2026-06-22T16:52:01.039Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/22/politics/trump-iran-deal-poll
- 一项新的哥伦比亚广播公司新闻-舆观民调显示，绝大多数美国人希望伊朗战争现在就结束——但他们想要结束战争，并非因为他们认为美国取得了胜利。
- 仅有22%的受访者认为特朗普政府达成的协议对美国比对伊朗更有利。
- 大多数美国人认为这场战争带来的问题比解决的更多。
本文由AI生成摘要，并经CNN编辑审核。
特朗普政府与伊朗签署谅解备忘录后的首次大型民调，有一个结果对特朗普来说似乎是好消息：绝大多数美国人赞同他应该结束战争，而非推动更多让步。
但这并非因为他们真的认可这项协议；而是因为他们认为这场战争是一场惨败，只想尽快摆脱它。
最新的哥伦比亚广播公司新闻-舆观民调显示，即便美国人首次看到——尽管还不确定——战争即将结束的曙光，这也丝毫没有改善他们对这场战争的看法。
随着本届政府进入该进程的新阶段，我们有必要审视当前的政治立场，以及它们可能如何影响后续事态发展。
民调显示，78%的美国人表示更愿意现在结束战争，仅有22%的人希望坚持下去——“继续……直到伊朗做出更多让步”。
至少有一位特朗普的政治顾问在周日为这一结果欢呼。他认为，这表明美国民众在伊朗协议问题上站在特朗普和副总统JD·万斯一边。
但民调的其余结果清楚地表明，事实并非如此。
当被要求实际评估这项协议时，仅有22%的美国人表示该协议对美国比伊朗更有利，另有更多人——37%——表示该协议对伊朗更有利。（其余41%的人认为协议对双方大致平等。）
认为协议对美国更有利的受访者中，仅有39%是共和党人。因此需要强调的是，特朗普所在政党中仅有约四成的人认为他的政府在此谈判中取得了胜利。
美国人还以45%对29%的比例认为，从战略角度来看这场战争并不成功。
但这一结果可能低估了美国人眼中这场战略失败的程度。
或许没有什么比针对核问题的民调结果更能说明问题了——而核问题正是特朗普最关键的目标。
尽管特朗普多次声称他的目标是永久阻止伊朗的核计划，但哥伦比亚广播公司的民调显示，69%的美国人，甚至45%的共和党人都表示，如果这项协议最终敲定以结束战争，将无法实现这一目标。
这与6月中旬框架协议谈判期间进行的福克斯新闻民调结果相呼应。当时的民调显示，登记选民以64%对35%的比例认为，和平协议不太可能阻止伊朗生产核武器。
值得注意的是，该协议将许多细节留待后续敲定，因此在核问题上仍有大量问题需要解决。
但特朗普政府似乎正在撤回部分既定目标，而这些民调结果反映了美国民众普遍存在的悲观情绪。
最新的哥伦比亚广播公司民调还显示：
- 68%的人表示，如果协议最终敲定，也不会阻止伊朗威胁其他国家。近一半（48%）的受访共和党人同意这一说法。
- 79%的人表示，该协议并未让伊朗领导人更亲美。
- 74%的人表示，该协议没有让伊朗人民更安全、更自由，而特朗普曾在今年早些时候表示这是他的目标之一。
伊朗战争民调中一个引人注目的一致细节是，调查结果显示这场战争不仅被视为失败，而且适得其反。
如今这一观点依然存在。
特朗普声称战争已经在军事上摧毁了伊朗，并摧毁了其核计划。但仅有37%的美国人表示，如今的伊朗比战争开始前更弱。
超过六成的人表示，伊朗的实力与战前持平（38%）或更强（25%）。
尽管伊朗无疑遭受了重大军事损失，但它也通过如今已得到证实的封锁霍尔木兹海峡、危及世界经济的能力，展现了强大的影响力。
说到这里，美国人认为这场战争在未来数月乃至数年里仍可能持续造成损失。
明确的多数派（57%）表示，这场战争实际上“带来的问题比解决的更多”。这一比例几乎是认为战争解决的问题多于制造的问题的受访者（21%）的三倍。
而谈到这场战争的影响，美国人似乎认为特朗普根本不知道自己卷入了怎样的局面。
民调询问受访者是否认为特朗普政府理解战争对世界经济的影响。
高达64%的人认为战争对世界经济的影响超出了政府的预期。其中包括51%的受访共和党人。
当然，这有充分的依据——无论是从特朗普自己的公开言论还是新闻报道来看。美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）3月曾报道，政府低估了伊朗试图封锁霍尔木兹海峡的决心。
美国人只是急于结束战争——并且认为特朗普也是如此
最后一个重要结论是，美国人在一点上与特朗普达成了共识：他们都希望战争尽快结束，并且他们认为特朗普也是这么想的。
6月中旬的福克斯新闻民调显示，70%的登记选民担心战争会变成长期对峙。87%的人表示，避免旷日持久的战争至关重要。
这或许可以解释为什么人们可能愿意接受一份并非最优的协议。政府曾表示战争可能持续约四至六周，但如今已经拖延了近四个月。
在此期间，美国人没有看到多少实质性成果。而且鉴于他们从一开始就没有太多理由参战，他们决定抽身而退也就顺理成章了。
或许最能说明问题的是，他们认为特朗普现在正是这么做的——试图抽身了事。
哥伦比亚广播公司的民调询问美国人，他们认为特朗普政府达成这项协议，是因为已经实现了所有目标，还是因为“希望结束冲突”。
三分之二的美国人表示，政府这么做只是因为想要尽快结束战争。
The scale of Trump’s political blunder in Iran is coming into focus
2026-06-22T16:52:01.039Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/22/politics/trump-iran-deal-poll
- A new CBS News-YouGov poll reveals Americans overwhelmingly want the Iran war to end now — but because they want to be finished with it, not because they think the US has won.
