2026-06-16T14:43:55.373Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/16/politics/us-intel-assessment-iran-shut-strait-hormuz
据三名知情人士透露，美国情报机构近日评估认为，伊朗如今可随时有效封锁霍尔木兹海峡的通航通道，这意味着伊朗政权凭借此次战争获得了损害全球经济的强大新能力。
无论本周五即将正式签署的、旨在开放这条关键水道作为核谈判前奏的框架协议如何规定，伊朗都已在本轮冲突中证明了其能够封锁海峡通航，而美国情报评估显示，这种情况可能再次发生。
“我们如今实际上已将海峡的控制权拱手让给了伊朗——这是比任何核武器都更强大的武器，”一位熟悉美国情报评估的消息人士告诉CNN，并强调这场战争从根本上改变了德黑兰未来利用类似战术的思路。
另一位知情人士表示，伊朗同样意识到，它可以将针对海湾国家能源基础设施的精准打击作为一种不对称能力加以利用——该国在本轮冲突中已借此取得了显著成效，这是伊朗未来可用于谋取自身利益的另一项工具。
美国不得不与伊朗进行密集谈判以全面重新开放海峡，这凸显了伊朗持续拥有的影响力。
CNN已向白宫和国家情报总监办公室置评请求。
一名美国高级官员告诉CNN，除非海峡保持开放且伊朗遵守其所同意的其他条款，否则伊朗无法获得框架协议下的“任何好处”。这位高级官员未具体说明这些好处的内容，但解释称，美国将随着伊朗恢复海峡通航逐步解除封锁。这位高级官员补充道：“如果伊朗履约，那么相应的纾困措施就会跟进，美国的影响力将全程有效。”
另一位熟悉框架协议的消息人士也向CNN承认，伊朗曾试图破坏海峡内的能源自由通航，但此举在此过程中激怒了中国和海湾国家。“伊朗这么做是要付出代价的，”该消息人士补充道，并指出未来任何有效封锁海峡的企图都将自取其辱。
跟踪船舶动向的航运业官员和专家表示，协议内容的不确定性以及其他风险，也可能让这条关键咽喉要道的通航量在数周乃至数月内维持极低水平。
伊朗认为自己能够继续将海峡作为武器的主要原因之一是，其仍保留了大量武器储备，包括导弹、无人机、导弹发射架以及数百艘可用于骚扰试图通过该水道的船只、并可用于布设水雷的小型高速快艇。CNN此前曾报道，伊朗还在以超出美国预期的速度重建其军工基础，且已启动新的无人机生产线。
有关方面曾讨论，海峡重新开放后，盟友可能会以某种方式负责海峡的巡逻警戒，但目前尚不清楚具体将如何运作，而最新的情报评估已将这种可能性纳入考量，消息人士称。
即便美伊双方似乎已签署一项旨在重新开放海峡、结束当前冲突的协议，多名消息人士表示，伊朗仍在策划一项经济“核选项”：如果与美国的谈判破裂，伊朗将指使也门主要代理武装胡塞武装封锁连接红海与印度洋的曼德海峡——这是另一个全球贸易咽喉要道，在伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡的数月里，这里曾是航运生命线。
综合来看，美国近期的情报评估凸显了唐纳德·特朗普总统发动这场战争时未充分考虑伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡意愿的持久影响，并对德黑兰未来将全球经济作为武器的能力提出了新的质疑——这一问题超出了两国任何可能重新开放这条关键水道的框架协议的范畴。
据三名知情人士透露，自伊朗采取封锁海峡的行动以来，美国情报机构一直在持续评估伊朗未来可能以何种方式、在何种情况下动用这一手段。
尽管情报界目前尚未达成共识，但多位熟悉美国评估报告的消息人士称，伊朗能够在未投入大量作战能力的情况下封锁海峡并打击海湾国家的能源基础设施，这一事实已让其气焰愈发嚣张。
而如今伊朗已证明其拥有封锁海峡的可靠意图和能力——其中两名知情人士透露，一些美国官员认为伊朗未来更有可能采取这一行动。
周一，一名高级政府官员表示，其目标是“建立一种机制，确保海峡永远不会再次被封锁”。
副总统JD·万斯周一在接受CNN记者杰克·塔珀采访时表示，他认为伊朗愿意与美国达成框架协议的原因之一是“他们意识到自己对霍尔木兹海峡的影响力正在减弱”。
周一早些时候，特朗普表示，海峡“已经部分开放”，并将于本周五完全开放——届时美伊将正式签署谅解备忘录。
“他们正在搜寻已经发现的几枚水雷，但……现在船只已经开始通行了，”特朗普在七国集团峰会期间与法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的会晤中说道，“到周五，海峡将完全开放。”
“我认为我们不需要太多帮助，因为我们已经达成了协议，海峡将保持开放，而且是免费通行的。在这一点上我们曾有过一点争执，但最终确定了免费通行，”特朗普补充道。
但他几乎未提及任何协议可能如何阻止伊朗未来采取类似行动封锁海峡，尤其是在美国解除海军封锁、并最终恢复该地区更常态的军事部署之后。
长期以来，伊朗一直威胁称，若遭到包括美国和以色列在内的外国敌对势力袭击，将封锁霍尔木兹海峡，但在特朗普今年早些时候与以色列一同发动军事行动之前，伊朗并未展示出成功封锁海峡的能力。
多名消息人士此前透露，特朗普政府此前低估了伊朗今年早些时候封锁海峡的意愿，原因是官员们认为，封锁海峡对伊朗造成的伤害会超过美国——这一观点因去年夏天美国打击伊朗核设施后伊朗发出的封锁威胁并未兑现而得到强化。
特朗普政府的高级官员还确信，中国最终会利用其对伊朗的影响力，阻止伊朗有效封锁海峡。
因此，两名熟悉当时军事规划讨论的消息人士称，特朗普政府决定优先打击伊朗军事目标，而非投入兵力威慑伊朗试图有效封锁霍尔木兹海峡。
但冲突打响几天后，特朗普政府的误判便已显现。
“失去对海峡的控制将是这个时代最大的失误，因为美国若不全力以赴，根本无法应对这张牌，”一名参与战争军事规划的第四位消息人士说道，“如今，除非集结大规模兵力，否则我们无法挽回海峡的控制权。”
美国官员现在认为，伊朗最终封锁海峡，是对特朗普早期宣称这场战争的目标是推翻伊朗政权的回应——伊朗将此举视为一场需要以史无前例的方式升级应对的生存威胁，第二位消息人士称。
该消息人士指出，伊朗并未在炸弹投放后立即采取这一行动，而是等待了数日，直到确信自己了解了美国的真实目标。
“伊朗在升级行动的方式上经过了深思熟虑，”该消息人士补充道。
所有消息人士均表示，目前伊朗正在调整其行动策略，尚不清楚将于日内瓦正式签署的框架协议将如何改变现状。
但显而易见的是，伊朗凭借其已证明的封锁海峡的能力，获得了巨大的影响力。
一位消息人士还指出，伊朗也清楚自己可以指使胡塞武装封锁曼德海峡，但他们意识到采取如此激进的行动将破坏即将启动的核谈判相关外交进程。
该消息人士称，同时封锁曼德海峡和霍尔木兹海峡将彻底摧毁全球经济。
