2026-06-10T10:05:11.712Z / 路透社
华盛顿6月10日路透电 — 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在迎来80岁生日之际，试图展现政治强势，但国内外遭遇的一系列挫折正暴露其权力的局限性，并将他推向他曾告诉助手们坚决要避免的跛鸭任期状态。
在其第二任期即将满17个月之际，法院频频驳回其举措，他结束伊朗战争的努力陷入停滞，支持率也有所下滑。国会中的一些共和党同僚也开始违抗他——尽管他对核心支持者的掌控依然稳固。
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尽管如此，特朗普仍展现出不容小觑的影响力：他协助罢免了党内初选在任的共和党议员，并推进了激进的贸易政策。他还在华盛顿推动了多项引人注目的建筑项目，堪称多年来美国总统发起的最雄心勃勃的建筑行动之一。
这一态势正值11月中期选举的数月前，特朗普所在的共和党正竭力维持对国会的控制权。如果共和党丢失参众两院中的一院或两院，民主党将可能加速他滑向跛鸭任期——历史上，若总统无法再次参选，其影响力将逐渐减弱，国内政策优先事项也会受阻。
据一位要求匿名以讨论敏感内部事务的总统顾问透露，白宫正试图阻止这一叙事过早发酵，并明确告知共和党议员，特朗普仍能决定他们的政治命运。
但随着部分共和党人愈发愿意与特朗普对抗，该顾问承认，他的权威开始削弱已是不可避免。
“尤其是在中期选举之后，他自然会逐渐失去影响力，”这位顾问说道。
据一位要求匿名的前高级助手透露，特朗普曾私下告诉幕僚，他考虑第三次参选总统（这在美国宪法中是被禁止的）的原因之一，就是为了避免公众认为他可能沦为跛鸭总统并陷入“无关紧要”的境地。
白宫发言人奥利维亚·威尔士表示：“特朗普总统是共和党毫无争议的领袖，他致力于维持共和党在国会的多数席位。”
健康状况遭审视
对特朗普政治地位的质疑，恰逢外界对其个人体能的审视愈发 intensifying。
路透社/益普索2月的一项民调显示，61%的美国人认为特朗普随着年龄增长变得愈发反复无常，4月的另一项民调则显示多数民众担忧他的性情和精神敏锐度。
作为就职时年龄最大的美国总统，特朗普将于本周日在白宫草坪举办一场终极格斗冠军赛（UFC）笼斗比赛，以此庆祝自己的80岁生日。
今年年初曾近乎每周外出旅行，但自2月28日发动伊朗战争以来，特朗普基本都待在白宫或其位于佛罗里达州的海湖庄园。此后他仅进行了少量国内行程。
他每日的公开日程主要包括“行政时间”和闭门政策会议。他在Truth Social平台上的出镜率更高，全天乃至深夜都会在上面发帖。
此前有公众场合拍到特朗普脚踝肿胀、手部有淤青，其医生称这只是“轻微”问题，随后特朗普在例行体检后宣称自己身体状况极佳。
另一位要求匿名的白宫高级官员表示，特朗普迫切希望避免人们将他与民主党前任总统乔·拜登相提并论——拜登在82岁卸任前曾面临履职能力的质疑。
即便如此，仍有镜头拍到特朗普在活动中偶尔打盹，包括周一在麦迪逊广场花园举行的NBA总决赛现场。随着他闭眼的片段在网上 viral 传播，特朗普的助手们在社交媒体上反击称，他只是在眨眼或全神贯注地倾听。
白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔将特朗普描述为“美国历史上最敏锐、最亲民的总统”。
影响力渐弱
分析人士一致认为，即便特朗普的政治影响力减弱，他仍可依靠行政命令塑造政策，并在国际舞台上更自由地行事——总统在单方面行动上拥有更大的回旋空间。
尽管如此，仍有迹象表明特朗普的影响力正在削弱。
虽然不太可能出现共和党全面倒戈的情况，但部分仍在任至明年1月的落选在任议员已经开始反对他的部分政策议程，并暗示会抵制他的内阁提名。
过去两周，参众两院的小型共和党派系已与民主党联手，就伊朗战争对他提出谴责，否决了与其私人舞厅相关的10亿美元拨款，并迫使他放弃了18亿美元的政治盟友资助计划——这些盟友声称自己是“政治迫害”的受害者。
随着特朗普在实现政策目标上愈发吃力，他愈发沉迷于自己的建筑项目。他不仅越来越多地宣传正在修建的华丽舞厅，还提及国家广场倒影池的翻新工程以及一座拟建的凯旋门。
特朗普可能继续行使权力的一个途径是参与挑选共和党2028年总统候选人，目前这场竞选被视为副总统JD·万斯与国务卿马尔科·卢比奥之间的较量。
莱斯大学总统历史学家道格拉斯·布林克利表示，在特朗普剩余的任期内，无论民主党是否掌控国会，这位以不可预测性为荣的总统都将带来更多意外。
“他那种杂乱无章的领导风格，无论民主党是否拿下国会，都不会消失，”他说道。
本报记者马特·斯佩塔尔尼克、南迪塔·博斯报道；史蒂夫·霍兰、安迪·沙利文补充报道；马特·斯佩塔尔尼克撰稿；罗斯·科尔文、阿利斯泰尔·贝尔编辑
Trump setbacks fuel lame-duck talk as he turns 80
2026-06-10T10:05:11.712Z / Reuters
WASHINGTON, June 10 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to project political strength as he turns 80, but setbacks at home and abroad are exposing the limits of his power and pushing him toward the kind of lame-duck status he has told aides he is determined to avoid.
