2026年6月16日 10:06 UTC / 路透社
作者：杰森·朗
2026年6月15日，美国华盛顿特区，UFC自由250活动落幕时烟花在白宫上空绽放。路透社/埃里克·李 购买授权 打开新标签页
- 38%的民调受访者认为美国不会作为一个统一国家存续250年
- 64%的人认为美国民主正面临失败风险，较去年8月的57%有所上升
- 多数受访者认为美国建国250周年庆祝活动已变得过于政治化
华盛顿6月16日路透电 — 随着美国下月迎来250周年诞辰，一项路透社/益普索民调显示，五分之二的美国人认为美国无法在之后再延续250年，该民调凸显了美国社会对国家自我认知的深刻分歧。
这项为期四天的民调于周一结束，此时正值唐纳德·特朗普总统为7月4日独立日庆祝活动带来的两极分化场面。7月4日将纪念被称为美国国父的人们宣布脱离英国独立250周年。
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特朗普将自己置于诸多纪念活动的中心，包括周日在其生日当天于白宫举办的笼斗比赛。周一他表示，自己将成为7月4日华盛顿庆祝活动的核心嘉宾，这场活动同时也将作为这位共和党人的政治集会，彼时其政党正力争在11月的中期选举中保住国会控制权。
特朗普将其总统任期描述为拯救美国免于被民主党摧毁的行动。民主党领导人则认为，特朗普本人才是民主的威胁，并指控他利用联邦执法机构打压政治批评者。
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约38%的受访者——包括40%的民主党人和26%的共和党人——表示他们认为美国不会在250年后作为一个统一国家存在。仅有62%的人认为国家能够存续下去。
特朗普指责民主党——尤其是前民主党总统乔·拜登政府——非法打压其盟友，包括那些参与2021年1月6日冲击美国国会大厦事件的人，当时的冲击旨在推翻特朗普在2020年总统选举中的败选结果。共和党人还将针对特朗普的多起暗杀企图作为证据，声称其反对者决意使用暴力。
众多民众认为民主面临失败风险
三分之二的受访者——包括85%的民主党人和50%的共和党人——同意“美国民主正面临失败风险”的说法。认为民主处于风险中的整体比例较去年8月的民调上升了，从57%升至当前水平，这一增长由更多共和党人对民主存续能力的担忧推动。
blob:https://www.reuters.com/6665a37e-1c13-414b-a70b-16244da9d855
多年来，特朗普一直 falsely 声称其2020年败选是大范围选民欺诈所致，并一直在推动修改选举法。
约77%的民调受访者认为，未来五年内政治暴力事件有可能增加。
世界头号强国？
民调还显示，认为美国是全球杰出国家的美国人比例正在下降。仅有30%的受访者认为美国是世界上最伟大的国家，较特朗普首届任期内2017年11月路透社/益普索民调的38%有所下滑。持该观点的民主党人比例从26%降至11%，而共和党人的这一比例基本稳定在六成左右。
多数美国人——包括四分之三的民主党人和一半的共和党人——认为美国建国250周年的庆祝活动已变得过于政治化。
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美国人在如何庆祝独立日这类更日常的议题上也存在分歧。52%的共和党人表示，他们的庆祝活动将包括身着红白蓝三色服装——美国国旗的配色，而民主党人的这一比例仅为20%。共和党人比民主党人更有可能计划观看烟花表演，比例分别为46%和28%。
本次民调通过线上开展，收集了全美1537名美国成年人的反馈，结果的误差幅度为正负3个百分点。
杰森·朗 报道；斯科特·马龙与迪帕·巴宾顿 编辑
我们的准则：汤森路透信托原则。
As US nears 250th birthday, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows many Americans doubt it will last another 250 years
June 16, 2026 10:06 AM UTC / Reuters
By Jason Lange
Fireworks explode above the White House at the conclusion of UFC Freedom 250, in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 15, 2026. REUTERS/Eric Lee Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- 38% of poll respondents did not think the US would exist as a single country in 250 years
- 64% said American democracy was in danger of failing, up from 57% in August
- A majority said 250th anniversary celebrations had grown too political
WASHINGTON, June 16 (Reuters) – As the U.S. approaches its 250th birthday next month, two out of five Americans do not believe it will endure another 250 years beyond that, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that highlighted deep divisions over how the nation views itself.
The four-day poll, which concluded on Monday, comes amid the polarizing pageantry that President Donald Trump has brought to celebrations for July 4, which will mark 250 years since the people who became known as the founding fathers of the U.S. declared their independence from Britain.
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Trump has put himself at the center of many of the events to mark the anniversary, including staging a White House cage match on his birthday on Sunday. On Monday he said he would be the main attraction at a July 4 celebration in Washington that will also serve as a political rally for the Republican as his party looks to keep control of Congress in November’s midterm elections.
Trump has framed his presidency as a bid to save America from being destroyed by Democrats. Democratic leaders contend it is Trump who is the danger to democracy and allege he is using federal law enforcement to target political critics.
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Some 38% of respondents in the poll – including 40% of Democrats and 26% of Republicans – said they didn’t think the U.S. will exist as a single country 250 years from now. Just 62% thought their nation would last.
Trump has accused Democrats — and especially the prior presidential administration of Democrat Joe Biden — of illegally targeting his allies, including those involved in the January 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol, which was an attempt to overthrow Trump’s loss in the 2020 presidential election. Republicans also point to multiple assassination attempts against Trump as evidence that the leader’s opponents are bent on violence.
MANY SEE DEMOCRACY IN DANGER OF FAILING
Two-thirds of respondents — including 85% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans — said they agreed with a statement that American democracy was in danger of failing. The overall share seeing democracy at risk was up from 57% in a poll conducted in August of last year, with the increase driven by more Republicans worried about democracy’s staying power.
blob:https://www.reuters.com/6665a37e-1c13-414b-a70b-16244da9d855
Trump for years has claimed falsely that his 2020 loss was the result of widespread voter fraud and has been pushing for changes to voting laws.
Some 77% of poll respondents said it was likely that political violence would increase in the next five years.
GREATEST COUNTRY IN WORLD?
The poll also showed the share of Americans who see the country as a global standout is on the decline. Some 30% of respondents said they considered America the greatest country in the world, down from 38% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in November 2017, during Trump’s first term in office. The share of Democrats with this view fell to 11% from 26%, while the share of Republicans held steady at about six in 10.
A majority of Americans — including three-quarters of Democrats and half of Republicans — said they thought the events celebrating the country’s 250th anniversary had grown too political.
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Americans were also divided along more mundane matters like how to celebrate Independence Day. Some 52% of Republicans said their celebrations would include wearing red, white and blue clothing – the colors of the U.S. national flag – compared to 20% of Democrats. Republicans were more likely than Democrats to say they planned to attend a fireworks show — 46% to 28%.
The poll, which was conducted online, gathered responses from 1,537 U.S. adults nationwide and its results had a margin of error of 3 percentage points in either direction.
Reporting by Jason Lange; editing by Scott Malone and Deepa Babington
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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