另一位熟悉美国近期情报评估的消息人士告诉CNN，值得注意的是，胡塞武装尚未恢复对美国或其他欧洲船只的大规模袭击，但曾表示任何悬挂以色列国旗或由以色列拥有的船只都是合法攻击目标。该消息人士指出，将潜在打击目标范围扩大到以色列船只之外，将代表一次严重的升级。
消息人士称，伊朗迄今一直阻止胡塞武装采取这一行动，因为他们知道这可能会破坏正在进行的和平谈判。
但如果谈判破裂、美国恢复全面军事行动——这是特朗普一直谨慎避免的情况，伊朗仍可动用这张牌。
US intel assesses Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz at will from now on
2026-06-16T14:43:55.373Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/16/politics/us-intel-assessment-iran-shut-strait-hormuz
US intelligence agencies have recently assessed that Iran can effectively shut down access to the Strait of Hormuz at will from now on, meaning the country’s regime has acquired a powerful new ability to hurt the global economy as a result of the war, according to three sources familiar with the findings.
Regardless of the framework agreement that is due to be formally signed on Friday to open the key waterway as a prelude to nuclear talks, Iran proved it can shut off access to the strait during the current conflict and US intelligence assessments suggest that could happen again.
“We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait – a weapon more powerful than any nuke,” one of the sources familiar with the US intelligence assessments told CNN, emphasizing how the war has fundamentally altered Tehran’s thinking about leveraging similar tactics in the future.
Iran has similarly learned it can leverage targeted strikes against the energy infrastructure of Gulf countries as an asymmetric capability after doing so to great effect during the war, another tool it can use to its advantage going forward, a second source familiar with the assessments said.
The US has had to negotiate with Iran intensively to fully re-open the strait, underscoring the Iranians’ continued leverage.
CNN approached the White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence for comment.
A senior US official told CNN that Iran cannot access “any benefits” of the framework agreement unless the strait remains open and it abides by the other points it agreed to. The senior official did not detail what those benefits are, but explained that the US will wind down its blockade in proportion with Iran restoring traffic in the strait. If Iran “performs, the relief follows and American leverage holds the entire way”, the senior official added.
Another source familiar with the framework agreement also acknowledged to CNN that Iran tried to subvert the free flow of energy in the strait but it upset China and Gulf countries in the process. “Iran pays a price when they do this,” the source added, noting any attempt to effectively close the strait in the future would carry self-inflicted consequences.
Uncertainty over what’s in the agreement and other risks are also likely to keep traffic through the critical chokepoint to a trickle for weeks or months, according to shipping industry officials and experts who track ship movements.
