2026-06-02T09:00:07.862Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
- 周二全美六个州举行初选，包括加州州长和洛杉矶市长竞选。
- 前真人秀明星斯宾塞·普拉特有望在洛杉矶市长竞选中晋级，挑战现任市长凯伦·巴斯与进步派候选人妮提亚·拉曼。
- 尽管面临不利政治环境，民主党仍希望扩大参议院席位版图，在艾奥瓦州和蒙大拿州展开角逐。
本文由AI生成摘要，经CNN编辑审核。
周二将有六个州举行初选：加利福尼亚州、艾奥瓦州、蒙大拿州、新泽西州、新墨西哥州和南达科他州。
以下是我们将在周二晚间选举结果出炉时关注的焦点。
这是近年来最激烈的竞选之一。首先，包括前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在内的一众民主党大牌人物均宣布不参选。随后，该州独特的“前二晋级”初选制度一度可能导致大选中出现两名共和党候选人。接着，民调领先的民主党人埃里克·斯沃韦尔在面临其否认的性侵指控后退选，彻底重塑了竞选格局。
周二的投票结果将揭晓这一切的影响，我们甚至有可能提前知晓加州下一任州长的热门人选。
最新民调显示，三位候选人处于领跑位置：两位民主党人——前美国卫生与公众服务部部长泽维尔·贝塞拉和商人汤姆·施泰尔，以及共和党人、前福克斯新闻主持人史蒂夫·希尔顿。
斯沃韦尔退选后，贝塞拉的支持率大幅攀升，部分原因在于他被视为履历扎实的稳健人选。
无论党派归属，得票前两位的候选人将晋级11月的大选。希尔顿近日呼吁支持里弗赛德县警长查德·比安科的共和党人团结在自己周围，他辩称两共和党候选人对决的局面已不再可能出现。
这一情况值得关注，因为若非两共和党人对决，希尔顿几乎没有当选州长的可能。换言之，他目前的目标更侧重于晋级大选。
如果希尔顿成功进入大选，他面对的民主党候选人将是热门赢家。如果对决的是两名民主党人，选战将变得异常胶着。
与加州州长竞选相比，这场选举或许更让共和党抱有希望。
前真人秀明星斯宾塞·普拉特的竞选主打不满情绪，矛头直指民主党市长凯伦·巴斯对近期毁灭性山火的应对措施以及该市的无家可归者危机。他在全国共和党圈子和保守派媒体中广受关注。
眼下的问题是，他能否晋级大选，与巴斯或洛杉矶市议会成员、民主社会主义者妮提亚·拉曼一决高下。三人的支持率不相上下，加州大学伯克利分校与《洛杉矶时报》近期的民调显示，巴斯支持率为26%，拉曼为25%，普拉特为22%。
当然，晋级决赛和当选市长是两码事。
普拉特希望能在对决中对阵支持率低迷的巴斯。但洛杉矶仍属于深蓝城市，民调显示57%的潜在选民对普拉特持负面看法，这一比例与巴斯的不支持率持平。
在假设的 runoff 对决中，普拉特落后巴斯18个百分点，落后拉曼17个百分点。尽管有不少受访者尚未拿定主意，两位民主党候选人的支持率均未超过50%，这一结果出人意料。但普拉特仍将面临艰巨的挑战。
鉴于当前参议院席位地图对民主党不利，他们迫切希望扩大版图。周二的初选中有两个州具备实现这一目标的 plausible 前景。
其中规模更大的是艾奥瓦州，该州将举行公开席位竞选，共和党参议员乔尼·恩斯特即将退休。残奥会选手、州众议员乔希·图雷克与民粹主义州参议员扎克·瓦尔兹将竞争提名，胜者将对阵共和党热门人选、众议员阿什利·希金森。
值得注意的是，瓦尔兹一直在积极反对参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默。
2024年总统选举中，唐纳德·特朗普以13个百分点的优势拿下艾奥瓦州，但民主党仍抱有希望，认为特朗普的关税政策可能会在这个以农业为主、过往竞争激烈的州让共和党流失选票。
蒙大拿州则更难以预测。该州一些知名民主党人似乎更倾向于推出实力较弱的候选人，以便为独立候选人塞思·博德纳凝聚支持。博德纳曾任蒙大拿大学校长。
在民主党几乎没有胜算的内布拉斯加州等州，支持独立候选人已成为日益常见的策略，博德纳的竞选团队与民主党前参议员乔恩·泰斯特存在关联。
因此，部分人试图提升鲜为人知的民主党候选人阿拉尼·班克黑德的知名度，而另一些民主党人，如前州长布莱恩·施韦策，则支持资金更充裕的前州众议员莱利·尼尔。
共和党参议员史蒂夫·戴恩斯在最后时刻宣布退休，意图阻止强劲的民主党候选人上位，并推举前美国检察官库尔特·阿尔梅作为其继任者，这一举动激怒了民主党人。
艾奥瓦州的州长竞选可能更具看点。一方面，民主党对州审计官罗布·桑德寄予厚望，认为他未来有望成为全国性政治人物；另一方面，州长选举通常党派色彩没那么浓厚。
或许正是意识到这一点，特朗普上周五介入了这场拥挤且充满争议的共和党初选，背书众议员兰迪·芬斯特拉，打压商人扎克·拉恩等竞争对手。
这应该会让芬斯特拉成为热门人选。但需要关注的一个关键因素是，五位候选人中是否有人能获得35%的选票。如果无人达标，提名将由州党代会决定。
由于有多个州同时举行选举，很难确定哪些众议院初选最受关注。但以下几场值得留意：
- 在加州第22国会选区，竞争焦点是哪位民主党人能在竞争激烈的选区中晋级大选，对阵共和党众议员戴维·瓦拉达奥——是建制派宠儿、州议员贾斯米特·贝恩斯，还是伯尼·桑德斯与亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科特茨阵营支持的政治学教授兰迪·维莱加斯。
- 在加州第40国会选区，由于州民主党去年重新划分选区，共和党众议员杨金荣和肯·卡尔弗特将为同一国会席位展开角逐。
- 在加州第13国会选区，民主党众议员亚当·格雷将面对共和党商人文·克鲁蒂文蒂，还是前斯托克顿市长、共和党人凯文·林肯？该选区倾向民主党。
- 在倾向民主党的加州第45国会选区，共和党阵营候选人众多，谁将最终挑战民主党众议员德里克·陈？
