月来,美国和全球经济都付出了沉重代价,而所有这些行动都旨在实现两大未竟目标:收缴伊朗的核材料,以及达成一份阻止德黑兰获得核武器的协议。但特朗普突然改口称,这些行动根本没有必要。
他声称这场战争已经取得成功,因为伊朗已经实现了无核化。
仿佛就在特朗普的斡旋谈判眼看就要彻底破裂的这一刻,伊朗的核计划又奇迹般地回到了“被彻底摧毁”的状态。
特朗普于周三在土耳其举行的北约峰会上反复重申了这一论调。
当被问及这场战争是否陷入“战略死局”时,特朗普保证说并非如此,因为战争已经取得了成功。
“我出兵只有一个理由:伊朗不能拥有核武器。我称之为,我们让伊朗实现了无核化,”特朗普说,“这已经实现了;他们永远都不会拥有核武器。”
这位总统称,伊朗的核材料如今“深埋于山体之下”,几乎不可能被获取。他还援引美国的监测能力,声称官员们可以通过摄像头监视核设施,确保无人能够进入。
“他们绝无可能拥有核武器,”特朗普补充道。
在另一场活动中,有人追问他将如何收缴伊朗的核材料。特朗普声称,美国实际上已经掌控了这些材料。
“我们已经拿到了核材料,因为它们深埋地下,”特朗普说,“除了我们之外,没人能拿到它们。”
他还补充道:“他们拿不到。”
“我认为这是一场巨大的成功,”特朗普在首场活动中说道。
有几点值得注意。
首先,这不过是特朗普最新的表态,表明他正在为可能在未实现主要目标的情况下从伊朗战争中撤军铺平道路。
本届政府曾多次将收缴伊朗核材料列为必须完成的任务——仅在六周前,财政部长斯科特·贝森特还将其称为“红线”。
但特朗普也刻意暗示,这或许并非绝对必要,因为伊朗无法接触到这些材料,相关区域也可以通过太空进行监测。
不过,更关键的一点是,此番言论引发了更多重大疑问:开战之初的官方理由是否站得住脚?这场战争是否是在虚假借口下发动并持续的?
从战争最初爆发时起,特朗普的辩解就已经混乱不堪,而“彻底摧毁”的说法只是其中一例。本届政府还不断调整战争目标,前后共提出了四个不同版本。特朗普早在1月就发出开战威胁,当时他的关注点并非所谓的核威胁,而是政权更迭——他还荒唐地声称,通过击毙部分伊朗领导人,他已经实现了这一目标,但这与真正意义上的政权更迭完全不符。
但特朗普最新宣称伊朗已永久实现无核化的说法,实在难以自圆其说。
当然,这场战争期间的空袭有可能让核材料更难被获取。
但迄今为止对伊朗核设施打击最猛烈的行动发生在2025年6月,当时特朗普首次声称伊朗的核计划已被“彻底摧毁”。而这场战争中的主要军事行动已于三个月前,即4月7日首次停火宣布后结束。
如果伊朗的核材料如今已深埋地下,其核计划基本宣告终结,也无需再达成任何协议,那为什么三个月前并非如此?为什么政府此前一直花大力气寻求核协议,并声称仍需收缴这些材料?如果只要将材料深埋就足够,那为什么不继续袭击核设施以进一步掩埋它们?
这完全说不通。
这一切都指向一个更站不住脚的可能性:特朗普如今发表这些言论,是因为他对这场战争失去了耐心,意识到或许无法达成一份像样的协议。(从伊朗多次明显违反停火协议的行为来看,伊朗显然也无意进行谈判。)因此,他最好开始为自己在诸多目标未达成的情况下撤军找借口。
但这也会让战争的付出变得毫无意义。这不仅意味着特朗普无法实现其作战目标,还意味着这场战争付出了沉重代价,却几乎没有任何收获。
除了13名美国军人在冲突中丧生之外,最突出的代价便是过去几个月的经济冲击,以及伊朗如今展现出的控制霍尔木兹海峡的能力。后者尤其对当前中东乃至全球的未来构成了巨大威胁。
而从特朗普最近的言论来看,这场战争最重大的成果或许正是这一点。
Trump now claims Iran has already been denuclearized. So what was the point of the war?