- Only 22% of those polled believe the Trump administration’s agreement favors the United States over Iran.
- Most Americans think the war has created more problems than it solved.
AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.
The first major poll conducted since the Trump administration signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran has a point that seems like good news for Trump: Americans overwhelmingly agree he should end the war rather than push for more concessions.
But it’s not because they actually like the agreement; it’s because they think the war is a debacle, and they just want to be done with it.
A new CBS News-YouGov poll shows that even as Americans get their first glimpse — however tentative — of the finish line, it hasn’t improved their views of the war one iota.
And as the administration enters a new phase in this process, it’s worth a check-in on where the politics stand and how they could impact what comes next.
The poll shows 78% of Americans said they’d prefer to end the war now, while just 22% wanted to hold out — to “continue … until Iran gives up more.”
At least one Trump political adviser was celebrating that finding on Sunday. He suggested it showed the American people were on Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s side on the accord with Iran.
But the rest of the poll makes it abundantly clear that’s not true.
When asked to actually review the agreement, just 22% of Americans said it’s better for the United States than Iran, while significantly more — 37% — said it’s better for Iran. (The other 41% said it was about equal.)
The percentage who said it’s better for the US included just 39% of Republicans. So just to underscore, only about 4 in 10 members of Trump’s own party think his administration negotiated a win here.
Americans also said 45%-29% that the war hasn’t been successful from a strategic standpoint.
But that last finding might undersell how much of a strategic defeat Americans see this as.
Perhaps nothing drives that home like polling on the nuclear issue — Trump’s most critical goal.
While Trump has repeatedly asserted his aim was to permanently stop Iran’s nuclear program, the CBS poll shows 69% of Americans and even 45% of Republicans said this agreement, if finalized to bring the war to a conclusion, won’t accomplish that.
This echoes a Fox News poll conducted the weekend the framework was being negotiated in mid-June. It showed registered voters said 64%-35% that it was unlikely a peace agreement would stop Iran from producing nuclear weapons.
Notably, the agreement leaves many details for later, so there are still plenty of issues to iron out on the nuclear front.
But the Trump administration appears to be walking back some of its goals, and these findings get at the rank pessimism that exists in the American public.
The new CBS poll also shows:
- 68% said the agreement, if finalized, won’t have stopped Iran from threatening other countries. Nearly half (48%) of polled Republicans agreed with that statement.
- 79% said it hasn’t made Iran’s leaders more pro-US.
- 74% said it hasn’t made Iran’s people safe and free, which Trump had said was one of his goals earlier this year.
A striking and consistent detail in polling on the Iran war are findings that suggest the war is not only viewed as a failure, but as counterproductive.
And that continues today.
Trump claims the war has destroyed Iran militarily and pulverized its nuclear program. But just 37% of Americans say Iran is weaker today than before the war began.
More than 6 in 10 say Iran is as strong as it was before (38%) or stronger (25%).
While Iran has surely suffered major military losses, it has also demonstrated significant leverage via its now-proven ability to lock down the Strait of Hormuz and jeopardize the world economy.
Speaking of which, Americans think the war is likely to continue exacting a toll in the months and years to come.
A clear 57% majority said the war has actually “created more problems than it solved.” That’s nearly three times the 21% who said it had solved more problems than it created.
And when it comes to that impact, Americans seem to think Trump simply didn’t understand what he was getting himself into.
The poll asked whether people thought the Trump administration understood the impact the war would have on the world economy.
Fully 64% thought the war impacted the world economy more than the administration expected. That includes 51% of polled Republicans.
Of course, there’s plenty to back that up — both from Trump’s own public comments as well as reporting. CNN reported in March that the administration underestimated Iran’s willingness to try and close the Strait of Hormuz.
Americans are just anxious for it to be over — and think Trump is, too
The last big lesson is that Americans are on the same page with Trump in a way: They just want it to be over, and they think Trump does, too.
The Fox News poll in mid-June had shown 70% of registered voters said they were concerned the war would become a long-term commitment. And 87% said it was important to avoid a prolonged war.
That likely helps explain why people might be willing to accept a suboptimal agreement. The administration said the war was likely to last about four to six weeks, and it’s now dragged on for nearly four months.
Americans haven’t seen many deliverables during that time. And given they didn’t see much reason to go to war in the first place, it’s not a big logical leap that they would decide to cut bait.
And perhaps most tellingly, that’s what they think Trump is doing right now — trying to cut bait.
The CBS poll asked whether Americans thought the Trump administration was reaching this agreement because it had met all of its goals, or because it “wants the conflict to be over.”
Two-thirds of Americans said it was because the administration just wants to wrap it up.
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