2026-06-04 12:39:38 / 路透社
华盛顿6月4日路透电 — 上周美国申领失业救济金的人数增幅超出预期，触及四个月来高点，但 underlying 趋势仍与稳定的劳动力市场相符。
经济学家对美国劳工部周四公布的周初请失业金人数上升不予理会，称其与上周一的阵亡将士纪念日假期相关的波动有关。公共假期前后申领人数往往会出现上升。他们表示，目前尚无迹象表明中东冲突对劳动力市场产生明显影响，但不确定性与日俱增。
“总体来看，初请和续请失业金人数的趋势仍然非常低迷，”潘兴广场宏观经济咨询公司的资深美国经济学家奥利弗·艾伦说道。“但如果仅仅因为申领人数较低就断定劳动力市场一切良好，那是不明智的。‘解雇少、招聘少’仍是劳动力市场状况的贴切描述，而且只有大约四分之一的失业者会申领救济金。”
截至5月30日的一周，美国州级失业救济金初请人数经季节调整后增加1.3万人，达到22.5万人，为2月初以来的最高水平。路透社调查的经济学家此前预测最新一周的初请人数为21.3万人。剔除每周波动因素的四周移动平均值仅增加6500人，达到21.475万人。
上周的升幅将申领人数推至今年19万至23万区间的上限。随着学年结束，未来几周申领人数可能仍会居高不下。
“一些州允许暑期休假的学校工作人员申领失业救济金，这可能导致初请人数总数据出现上升，而季节性调整因素未必总能覆盖这一情况，”牛津经济研究院的首席美国经济学家南希·范登·豪滕说道。
季节性因素是美国政府用于剔除数据中季节性波动的模型。
尽管科技公司因采用人工智能而进行了备受瞩目的裁员，但从历史标准来看，整体裁员率仍然偏低。全球职业介绍公司Challenger, Gray and Christmas周四发布的另一份报告显示，美国雇主5月宣布的裁员人数达97006人，其中约39%来自科技行业。这一数字较4月上升了16%。
不过，与去年同期相比，计划中的裁员人数仅上升了3%。尽管雇主尚未针对美以与伊朗的冲突（目前已进入第四个月）引发的劳动力短缺和通胀上升采取大规模裁员措施，但经济学家表示，冲突持续时间越长，情况可能发生变化。
美联储周三发布的褐皮书报告称，5月就业“几乎没有变化”，“大多数地区都将劳动力市场描述为‘低解雇、低招聘’环境”。报告补充道，“招聘仍具有选择性，主要集中在关键岗位或填补离职人员空缺”。
就目前而言，低裁员率支撑着劳动力市场。申领救济金报告显示，在初请失业金一周后仍在领取救济金的人数（即衡量招聘情况的指标）在截至5月23日的一周下降了8000人，经季节调整后为177.7万人。
劳动力市场保持稳定
初请失业金数据与将于周五发布的备受关注的5月就业报告无关，因为统计时段不在调查周期内。
路透社对经济学家的调查显示，继4月增加11.5万个非农就业岗位后，5月非农就业岗位预计将增加8.5万个。失业率预计维持在4.3%不变。
劳工部周二发布的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（JOLTS）报告显示，4月招聘人数下降，裁员人数减少，这表明当月非农就业岗位增加是由裁员率下降推动的。稳定的劳动力市场让美联储得以专注于通胀问题。金融市场预计，美国央行将把基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%区间直至2027年。
美国股市开盘走低。美元兑一篮子货币汇率下跌。美国国债收益率下滑。
劳工部下属的劳工统计局发布的第三份报告显示，第一季度美国工人劳动生产率增速放缓幅度超出最初预期，但 underlying 趋势依然强劲，企业在众多岗位采用人工智能有望推动生产率提升。
衡量每小时工人产出的非农劳动生产率上修后折年率仅增长0.3%，为2025年第一季度以来最慢增速。此前预计该季度生产率增速为0.8%。经济学家此前预计生产率增速下修至0.5%。
劳动生产率同比增速从上月公布的2.9%下调至2.8%。从2019年第四季度到2026年第一季度，劳动生产率年均增速为2.1%。上周美国国内生产总值增速从最初公布的2.0%下修至1.6%，已预示了第一季度生产率的疲软表现。第四季度劳动生产率增速维持1.6%的初值不变。
经济学家认为，人工智能与经济的深度融合将提高生产率并抑制劳动力成本。
单位劳动力成本——即每单位产出的劳动力成本——上一季度折年率增长1.8%，较上月公布的2.3%有所下修。第四季度单位劳动力成本增速从此前公布的4.6%下调至2.1%。
经济学家此前预计上一季度单位劳动力成本增速为2.5%。该指标同比增长0.5%。小时薪酬上一季度折年率增长2.1%，同比增速为3.3%。
“通常情况下，当生产率下修时，单位劳动力成本会上升，”高频经济公司首席经济学家卡尔·温伯格说道。“显然，这里存在基数效应在起作用。”
路透社记者露西娅·穆蒂卡尼报道；编辑：千叶城（Chizu Nomiyama）、安德里亚·里奇
US weekly jobless claims increase to four-month high; worker productivity revised down
2026-06-04 12:39:38 / Reuters
WASHINGTON, June 4 (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, touching their highest level in four months, but the underlying trend remained consistent with a stable labor market.