Nearly 17 months into his second term, the courts are pushing back, his effort to wind down the Iran war has stalled, and his approval ratings have weakened. Some fellow Republicans in Congress are also defying him – though his hold on core supporters remains firm.
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Still, Trump has shown he retains significant clout: he has helped oust Republican incumbents in primary races and has pressed ahead with aggressive trade policies. He has also pursued high-profile construction projects in Washington in one of the most ambitious building drives by a U.S. president in years.
This dynamic is unfolding just months ahead of November’s midterm elections as Trump’s Republican Party scrambles to maintain control of Congress. The loss of one or both chambers to opposition Democrats could hasten his slide into a lame-duck phase, historically when a president – if barred from running again – sees influence waning and domestic priorities stymied.
The White House is trying to prevent that narrative from taking hold prematurely and has been forceful about letting Republican lawmakers know Trump can still make or break them, according to a presidential adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal matters.
But with some Republicans already showing greater willingness to stand up to Trump, the adviser acknowledged it was inevitable that his authority would begin to diminish.
“He’ll naturally start to lose leverage, especially after the midterms,” the adviser said.
Trump has privately told staffers that one of the reasons he has mused about a third term, which is forbidden by the Constitution, is to ward off any public perception that he might become a lame duck and slip into “irrelevance,” according to a former senior aide who spoke on condition of anonymity.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said, “President Trump is the unequivocal leader of the Republican Party who is committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress.”
HEALTH UNDER SCRUTINY
The questions about Trump’s political standing come as scrutiny of his personal stamina is intensifying.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in February found 61 percent of Americans thought Trump had become more erratic with age, and another survey in April showed a majority concerned about his temperament and mental sharpness.
Trump, who is the oldest president sworn into office, will celebrate his 80th birthday on Sunday by hosting a UFC cage fight on the White House lawn.
After a flurry of near-weekly travel early in the year, Trump has largely stayed at the White House or his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida since he launched the Iran war on February 28. He has made only a handful of domestic trips since then.
His public daily schedule consists largely of “executive time” and policy meetings held behind closed doors. He is often more visible on his Truth Social platform, where he posts throughout the day and late into the night.
Trump declared himself in excellent condition following a routine checkup last month after he was seen at public events with swollen ankles, which his doctors have described as only a “slight” issue, and with bruising on his hands.
A senior White House official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said Trump was keen to avoid comparisons to Joe Biden, his Democratic predecessor who faced questions about his fitness for the job before leaving office at 82.
Even so, Trump has occasionally been caught on camera appearing to doze off at events, including at an NBA Finals game at Madison Square Garden on Monday. As clips of him with his eyes shut have gone viral, Trump aides have fired back on social media, claiming he was blinking or listening intently.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle described Trump as “the sharpest and most accessible president in American history.”
A WEAKENING HAND
Analysts agree that even if Trump’s political influence wanes, he can still rely on executive orders to shape policy and act more freely on the world stage, where presidents have greater leeway to take action unilaterally.
Still, there have been signs of Trump’s weakening hand.
While he is not likely to see a full-scale Republican revolt, some defeated incumbents, who remain in office until January, have already begun opposing parts of his agenda and have also signalled pushback against his cabinet nominations.
In the past two weeks, small Republican factions in the Senate and House of Representatives have joined with Democrats to rebuke him over the Iran war, reject $1 billion in funding tied to his ballroom and force a retreat on his $1.8 billion fund to pay political allies claiming they were victims of “weaponized” prosecution.
As Trump has struggled to achieve policy objectives, he has become more preoccupied with his construction projects. He is increasingly touting not only the ornate ballroom under construction but also refurbishment of the Reflecting Pool on the National Mall and a proposed triumphal arch.
One way Trump is likely to continue exercising power is in the selection of Republicans’ 2028 presidential nominee, seen as a contest between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
And for the rest of Trump’s term, the world should expect the unexpected from a president who prides himself on unpredictability, said Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian at Rice University.
“His helter-skelter style of leadership, that’s not going anywhere, whether the Democrats take Congress or not,” he said.
Reporting by Matt Spetalnick and Nandita Bose; Additional reporting by Steve Holland and Andy Sullivan; Writing by Matt Spetalnick; Editing by Ross Colvin and Alistair Bell
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