2026-07-03T09:00:25.635Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：爱德华·吴
3小时前
发布于2026年7月3日美国东部时间早上5:00
初选 唐纳德·特朗普
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丹妮尔·格里索拉诺和她的狗狗林肯、佩珀6月30日在丹佛中央图书馆参加科罗拉多州初选投票。
迈克尔·西亚格洛 摄/盖蒂图片社
今年的初选投票率延续了自唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫以来的趋势——民主党选民的投票积极性高于共和党。
2026年上半年，民主党初选的投票人数激增，使得本届初选的选民构成比2018年（特朗普第一任期内民主党拿下众议院控制权）或2022年（乔·拜登任期内共和党重夺众议院）更偏向民主党。
截至目前已举行初选的31个州中，有20个州在过去三届中期选举年都举办了两党主要的全州范围初选。CNN分析了这些州截至7月2日中午的投票数据。
在分析覆盖的20个州中，57%的初选选票投向民主党初选，较2022年同一批州上升了10个百分点，较2018年上升3个百分点。这些州在2024年总统选举中的普选票曾势均力敌。
亚伦·戴维斯6月27日在路易斯安那州新奥尔良举行的参议院初选 runoff选举中，走进菲利斯·惠特利社区学校的投票亭。
凯瑟琳·弗林 摄/路透社
从初选投票率中得出结论并非易事。不同选举年的初选通常不具有直接可比性——例如，某州初选投票人数增加，可能是因为本届选举竞争更激烈。初选投票率优势也可能无法转化为大选优势，因为初选通常只会激发政党基础中最坚定的选民参与，而参与大选的往往是参与度较低的选民。
但目前已有30多个不同规模、不同地理区域和不同政治倾向的州完成了初选投票，其中有一个清晰的模式：民主党初选的投票率全面上升。
民主党初选的投票率优势在各州都保持一致，尤其是与2022年相比。
与2018年相比，两党初选的投票率都有所上升：在20个分析州中，有16个州的民主党初选投票率出现上升，14个州的共和党初选投票率上升。与2022年相比，20个州中有18个州的民主党初选相对投票率高于共和党；与2018年相比，这一比例为20个州中的12个。
在特朗普第二任期内，美国民众对两党的看法始终持负面态度，其中包括相当一部分民主党基础选民对自身政党持负面看法。
但这种负面情绪并未阻止民主党选民以更高的积极性投票——在众议院特别选举和全州范围内的选举中，民主党候选人的表现普遍远超2024年总统选举的得票差距。今年初选的投票率趋势延续了3月初的态势，当时得克萨斯州以民主党初选破纪录的投票率拉开了初选季的序幕。
CNN analysis: Turnout in this year’s primary elections clearly favors Democrats so far
2026-07-03T09:00:25.635Z / CNN
By Edward Wu
3 hr ago
PUBLISHED Jul 3, 2026, 5:00 AM ET
Primary elections Donald Trump
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Danielle Grisolano and her dogs, Lincoln and Pepper, vote in Colorado’s primary election at the Central Library in Denver, on June 30.
Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images
This year’s primary turnout continues a trend that’s been building since Donald Trump’s return to the White House – Democrats are more motivated than Republicans to vote.
Voter numbers have surged in Democratic primaries through the first half of 2026, creating a primary electorate that tilts more toward Democrats than in 2018, when Democrats won control of the House during Trump’s first term, or toward Republicans in 2022, when the GOP took back the House during Joe Biden’s term.
Of the 31 states that have held a primary election so far, 20 have held a major statewide primary for both Democrats and Republicans in each of the past three midterm years. CNN analyzed the votes reported in these 20 states through noon on July 2.
Among the states analyzed, 57% of primary voters were cast in Democratic primaries over Republican primaries, up 10 points from the same states in 2022 and 3 points relative to 2018. The popular vote was evenly split in these states in the 2024 presidential election.
Aaron Davis enters a voting booth at Phillis Wheatley Community School in the Senate primary runoff election in New Orleans, Louisiana, on June 27.
Kathleen Flynn/Reuters
Drawing conclusions from primary turnout can be difficult. Primaries across election years are often not directly comparable – an increase in primary votes in a state may be the result of a more competitive election in the current cycle, for example. An advantage in primary turnout may also not translate to the general election, as primaries generally feature the most committed voters in a party’s base, while less engaged voters more commonly participate in general elections.
But with primary votes now cast in more than 30 states ranging in size, geography, and political alignment, there’s a clear pattern: turnout is up across the board in Democratic primaries.
The turnout advantage for Democratic primaries has also been consistent across states, particularly when compared to 2022.
Turnout has also tended to increase in both parties’ primaries relative to 2018: of the 20 states analyzed, 16 had increases in turnout in Democratic primaries and 14 had increases in Republican primaries. Relative turnout in Democratic primaries has been higher than relative turnout in Republican primaries in 18 of 20 states compared to 2022 and 12 of 20 states compared to 2018.
Americans have held consistently negative views of both parties during Trump’s second term, including a substantial minority of the Democratic base that views their own party negatively.
But that negative sentiment hasn’t dissuaded Democratic voters from turning out at higher rates –Democratic candidates have generally outperformed 2024 presidential margins by a considerable amount in House special elections and statewide races. The primary turnout dynamic in this year’s primaries continues a trend from early March, when Texas kicked off the primary season with record-breaking turnout in its Democratic primary.
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