2026年6月10日 15:35 美国东部时间 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
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2026年6月10日 / 美国东部时间下午3:35 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
此前的大型首次公开募股（IPO）案例显示，在埃隆·马斯克的火箭公司本周五上市后，其投资者可能将面临一段波动剧烈的行情。
推出大规模IPO的公司往往会在交易最初数日或数周内股价飙升，但随后便会回归理性。这类股票通常会在上市一年后跌破发行价。
“从历史数据来看，大型IPO在上市首12个月往往会出现大幅波动，” Truist金融旗下子公司Truist Advisory Services的股票策略分析师萨姆·格雷雷克（Sam Grelck）表示，“即便那些初期表现亮眼的公司，多数也会在某个时段出现相当显著的回调。”
当然也有例外。据Truist的数据，例如2019年上市的在线视频公司Zoom通讯的股价在首日交易后一路走高，上市一年后仍保持142%的涨幅。
从更长期来看，IPO投资无异于一场赌博。Truist对过去15年间30起规模较大的科技公司IPO进行的分析发现，这些企业在上市首年的平均最大跌幅达55%。其中超过一半的IPO在上市一年后出现负回报。
“短期——也就是一周、一个月、三个月——行情通常表现更好，”格雷雷克说，“随着时间跨度拉长，股价回调和负回报的情况会越来越多。”
佛罗里达大学沃灵顿商学院IPO专家、教授杰伊·里特（Jay Ritter）的独立数据也凸显了公开上市的固有风险。里特在对1980年至2024年间超过9200起IPO的研究中发现，以公司上市首日收盘价买入股票的投资者，其三年经市场调整后的平均回报率为-21%。
SpaceX将其股票定价为每股135美元，预计募资750亿美元，将成为史上规模最大的IPO。上市后，该公司的估值预计将达到1.77万亿美元。
相比之下，这一估值将超过马斯克旗下电动汽车制造商特斯拉（市值1.5万亿美元）、Meta平台公司（市值1.4万亿美元）以及沃伦·巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（市值1.04万亿美元）。
“IPO首日交易的平均涨幅为发行价的19%，因此这桩交易对应的股价涨幅约为每股30美元，”里特在接受CBS新闻采访时表示，“如果你的买入价是135美元，回报会比165美元买入好得多。”
“只有当公司营收实现大幅增长并实现极高的盈利能力，参与此次IPO的投资者才能获得可观回报，”他补充道，“这或许能实现，但并非板上钉钉。”
这对SpaceX的股东意味着什么？
格雷雷克指出，尽管过往IPO案例发出了谨慎预警，但SpaceX未必会重蹈覆辙。
“我们无法确切预测其交易走势，高波动性和潜在负回报的规律也存在例外，”他说，“或许SpaceX会表现极佳，不会出现大幅回调。”
他补充道，可能推高SpaceX股价波动性的一个因素是预计将有大量普通投资者涌入该股。SpaceX此次IPO将30%的股份分配给散户投资者，远高于通常5%至10%的分配比例。
格雷雷克说，这类散户投资者可能更倾向于在公司增长遇挫时抛售股票，而非挺过市场低迷期。
通过指数基金间接持股的影响
SpaceX的表现也会影响那些并未直接持有其股票的人，因为该股预计将被纳入主流指数基金。这意味着数百万美国人将通过其401(k)计划和其他退休计划间接成为SpaceX股东，这类计划通常会投资指数基金。
例如，纳斯达克100指数近期修改了新上市公司的纳入规则，为SpaceX在上市后15个交易日内被纳入该指数铺平了道路。这可能会影响持有追踪该指数的热门交易所交易基金QQQ的投资者。
罗素指数系列也修改了快速纳入规则，允许SpaceX股票在IPO后5个交易日内被纳入。
“追踪该指数的资金规模庞大，因此随着SpaceX被纳入，我认为确实存在系统性买盘可能在一定程度上支撑股价的可能性，”格雷雷克说。
阿兰·谢特（Alain Sherter）编辑
美联社为本报道提供了支持。
Will SpaceX’s IPO soar or sputter? Past IPOs offer clues.