2026-07-09T17:04:43.923Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/09/politics/iran-trump-nuclear
When President Donald Trump went to war with Iran in February, he cited its supposedly imminent nuclear threat. But there was always a problem with that: He’d spent eight months asserting the program had already been “obliterated” last year.
Just two weeks before the war began, in fact, Trump claimed US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 had left Iran without even a “potential capability” for nukes.
Now, as Trump looks to extract himself from the highly unpopular war, he’s offering more confounding signals about the state of Iran’s nuclear threat.
After more than four months of war and major costs to the US and world economy — all geared towards the still-unfulfilled goals of obtaining Iran’s nuclear materials and a deal that keeps Tehran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon — Trump is suddenly suggesting none of that is even necessary.
He’s claiming the war is already a success because Iran has already been denuclearized.
It seems Iran’s nuclear program has magically gone back to “obliterated” status — at precisely the moment it looks like Trump’s efforts to cut a deal are truly falling apart.
Trump made this argument repeatedly on Wednesday at a NATO summit in Turkey.
When asked whether the war had hit a “strategic dead end,” Trump assured that it hadn’t because it was already a success.
“I was there for one reason: that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. I call it, we denuclearize Iran,” Trump said. “And that’s happened; they will never have a nuclear weapon.”
The president said Iran’s nuclear materials are now “so far down under a mountain” that they’re virtually unobtainable. He also cited US monitoring capabilities, arguing officials can see the nuclear sites on cameras and ensure nobody can access them.
“There’s no way they have a nuclear weapon,” Trump added.
At a separate event, he was pressed on how he was going to get Iran’s nuclear materials. He claimed that the United States, in effect, already has them.
“We’ve already got the nuclear material, because it’s so far underground,” Trump said. “Nobody’s going to be able to get it except us.”
He added: “They can’t get it.”
“I think it’s a tremendous success,” Trump said in the first appearance.
A couple points.
First, this is merely the latest evidence that Trump is laying the groundwork for possibly throwing in the towel in Iran without achieving his major objectives.
The administration has repeatedly cast getting Iran’s nuclear materials as a must-have — a “red line,” in the words of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just six weeks ago.
But Trump has also conspicuously floated the idea that this might not be strictly necessary, because the materials are inaccessible to Iran and the areas can be monitored from space.
Perhaps the bigger point, though, is that the comments raise more major questions about the original stated justifications for the war — and whether the war was launched (and continued) under false pretenses.
Trump’s justifications were already a mess from the war’s earliest days, and not just because of the “obliterated” talk. The administration has also issued a constantly shifting set of four goals. And Trump’s initial threats to go to war back in January were focused not on the supposed nuclear threat but instead on regime change — a goal that he’s also nonsensically claimed he has already achieved by killing certain leaders, despite that not matching what actually constitutes regime change.
But Trump’s latest claims that Iran has suddenly been denuclearized forevermore is really difficult to square.
It’s certainly possible that strikes during this war have made the nuclear materials even more difficult to get to.
But by far the biggest strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites came back in June 2025, when Trump first claimed its nuclear program had been “obliterated.” And the major military actions in this war ended three months ago, when the first ceasefire was announced on April 7.
If Iran’s nuclear materials are now so buried that its program is basically done-for and a deal isn’t necessary, why wasn’t that the case three months ago? Why did the administration spend all this time pursuing a nuclear deal and say it still needed to get the materials? Why not just keep hitting the nuclear sites to further bury the materials, if that’s good enough?
It makes no sense.
It all points to a far less justifiable possibility for why Trump is making these arguments now: that he has lost patience with this war and recognizes a good deal is probably not going to happen. (Iran certainly doesn’t seem interested in cutting one, judging by its many apparent violations of the ceasefire.) So it’s best to start spinning why he’s getting out with so many of his goals unfulfilled.
But also consider where that would leave the war effort. It wouldn’t just be that Trump wouldn’t accomplish his goals; it would mean that the war came with some major costs for virtually no gain.
Besides the 13 lives of US service members lost in the conflict, at the top of that list would be the economic shock of the past few months and Iran’s now-demonstrated ability to control the Strait of Hormuz. The latter especially looms extremely large over the future of the Middle East and the world right now.
And judging by Trump’s most recent comments, it’s looking more and more like that might be the most significant result of this war.
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