2026-06-27T12:02:55.037Z / 路透社
华盛顿6月27日电（路透社）——美联储主席凯文·沃什领导美国中央银行的早期阶段本周将面临新的考验：他将出席葡萄牙一场备受瞩目的经济会议，同时美国最高法院将就唐纳德·特朗普总统解雇一名美联储政策制定者的行为是否合法作出预期中的裁决。
美国最高法院当前任期进入最后一周，最早可能于周一作出裁决，判断美联储理事丽莎·库克能否留任，尽管特朗普去年8月宣布解雇她。
下级法院已认定库克很可能在这场针对特朗普解雇行为的法律挑战中胜诉，并允许她在案件上诉至最高法院期间继续担任美联储理事会理事。
美联储理事只能“因正当理由”被解雇，但这一表述从未在法庭上得到界定或检验。特朗普是首位试图解雇在职美联储理事的总统，他辩称，库克在住房抵押贷款申请方面的虚假陈述（特朗普所称）足以将其免职。
此举被广泛视为对美联储免受政治干预政策制定独立性的攻击，因为特朗普此前因现任美联储官员不愿响应他大幅降息的要求而感到挫败，试图在美联储董事会为自己任命的人选腾出位置。
在今年早些时候的听证会上，最高法院大法官似乎对特朗普政府的论点持怀疑态度。尽管最高法院曾允许政府罢免其他独立机构的官员，但此前的裁决显示美联储拥有独特地位。法律学者将这一立场解读为暗示，法院将找到理由保护美联储政策制定者免受“随意解雇”。
如果库克得以留任，且配套设立严格的保障措施，将为沃什消除一大风险——即他领导美联储期间会遭遇特朗普一连串破坏性的解雇行动，而沃什本人也可能面临被解职的风险。
不过，这也将凸显特朗普在影响美联储政策（包括利率政策）方面面临的限制。若裁决有利于库克，还将让沃什等人免受解雇威胁，得以不受干扰地采取行动。
近期经济数据显示，5月关键通胀指标涨幅超过美联储2%目标的两倍多，这让投资者愈发认为，美联储未来几个月将加息，而非像特朗普所说和期望的那样降息。
但到目前为止，特朗普和财政部长斯科特·贝森特的言论比此前对待前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔时更为温和。鲍威尔因拒绝降息被贴上“行动过慢”的贬义标签，更遭到了早已撤销的刑事调查和要求其下台的呼声。鲍威尔目前仍是美联储理事会成员。
“凯文非常出色，我希望他随心所欲，”特朗普本月早些时候在全国广播公司新闻频道《与媒体见面》节目中表示，“我不想对他施加太大影响。”
沃什的履职方式或许能在一定程度上帮助他管理特朗普的预期。这位新任美联储主席曾表示，他计划尽可能避免就特定时间表下政策利率是否应调整发表任何言论或“前瞻性指引”，在很大程度上不向公众乃至总统透露自己的政策立场。
缩减前瞻性指引“完全恰当”
沃什长期以来一直表示，他不喜欢在正常时期就美联储政策走向向金融市场提供指引或暗示，他认为在正常时期，投资者应根据经济状况而非中央银行的表态做出反应。
他上任后迅速将这一偏好付诸实践，主持发布了新的政策声明，删除了前瞻性指引措辞，并在6月16日至17日美联储会议后的首次作为美联储主席的新闻发布会上强调了这一点。
“你的问题听起来像是在鼓励我提供前瞻性指引。我们已经取消了前瞻性指引，”在被问及美联储可能加息的条件时，他回答道，“我无法就我们下一步的行动给出任何前瞻性指引。好消息是，我们六周后将召开会议，发布更新后的政策声明。”
沃什将于周三在葡萄牙山顶度假胜地辛特拉举行的欧洲央行年度论坛上亮相，这将是首次考验他的这一做法能否得到包括欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德、英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利和加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆在内的全球同行的认可。
四位央行行长将共同参与一场问答环节。
尽管欧洲央行的拉加德也已摒弃前瞻性指引，但英国央行仍会基于不同经济情景，就经济预期走势发表相当详细的评论。
然而，美元作为全球主要储备和贸易货币，其地位有所不同，美国利率的意外波动可能给其他市场和货币带来潜在压力，而美联储与其他国家签订的公开“互换额度”为全球大部分经济体提供了美元流动性兜底机制。
全球各界将关注沃什的“低信息披露”做法究竟会走多远。
皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙将于下周卸任国际货币基金组织首席经济学家一职，重返学术界。他周五在接受路透社离任采访时表示，强有力的前瞻性指引“口碑极差”，因为这会迫使央行做出未来行动承诺，无论经济形势如何发展。他指出，这束缚了美联储，使其无法更快地应对新冠疫情后的通胀爆发。
“因此，我认为摆脱这些强势形式的前瞻性指引完全恰当。但声称完全不提供前瞻性指引，我认为实际上从来都不是这样。无论你是明确还是含蓄地传递信号，市场都会形成自己的看法，”他说。
霍华德·施奈德报道；华盛顿的安德里亚·沙拉尔补充报道；丹·伯恩斯和保罗·西马奥编辑
Supreme Court ruling, ECB conference likely to further frame Fed chief Warsh’s early tenure
2026-06-27T12:02:55.037Z / Reuters
WASHINGTON, June 27 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s early leadership of the U.S. central bank faces fresh tests this week, with an appearance before a high-profile economic conference in Portugal and the U.S. Supreme Court’s expected ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump’s effort to fire a Fed policymaker.