2026-06-10 15:35 EDT / CBS News
By
June 10, 2026 / 3:35 PM EDT / CBS News
Previous large initial public offerings suggest SpaceX investors could be in for a bumpy ride after Elon Musk’s rocket company goes public on Friday.
Companies staging major IPOs often see their share price surge over the first several days or weeks of trading, but then return to earth. Such stocks routinely fall below their offering price after a year.
“Historically, major IPOs have tended to have a good deal of volatility over the first 12 months,” said Sam Grelck, an equity strategy analyst at Truist Advisory Services, a unit of Truist Financial. “Even those that have performed well in many cases have tended to have pretty significant drawdowns at some point.”
To be sure, there are exceptions. For example, shares of online video company Zoom Communications soared after their 2019 market debut and remained 142% to the good after the offering, according to Truist data.
Over the longer term, IPOs are a crapshoot. A Truist analysis of 30 sizable technology IPOs over the past 15 years found that the companies had an average maximum loss of 55% in their first year of trading. More than half of those offerings posted negative returns a year after their debut.
“The near term — so one week, one month, three months — is stronger,” Grelck said. “As you get to longer horizons, those drawdowns and the negative returns start to come in a little bit more.”
Separate data from Jay Ritter, an IPO expert and professor at the University of Florida’s Warrington College of Business, also underscores the inherent risk in public offerings. The average three-year market-adjusted return for investors who bought shares at a company’s closing price on its first day of trading is -21%, Ritter found in research spanning more than 9,200 IPOs from 1980 to 2024.
SpaceX priced its stock at $135 and expects to raise $75 billion, making it the largest-ever IPO. After the offering, the company is projected to be valued at $1.77 trillion.
By comparison, that would make it larger than Musk’s electric car maker, Tesla, which has a market value of $1.5 trillion; Meta Platforms ($1.4 trillion); and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway ($1.04 trillion).
“IPOs go up 19% [on average] on the first day of trading from the offer price, so in this deal that would correspond to about $30 a share,” Ritter told CBS News. “The return is going to be much better if your purchase price was at $135 than $165.”
“Investors buying in are only going to make a decent return if the company grows its revenue enormously and becomes very highly profitable,” he added. “This could happen, but it’s not guaranteed to happen.”
What does this mean for SpaceX shareholders?
While past IPOs offer reasons for caution, SpaceX won’t necessarily follow the same trajectory, Grelck noted.
“We don’t know exactly how it’s going to trade. There are exceptions to the high-volatility, potential negative returns,” he said. “Maybe SpaceX will perform very well and not have a major drawdown.”
One factor that could drive volatility in SpaceX shares is the many ordinary investors expected to pile into the stock, he added. SpaceX is allocating 30% of the IPO shares to retail investors, far above the typical 5% to 10% allocation.
Such investors might be more inclined to dump their shares if the company’s growth falters, rather than ride out the storm, Grelck said.
Exposure through indexes
SpaceX’s performance will also affect people who don’t directly own its shares, as the stock is slated to be included in major index funds. That means millions of Americans will become shareholders in SpaceX through their 401(k) and other retirement plans, which commonly invest in index funds.
For example, the Nasdaq-100 index recently changed its rules for newly traded companies, paving the way for SpaceX to be added to the index within 15 trading days of its public listing. That could affect people who own shares of the popular QQQ exchange-traded fund, which tracks the index.
The Russell indices also changed their fast-entry rules, allowing SpaceX stock to be included within five trading days of the IPO.
“There’s a lot of money tracking that index, so as SpaceX enters, I think there’s a real possibility that there’s a systematic buying that could support shares, at least to some extent,” Grelck said.
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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