2026年6月16日 / 美国东部时间下午12:46 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
作者：乔安妮·斯托克 核查制作人
乔安妮·斯托克是CBS News Confirmed的核查制作人。她此前曾担任库尔德斯坦24英语频道总编辑以及《国防邮报》执行主编。15年来，她结合开源调查方法与实地报道，报道冲突、恐怖主义和虚假信息相关议题。
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大型航运企业仍认为途经霍尔木兹海峡“风险极高”，并表示在美伊协议更多细节公布前，企业几乎没有恢复该关键航道正常运营的意愿。尽管特朗普总统保证海峡航线“完全安全、可靠且完好无损”，但多家企业表示，需要明确的安全保障。
美国和伊朗将于周五在瑞士签署谅解备忘录，正式解除两国对霍尔木兹海峡航运施加的限制。在美伊于2月28日开战前，全球约五分之一的石油和天然气供应通常经由该海峡运输。
伊朗为报复美伊空袭，对商业船只发动袭击并发出威胁，导致航运几乎完全停滞，全球能源价格大幅上涨。
特朗普在周日通过其Truth Social平台发布的帖子中宣布了与伊朗达成的协议，他表示：“我在此正式授权全面开放霍尔木兹海峡，免除通行费，并同时授权立即解除美国海军的封锁。”
“全球的船只，发动引擎吧，”特朗普说道，“让石油流通起来！”
次日，特朗普称油轮“开始启航，许多装载着石油的油轮正驶出霍尔木兹海峡”。他表示，船只可以选择海峡的南部航线，“这条航线完全安全、可靠且完好无损。还有其他航行区域，没错！”
然而，就在特朗普敦促恢复海峡通航之际，包括美军在内的多国海军联合行动机构——联合海事信息中心周一警告称，美国对伊朗港口和船只的封锁将持续至周五，“以待停火协议执行”。
一份 advisory note 中写道：“由于封锁行动，霍尔木兹海峡的海上安全威胁级别仍处于‘严重’等级。”
在这些矛盾的信号中，航运企业对伊朗和美国达成的临时协议表示欢迎，但仍持谨慎态度。
“我们的政策保持不变”
特朗普宣布与伊朗达成谅解备忘录协议后，全球股市大幅上涨，原油价格本周已下跌近5%。
公开追踪数据显示，船东一直在重新调配空船，以期海峡重新开放后需求激增。本周已有少量油轮途经该航道，但与战前日均约135艘的水平相比，只是杯水车薪。
劳埃德船级社的航运分析师理查德·米德表示：“绝不能将这一切误认为是恢复常态。”
国际最大航运协会之一BIMCO的安全与安保主管雅各布·拉森周一表示：“由于缺乏细节，加上过往过度乐观的保证历史，我们认为航运业的安全局势仍然动荡，目前仍认为船只开始通行的风险极高。”
他补充道：“下一步是让船东确信，途经霍尔木兹海峡不仅是被允许的，而且是安全的。”
大多数航运企业似乎都在等待具体的保障措施。
日本大型物流企业三井物产商船三井的发言人周二对CBS News表示，该公司意识到“停火态势出现进展”，但“我们的政策保持不变：在安全性得到充分确认之前，不会恢复运营”。
该公司总裁田村丈太郎在接受《金融时报》采访时表示：“需要到位的不仅仅是相关国家之间的简单协议，还必须是实质性的，并转化为霍尔木兹海峡的实际局势，这样航运公司才能放心通行。”
“考虑到过去几个月的经历，我认为至少需要几周时间，甚至可能一个月，”他说。
即便如此，这或许还是乐观估计。
另一家大型航运企业赫伯罗特的发言人莱昂·舒尔茨周二对CBS News表示，海峡恢复正常货运流量“最有可能需要大约三到四个月”。
舒尔茨表示，德黑兰和华盛顿之间达成的临时协议确实为安全局势改善“带来了希望”，并补充称，“目前正在重新评估赫伯罗特船只途经霍尔木兹海峡的风险评估”。
丹麦航运巨头马士基周一对路透社表示，目前“评估该协议的影响为时过早”，并补充道：“现阶段，我们在该地区的运营没有任何变化。”
“确凿证据”
恢复霍尔木兹海峡真正的正常通航之路，或许无论从字面还是比喻意义上来说，都是雷区。
路透社周一援引航运业消息人士的话称，清除海峡内的伊朗水雷可能需要40至50天。
BIMCO的拉森周一表示：“该地区的水雷威胁仍是当前以及未来的担忧，必须建立无雷航线。”
美伊之间的协议文本尚未由任何一方政府公开，预计近期为安全重新开放海峡的实际步骤仍不明确。
从长期来看，伊朗在过去109天里展示了将霍尔木兹海峡作为施压点的有效能力，分析师认为，再次关闭海峡的风险可能挥之不去。
海上保险公司表示，他们尚未准备好调整战争期间飙升的保费。新加坡一名海上保险商告诉劳埃德船级社：“保费涨得快，降得慢”，并补充称，只有在看到该地区船只安全改善的“确凿证据”后，才会调整价格。
Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is “safe, secure and pristine.” Shipping companies aren’t convinced.