The top U.S. court, entering the final week of its current term, could decide as soon as Monday whether Fed Governor Lisa Cook can keep her job despite Trump’s announcement last August that he was firing her.
Lower courts have agreed that Cook is likely to win her legal challenge of Trump’s effort to fire her and have let her remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors as the case worked its way to the Supreme Court.
Fed governors can only be fired “for cause,” but that has never been defined or tested in the courts. Trump is the first president to attempt to dismiss a sitting governor, arguing that what the president has characterized as misstatements on a home mortgage application by Cook justified her removal.
The move was seen broadly as an attack on the Fed’s independence from political interference in its policymaking, as Trump sought to make room on the Fed’s board for his own appointees after being frustrated that current U.S. central bankers would not respond to his demands for steep interest rate cuts.
In a hearing earlier this year, Supreme Court justices seemed skeptical of the Trump administration’s arguments. Though it has allowed the administration to remove officials from other independent agencies, the Supreme Court indicated in earlier rulings that the Fed had its own status. Legal scholars interpreted that stance as a hint that the court would find a rationale to protect the central bank’s policymakers from removal “at will.”
Allowing Cook to remain, with firm guardrails in place, would remove a major risk for Warsh — namely that his leadership of the Fed would involve a disruptive string of firings by Trump, with Warsh himself at risk of removal.
It would also, however, emphasize the constraints Trump faces when it comes to influencing the Fed’s actions, including on rates, with a ruling in Cook’s favor also insulating Warsh and others to act free from the threat of removal.
Recent economic data, with a key inflation gauge in May running at more than double the Fed’s 2% target, has raised the likelihood in the eyes of investors that the central bank will raise rates in coming months, not lower them as Trump has said he wants and expects.
So far, however, comments by Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been more forgiving than they were towards former Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose refusal to cut rates earned him the pejorative “Too Late” nickname, and more significantly, a since-dropped criminal investigation and calls for his removal. Powell remains a member of the Fed’s board.
“Kevin is fantastic, and I want him to do whatever he wants,” Trump said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” program earlier this month. “I don’t want to have a big influence on him.”
Warsh’s approach to his job may help him somewhat in managing Trump’s expectations. The new Fed chief has said he plans to avoid as much as possible any talk or “forward guidance” about whether the policy interest rate should be raised or lowered on any given timetable, keeping his own outlook largely out of public, and the president’s, view.
DIMINISHED GUIDANCE ‘ENTIRELY APPROPRIATE’
Warsh has long said he dislikes guidance or steering financial markets about Fed outcomes during normal times, when, he argues, investors should be reacting to economic conditions and not the central bank.
He began putting that preference into practice quickly, overseeing a new policy statement that dropped guidance language and emphasizing the point in his first press conference as Fed chief following the central bank’s June 16-17 meeting.
“Your question sounded like an encouragement for me to give forward guidance. We’ve dropped forward guidance,” he said in response to a reporter’s query about the conditions under which the Fed might raise rates. “I can’t give any forward guidance about what we’re going to do next. The good news is, we’ll be meeting in six weeks” and issuing an updated policy statement.
Warsh’s appearance on Wednesday at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in the Portuguese hilltop resort of Sintra will be a first test of how that approach is received by global peers including ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.
The four central bankers will share a question-and-answer panel.
While the ECB’s Lagarde has also moved away from forward guidance, the BoE includes fairly detailed commentary about how the economy is seen evolving, based on different economic scenarios.
The dollar, however, plays a different role globally as the major reserve and trading currency, with unexpected movements in U.S. interest rates a source of potential stress across other markets and currencies, and the Fed’s open “swap lines” with other countries offering a dollar liquidity backstop for much of the world economy.
A global audience will be looking to see just how far Warsh’s low-information approach might extend.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, who is leaving his post as the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist next week to return to academic life, told Reuters in an exit interview on Friday that strong forward guidance had gotten “really bad press” because it committed central banks to some future action, regardless of economic developments, noting it bound the Fed from responding more quickly to the inflation outbreak following the COVID-19 pandemic.
“So I think moving away from these strong forms of forward guidance is entirely appropriate. Saying there is no forward guidance, I don’t think that is actually the case ever. You do it explicitly, or implicitly, the market is going to form a view,” he said.
Reporting by Howard Schneider; additional reporting by Andrea Shalal in Washington; editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao
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