- 在加州第11国会选区，我们将初步了解谁将接替前众议院议长南希·佩洛西，佩洛西近日已背书民主党旧金山监事康妮·陈。
- 在新泽西州第7国会选区，民主党前海军直升机飞行员丽贝卡·班尼特似乎有望击败共和党众议员汤姆·基恩——后者已数月未出席国会，且未对此作出详细解释。但她面临几位资金充裕的对手。（基恩在共和党初选中没有对手。）
南达科他州的州长选举竞争也十分激烈。
州长拉里·罗登去年因克里斯蒂·诺姆离职出任特朗普政府国土安全部长而从副总统职位晋升。
但他将与众议员达斯蒂·约翰逊、商人托比·多登和州众议院议长乔·汉森等共和党候选人展开激烈角逐。
与艾奥瓦州一样，35%的门槛同样至关重要。如果四位候选人中无人达标，得票前两位的候选人将在7月28日进行 runoff 对决。
Tuesday’s wild races for California governor and Los Angeles mayor, and other elections to watch
2026-06-02T09:00:07.862Z / CNN
- Six states hold primaries Tuesday, including races for California governor and Los Angeles mayor.
- Former reality TV star Spencer Pratt is hoping to advance in LA’s mayoral race against incumbent Karen Bass and progressive Nithya Raman.
- Democrats hope to expand their Senate map in Iowa and Montana despite challenging political terrain.
AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.
Six states will hold primaries on Tuesday: California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota.
Here’s what we’re watching for when the results start rolling in Tuesday evening.
It’s been one of the wildest races in recent memory. First, a procession of big-name Democrats like former Vice President Kamala Harris declined to run. Then, it looked like the state’s unusual top-two primary system could produce two Republicans in the general election. Then, front-running Democrat Eric Swalwell dropped out following allegations of sexual assault that he has denied, sharply recasting the race.
On Tuesday, we see what it all means. And it’s possible we could learn who’s likely to be California’s next governor.
The latest polls show three candidates atop the field: two Democrats — former US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and businessman Tom Steyer — and Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host.
Becerra surged after Swalwell’s exit, seemingly in part because he was viewed as a steady pick with a solid political resume.
The top two finishers regardless of party will advance to November. Hilton has in recent days urged Republicans who support Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco to unite around his candidacy, arguing a two-Republican race is no longer possible.
That’s notable because Hilton would seem to have little chance of becoming governor but for a two-Republican race. He seems to be more focused on just making the general election, in other words.
