2026-06-23T13:51:17.245Z / https://www.reuters.com/business/us-manufacturing-rises-front-loading-orders-factory-employment-tumbles-six-year-2026-06-23/
2026年3月23日,美国印第安纳州南本德市通用冲压与金属制品工厂车间内,员工正在作业。路透社/吉姆·冯德魯斯卡 资料图片 购买授权,打开新标签页
- 内容摘要
- 制造业连续第四个月扩张,超出经济学家预期
- 供应商交货时间延长,为2022年8月以来最慢
- 制造业就业指数跌至47.0,为2020年5月以来最低
- 工厂新订单达到四年多来新高,受预期供应短缺和价格上涨影响提前下单
华盛顿6月23日路透电——美国制造业活动6月再度攀升,因企业为应对供应短缺和价格上涨提前下达新订单,但工厂就业却跌至六年低点,归咎于与中东冲突相关的运营成本上升。
标普全球表示,其美国制造业初值PMI从5月的55.1升至本月的55.7,为2022年5月以来最高读数。50以上的读数表明制造业处于扩张状态,该行业占美国经济总量的9.4%。接受路透社调查的经济学家此前预测制造业PMI将下滑至54.8。
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制造业PMI初值与服务业PMI初值的上涨相结合——服务业PMI从5月的50.7升至51.3——推动标普全球美国综合PMI产出指数从上月的51.5升至52.2。该指数追踪制造业和服务业部门。服务业PMI的上涨部分归功于由美国、加拿大和墨西哥联合举办的国际足联世界杯赛事。
制造业PMI已连续四个月上升,部分动力来自企业为避免供应短缺和价格上涨而进行的补货。
目前已持续四个月的美国-以色列与伊朗的冲突正在加剧全球供应链紧张,并推高与原油、铝和化肥相关的大宗商品价格。
美国和伊朗上周签署了一项结束冲突的临时协议。周一,副总统JD·万斯表示,尽管霍尔木兹海峡和黎巴嫩局势紧张,但在瑞士与伊朗官员的会谈为最终和平协议奠定了“良好基础”。
尽管和平希望帮助企业恢复了部分信心,但不足以抵消通胀担忧,制造业成为裁员的重灾区。标普全球将裁员归因于“对经济前景的担忧,以及对运营成本上升的回应,尤其是原材料价格方面”。该调查的制造业就业指数从5月的51.6跌至47.0,为2020年5月以来最低。
“如果排除疫情期间的数据,工厂裁员幅度已达到2009年以来最高水平,反映出市场对近期需求回升可持续性的担忧,以及对原材料成本不断上涨的担忧,”标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森说道。
私营部门就业疲软
整体私营部门就业连续第二个月疲软。这与美国劳工部的数据形成鲜明对比:后者显示私营薪资增长在过去三个月重新恢复势头。截至5月的三个月里,私营非农薪资平均每月增加16.6万个岗位,而2025年同期仅为6.2万个。不过,私营部门调查结果向来难以准确预测官方薪资数据。
标普全球的工厂新订单指数本月跃升至四年多来新高。该机构表示,此次上涨是因为“受预期供应问题和与战争相关的价格上涨影响,需求得到临时支撑”。该调查的库存采购指数飙升至13个月来最高水平。
其供应商交货时间指数延长至2022年8月以来的水平。冲突爆发前,供应商受唐纳德·特朗普总统全面关税政策的制约。尽管中东冲突爆发初期油价从多年高点回落,抑制了投入成本的进一步上涨,但工厂出厂通胀仍处于高位。
该调查的工厂投入支付价格指数从5月的75.3回落至71.2。制造商继续将成本转嫁给消费者,但涨价速度有所放缓。其产出价格指数从5月的63.1回落至仍处高位的61.0。
这一降幅被服务业价格指数的上涨抵消,使得私营部门企业整体的价格接收指数维持在58.6不变。该调查的整体投入价格指数从5月的62.5小幅回落至62.1。
这些高位读数与经济学家的预期一致:高通胀将持续一段时间,且美联储将于今年加息。美国央行周三将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%区间,但更新的季度预测显示,鉴于对通胀的担忧加剧,政策制定者预计今年将上调借贷成本。
路透社记者露西娅·穆蒂卡尼报道;安德烈亚·里奇编辑
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US manufacturing rises on front-loading of orders, but factory employment tumbles to six-year low
2026-06-23T13:51:17.245Z / https://www.reuters.com/business/us-manufacturing-rises-front-loading-orders-factory-employment-tumbles-six-year-2026-06-23/
Employees work on the production floor of the General Stamping & Metalworks building in South Bend, Indiana, U.S., March 23, 2026. REUTERS/Jim Vondruska/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Summary
- Manufacturing expanded for a fourth straight month, beating economists’ expectations
- Supplier delivery times lengthened; now at slowest pace since August 2022
- Manufacturing employment fell to 47.0, the lowest reading since May 2020
- Factory new orders reached a more than four-year high, supported by front-running potential shortages and price hikes
WASHINGTON, June 23 (Reuters) – U.S. manufacturing activity rose again in June as companies preemptively placed new orders in anticipation of shortages and higher prices, but factory employment hit a six-year low, blamed on rising operating costs related to the Middle East conflict.