Economists shrugged off the rise in weekly jobless claims reported by the Labor Department on Thursday as volatility related to last Monday’s Memorial Day holiday. Claims tend to rise around public holidays. They said there were no signs yet the Middle East conflict was having a noticeable impact on the labor market, though uncertainty was growing.
“The big picture remains that the trend in both initial and continuing claims still is very subdued,” said Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “It would be unwise, however, to conclude that all is fine and well with the labor market simply because claims are low. Low fire, low hire remains an apt description of labor market conditions, and only around one of four of those unemployed make a claim.”
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 for the week ended May 30, the highest level since the first week of February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 213,000 claims for the latest week. The four-week moving average of claims, which irons out week-to-week volatility, increased only 6,500 to 214,750.
Last week’s rise pushed claims to the upper end of their 190,000-230,000 range for this year. Applications could remain higher in the weeks ahead as the school year ends.
“Some states allow school workers who are off for the summer to claim unemployment benefits and that can lead to a rise in headline claims that isn’t always captured by the seasonal factors,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
Seasonal factors are the model used by the government to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data.
Layoffs remain low by historical standards, despite high-profile job cuts by technology firms related to the adoption of artificial intelligence. U.S.-based employers announced 97,006 job cuts in May, about 39% of them in the technology sector, a separate report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas showed on Thursday. That was up 16% from April.
Still, planned job cuts rose only 3% compared to the same period last year. Though employers have not responded with mass layoffs to rising shortages and inflation stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, now in its fourth month, economists said that could change, the longer the conflict drags on.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report on Wednesday said employment showed “little to no change” in May, and that “most districts described a low-hire, low-fire environment.” It added that “hiring remained selective and primarily focused on critical roles or attrition replacement.”
For now, low layoffs are anchoring the labor market. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, fell 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.777 million during the week ended May 23, the claims report showed.
LABOR MARKET REMAINS STABLE
The claims data have no bearing on the closely watched employment report for May, due to be released on Friday, as they fall outside the survey period.
Nonfarm payrolls likely rose by 85,000 jobs in May after rising 115,000 in April, a Reuters survey of economists predicted. The unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at 4.3%.
The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, on Tuesday showed hiring decreased and layoffs fell in April, suggesting the increase in payrolls that month was due to lower layoffs. A stable labor market allows the Federal Reserve to focus on inflation. Financial markets expect the U.S. central bank to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range into 2027.
U.S. stocks opened lower. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell.
A third report from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics showed worker productivity growth slowed faster than initially thought in the first quarter, but the underlying trend remained strong and a boost is expected from businesses adopting artificial intelligence for many roles.
Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a downwardly revised 0.3% annualized rate last quarter. That was the slowest since the first quarter of 2025. Productivity was previously estimated to have risen at a 0.8% pace last quarter. Economists had expected productivity growth would be revised down to a 0.5% pace.
Productivity grew at a 2.8% rate from a year ago, instead of the 2.9% pace estimated last month. It has grown at a 2.1% rate from the fourth quarter of 2019 through the first quarter of 2026. The softness in the first quarter was flagged by last week’s downgrade to gross domestic product growth to a 1.6% rate from the previously reported 2.0% pace. Productivity grew at an unrevised 1.6% rate in the October-December quarter.
Economists believe the rising integration of AI will boost productivity and rein in labor costs.
Unit labor costs – the price of labor per single unit of output – increased at a 1.8% rate last quarter. That was a downward revision from the 2.3% pace reported last month. Fourth-quarter growth in unit labor costs was lowered to a 2.1% rate from the previously reported 4.6% pace.
Economists had expected unit labor costs to increase at a 2.5% rate last quarter. They grew at a 0.5% rate from a year ago. Hourly compensation increased at a 2.1% rate last quarter and grew at a 3.3% pace from a year ago.
“Normally, unit labor costs would rise when productivity is revised lower,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “Obviously, there is a basis effect at work here.”
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci
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