If Hilton does make the general election, the Democrat he faces would be a heavy favorite. If it’s two Democrats, then it’s game on.
This might be, even more so than the governor’s race, the one where Republicans have dared to dream.
Former reality TV star Spencer Pratt, whose campaign has focused on dissatisfaction over Democratic Mayor Karen Bass’ response to devastating recent wildfires and the city’s homelessness crisis, is all the rage in national Republican circles and on conservative media.
The question now is whether he can make the general election against either Bass or Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman, a democratic socialist. The three of them are running close to one another, with a recent UC Berkeley-Los Angeles Times poll finding Bass at 26%, Raman at 25% and Pratt at 22%.
Of course, making the final two and becoming mayor are two very different things.
Pratt will hope for a matchup against the unpopular Bass. But this is still heavily blue Los Angeles, and the poll showed 57% of likely voters disliked Pratt — the same as Bass’ unfavorable rating.
In a hypothetical runoff, Pratt trailed Bass by 18 points and Raman by 17. With a number of respondents undecided, both Democrats were held below 50%, which is remarkable. But Pratt would still face an uphill battle.
Given the tough Senate map they face, Democrats would badly like to expand it. And Tuesday’s primaries feature two states where that could at least plausibly be the case.
The bigger one is Iowa, which will hold an open-seat race with GOP Sen. Joni Ernst retiring. Paralympian and state Rep. Josh Turek and populist state Sen. Zach Wahls are battling for the right to face GOP favorite Rep. Ashley Hinson.
Wahls has, notably, been campaigning hard against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
President Donald Trump carried Iowa by 13 points in 2024, but Democrats hold out hope that his tariffs might cost the GOP votes in a farming-heavy state that used to be more competitive.
Montana is more of a wild card. There, some prominent Democrats would seem to prefer to have a weaker nominee in order to rally support behind independent Seth Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana.
Rallying behind independents has become an increasingly common strategy in states like Nebraska where Democrats stand little chance of winning, and Bodnar’s campaign has ties to Democratic former Sen. Jon Tester.
So some are trying to elevate little-known Democrat Alani Bankhead, while other Democrats, such as former Gov. Brian Schweitzer, are backing former state Rep. Riley Neill, a better-funded candidate.
Democrats were inflamed after GOP Sen. Steve Daines announced his retirement at the last minute in a gambit intended to foreclose a strong Democratic nominee and to anoint Republican Kurt Alme, a former US attorney, as his replacement.
The governor’s race in Iowa might be even more interesting. That’s because Democrats have high hopes for State Auditor Rob Sand and think he could one day be a national contender — and also because governor’s races tend to be less partisan.
Perhaps recognizing that, Trump on Friday inserted himself into a crowded and contentious Republican primary, endorsing Rep. Randy Feenstra over businessman Zach Lahn and others.
That should make Feenstra the favorite. But a key factor to watch for is whether any of the five candidates gets 35% of the vote. If nobody does, the nominee would be chosen at a state party convention.
With so many states voting, it can be difficult to pick which House primaries matter most. But here are a few to keep an eye on:
- In California’s 22nd District, the question is which Democrat makes the general election against GOP Rep. David Valadao in a very competitive district — establishment favorite state Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains or political science professor Randy Villegas, a favorite of the Bernie Sanders/Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wing of the party.
- In California’s 40th District, Republican Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert are battling for the same House district after state Democrats redraw maps last year.
- In California’s 13th, does Democratic Rep. Adam Gray face Republican businessman Vin Kruttiventi or GOP former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln in a Democratic-leaning district?
- In California’s Democratic-leaning 45th, who on a crowded GOP side faces Democratic Rep. Derek Tran?
- In California’s 11th District, we’ll start to learn who will succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who recently backed Democratic San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan.
- In New Jersey’s 7th District, Democratic former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett appears to be the favorite to face GOP Rep. Tom Kean, who has been missing from Congress for months with little explanation. But she faces some well-funded opponents. (Kean might have faced primary trouble, but he is running unopposed on the GOP side.)
It’s quite possible in South Dakota.
Gov. Larry Rhoden got promoted from lieutenant governor last year when Kristi Noem left to become Trump’s homeland security secretary.
But he’s got a dogfight on his hands with other GOP candidates like Rep. Dusty Johnson, businessman Toby Doeden and state House Speaker Jon Hansen.
As in Iowa, the 35% threshold looms large. If none of the four candidates gets there, the top two would go to a runoff on July 28.
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