S&P Global said its flash manufacturing PMI increased to 55.7 this month, the highest reading since May 2022, from 55.1 in May. A reading above 50 indicates growth in manufacturing, which accounts for 9.4% of the economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the manufacturing PMI slipping to 54.8.
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The rise combined with an increase in the flash services PMI to 51.3 from 50.7 in May to lift the S&P Global’s flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, to 52.2 from 51.5 last month. The increase in the services PMI was partly attributed to the FIFA World Cup tournament, jointly being hosted by the U.S., Canada and Mexico.
The manufacturing PMI has increased for four straight months, in part driven by businesses seeking to restock to avoid shortages and rising prices.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, now in its fourth month, is straining global supply chains and driving up prices of commodities tied to crude oil as well as aluminum and fertilizers.
The U.S. and Iran last week signed an interim agreement to end the war. On Monday, Vice President JD Vance said talks with Iranian officials in Switzerland had laid a “good foundation” for a final peace deal, despite tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon.
Though the hopes for peace helped to restore some confidence among businesses, they were not enough to overcome inflation concerns, with manufacturers dominating job cuts. S&P Global attributed the layoffs to “concerns over the outlook and in response to rising overheads, notably in terms of raw material prices.” The survey’s measure of manufacturing employment dropped to 47.0, the lowest reading since May 2020, from 51.6 in May.
“Factory job cuts are running at the highest since 2009 if the pandemic is excluded, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of the recent upturn in demand alongside worries over the escalating cost of raw materials,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT SUBDUED
Overall private sector employment was subdued for a second straight month. That is in stark contrast with Labor Department data showing private payrolls growth regainingmomentum in the last three months. Nonfarm private payrolls averaged 166,000 jobs per month in the three months through May compared to only 62,000 during the same period in 2025. Private surveys have, however, not been a good predictor of the official payrolls count.
S&P Global’s measure of new orders received by factories jumped to a more than four-year high this month. It said the rise was due to “demand being temporarily supported by the front-running of potential supply issues and price hikes associated with the war.” The survey’s gauge of stock purchases raced to the highest level in 13 months.
Its measure of supplier delivery times lengthened to levels last seen in August 2022. Prior to the war, suppliers were being constrained by President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Though an easing in oil prices from multi-year highs at the start of the Middle East conflict curbed further rises in the cost of inputs, inflation at the factory gate remained elevated.
The survey’s measure of prices paid by factories for inputs retreated to 71.2 from 75.3 in May. Manufacturers continued to pass on the costs to consumers, though the pace slowed. The survey’s gauge of output prices eased to a still-high 61.0 from 63.1 in May.
The drop was offset by a rise in the services measure, leaving the overall measure of prices received by private sector businesses unchanged at 58.6. The survey’s overall gauge of input prices dipped to 62.1 from 62.5 in May.
The elevated readings align with economists’ expectations for high inflation to persist for a while and for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year. The U.S. central bank on Wednesday kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers expected to raise borrowing costs this year amid growing concerns about inflation.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci
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