June 16, 2026 / 12:46 PM EDT / CBS News
By Joanne Stocker Verification producer
Joanne Stocker is a verification producer for CBS News Confirmed. She was previously chief editor of Kurdistan 24 English and managing editor at The Defense Post. She has combined open-source investigation methods with on-the-ground reporting to cover conflict, terrorism, and misinformation for over 15 years.
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Major shipping companies still see transiting the Strait of Hormuz as “very risky” and say there’s little appetite to resume normal operations through the vital waterway until more details of the U.S.-Iran deal become clear. Multiple companies say firm security guarantees are needed, despite an assurance from President Trump of a “totally safe, secure, and pristine” route through the strait.
The U.S. and Iran are set to sign a memorandum of understanding Friday in Switzerland that will formally lift restrictions imposed by both countries on traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Before the U.S. and Israel launched their war with Iran on Feb. 28, about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies typically transited the strait.
Iran’s attacks on and threats against commercial vessels, launched in retaliation for the U.S.-Israel strikes, brought that traffic to a virtual standstill, driving global energy prices up significantly.
Mr. Trump, in a Sunday post on his Truth Social platform announcing the agreement with Iran, said: “I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade.”
“Ships of the World, start your engines,” Mr. Trump said. “Let the oil flow!”
A person sits in shallow water as cargo and commercial vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Monday, June 8, 2026. Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP
A day later, the president said tankers were “starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz.” He said ships could take a southern route through the strait, “which is totally safe, secure, and pristine. There are other areas of travel, also!!!”
As Mr. Trump urged a resumption of strait crossings, however, the Joint Maritime Information Center, a multinational naval operation that includes the U.S. military, warned Monday that the U.S. blockade of Iran’s ports and vessels would remain in effect until Friday, “pending execution” of the ceasefire.
“The maritime security threat level in the Strait of Hormuz remains SEVERE due to blockade operations,” read an advisory note.
Amid the mixed messages, shippers have welcomed the tentative agreement between Iran and the U.S., but remained cautious.
“Our policy remains unchanged”
Mr. Trump’s announcement of an agreement on the memorandum of understanding with Iran sparked a major rally on global equity markets, and crude oil prices have dropped nearly 5% this week.
Public tracking data shows shipowners have been repositioning empty vessels in anticipation of a spike in demand when the strait reopens, and a handful of tankers have transited the waterway this week, but compared to pre-war levels — around 135 ships per day — it’s just a trickle.
Shipping analyst Richard Meade at Lloyd’s List said “none of this should be mistaken for a return to normality.”
“Due to lack of details and a history of overly optimistic reassurances, we believe the security situation for the shipping industry remains volatile, and we still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point,” Jakob Larsen, head of safety and security at BIMCO, one of the largest international shipping associations, said Monday.
“The next step is for shipowners to be reassured that transiting the Strait of Hormuz is not only permitted but also safe,” he added.
Most shippers appear to be waiting for concrete assurances.
A spokesperson for Mitsui OSK Lines, a major Japanese logistics company, told CBS News on Tuesday that the firm recognizes “signs of movement toward a ceasefire,” but its “policy remains unchanged: Operations will not be resumed until safety has been sufficiently confirmed.”
“What will have to come in place is not just a simple agreement between the relevant countries, but it has to be material and translated into the real situations in the Strait of Hormuz, so that shipping lines can make themselves comfortable to go through,” the company’s CEO Jotaro Tamura told the Financial Times.
“Given the experiences in the last couple of months, I think it’s reasonable to assume that it may take at least a couple of weeks, or if not, a month,” he said.
Even that could be optimistic.
A return to normal cargo flows in the strait will “most likely take around three to four months,” Leon Schulz, a spokesman for Hapag-Lloyd, another major shipping company, told CBS News on Tuesday.
The tentative agreement between Tehran and Washington does give “reason to hope” for an improved security situation, Schulz said, adding that the “risk assessment for transits of Hapag-Lloyd vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is currently being reevaluated.”
The Danish shipping giant Maersk told the Reuters news agency on Monday that it was still “too early to assess” the impact of the deal, adding: “At this stage, there are no changes to our operations in the region.”
“Solid evidence”
The path back to real normality in the Strait of Hormuz may be a minefield, literally and figuratively.
Reuters quoted sources in the shipping industry as saying Monday that removing Iranian sea mines from the strait could take 40 to 50 days.
“The threat of mines in the area remains a concern immediately as well as further down the line, and mine-free routes need to be established,” Larsen, of BIMCO, said Monday.
The text of the agreement between the U.S. and Iran has not been shared by either government, and the practical steps expected in the immediate future to reopen the strait safely remain unclear.
In the longer term, Iran has demonstrated an ability over the last 109 days to effectively use the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure-point, and analysts believe the risks of another closure may linger.
Marine insurance firms have said they’re not yet ready to readjust rates that soared during the war. Premiums are “quick to go up, slow to go down,” one maritime insurer in Singapore told Lloyd’s List, adding that it would only change its prices after seeing “solid evidence” of safety improvements for ships in the region.
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