One of the main reasons Iran believes it can continue to weaponize the strait is it still retains a significant portion of its weapons stockpile, including missiles, drones, missile launchers, and hundreds of small fast boats that continue to harass shippers attempting to transit the waterway and can be used to lay mines. Iran has also been rebuilding its military industrial base faster than the US anticipated and has already begun new drone production, CNN has reported.
There have been discussions that allies may police the strait in some way once it is open, but at the moment it is unclear how that would work and the latest intel assessments take that possibility into consideration, the sources said.
And even as the two sides appear to have signed an agreement that would reopen the strait and end the current conflict, multiple sources said Iran has been plotting an economic “nuclear option” if negotiations with the US fall apart: getting the Houthis, the Iranians’ chief proxy force in Yemen, to close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean — another global trade chokepoint that has served as a shipping lifeline amid Iran’s months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Taken together, the recent US intelligence assessments underscore the lasting impact of President Donald Trump’s decision to initiate the conflict without fully accounting for Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz and raise fresh questions about Tehran’s ability to weaponize the global economy going forward — a problem that extends beyond the scope of any framework agreement between the two countries that may reopen the key waterway.
In the time since Iran moved to close the strait, US intelligence agencies have been continuously reassessing how and under what circumstances they might try to use that same lever in the future, according to three sources familiar with the assessments.
While there is not currently a consensus within the intelligence community, multiple sources familiar with the US assessments said Iran has been emboldened by the fact it was able to both close the strait and target the energy infrastructure of Gulf countries without expending significant capabilities.
And now that Iran has proven it has credible intent and capability to close the strait — some US officials say they are more likely to take that step in the future, two of the sources familiar with US intelligence said.
On Monday, a senior administration official said that the aim is “to create a mechanism that makes it impossible” for the strait to be closed again.
Vice President JD Vance told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Monday that he believes one of the reasons Iran was willing reach a framework agreement with the US is “they recognize they’re losing that leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.”
Earlier on Monday, Trump said that the strait is “already partially opened” and that it will fully open Friday, when the US and Iran are set to formally sign a memorandum of understanding.
“They’re doing a little hunting for a couple of mines that they’ve already found, but … ships are starting to go out now,” Trump said during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron at the G7 summit. “On Friday, it’ll be completely open.”
“I don’t think we’re going to need much help, because we have an agreement where it’s going to be open, and it’s toll-free. We had a little argument on that; it’s toll-free,” Trump added.
But he has said little about how any deal might prevent Iran from taking similar steps to close the strait in the future, particularly once the US lifts its naval blockade and, eventually, returns to a more normal force posture in the region.
Iran had long threatened to shut down the strait in response to an attack by foreign adversaries, including the US and Israel, but had not demonstrated the ability to successfully do so prior to Trump’s decision to launch combat operations along with Israel earlier this year.
One reason the Trump administration underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the strait earlier this year, multiple sources previously said, was officials believed doing so would hurt Iran more than the US — a view that was bolstered by Iran’s empty threats to act in the strait after US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last summer.
Top Trump officials were also confident that China would ultimately use its influence over Iran to prevent it from effectively closing the strait.
As a result, the Trump administration decided to prioritize US strikes against Iranian military targets rather than dedicate assets to deterring Iran from attempting to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, two of the sources familiar with the planning discussions at the time said.
But days into the conflict, it was clear the Trump administration miscalculated.
“Losing control of the strait will be the biggest blunder of this era because it is a card the US cannot counter without going all in,” a fourth source involved with the military planning for the war said. “Now there is no way to undo the strait without amassing a massive force.”
US officials now believe that Iran ultimately closed the strait in response to Trump’s early statement declaring the goal of the war was to topple the regime — viewing it as an existential threat that warranted escalating in an unprecedented way, the second source said.
The same source noted that Iran did not immediately take that step when bombs were dropped but rather waited a few days until they believed they knew what the true US objective was.
“Iran was deliberate in how they escalated,” the source added.
At this stage, the Iranians are calibrating their actions, all the sources said and it’s unclear how the framework agreement that is due to be formally signed in Geneva will change the picture.
But it is clear Iran has acquired significant leverage with its proven ability to shut the strait.
Iran also knows it can get the Houthis to shut down Bab-el-Mandeb but they are aware taking such drastic action would derail the diplomatic process with nuclear talks due to begin, one of the sources noted.
Shutting Bab-el-Mandeb down, combined with shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would completely blow up the global economy, the same source said.
The second source familiar with recent US intelligence assessments told CNN it is notable that the Houthis have not resumed large-scale attacks against US or other European vessels but have said that any Israeli-flagged or owned ships are fair game. Expanding the scope of potential targets beyond Israeli vessels would represent a serious escalation, the source noted.
The Iranians have only held back so far from enlisting the Houthis to take that step, the sources said, because they know it could derail ongoing peace talks.
But it remains a card Iran could play if the pursuit of a deal falls apart and the US resumes full combat operations — something Trump has been wary to do.
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