2026-05-27T17:45:54.004Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/27/politics/breaking-down-democrats-chances-to-beat-ken-paxton-in-texas
长久以来，人们一直在问同一个问题：民主党能否终于结束他们在德克萨斯州长达数十年的全州选举失利颓势？
而每隔几年，得到的答案都一样：不行。露西又一次把足球抢走了。自1994年以来，民主党就再也没有赢下过全州范围的选举，自1988年——也就是詹姆斯·塔拉里科出生的前一年——以来，也从未拿下过参议院席位。
但在2026年，这个问题显然有了讨论的正当性。这是因为民主党在该州的联邦参议院选举中迎来了他们梦寐以求的对手：包袱缠身的共和党州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿。（在总统唐纳德·特朗普的 late 背书加持下，帕克斯顿在周二的 runoff 中击败了参议员约翰·康林。）
“我要告诉德克萨斯州乃至全美的共和党人：不要理所当然地认为这次大选胜券在握，”共和党参议员特德·克鲁兹在他最新一期播客中说道，“人们很容易说‘这里是德克萨斯，是红色州，我们肯定会赢’——我也相信我们会赢——但我同时也认为民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科是个危险的候选人。”
的确，数据显示民主党此次的胜算与过去三十年来相比——甚至比以往任何时候都要大。但历史和经验都表明，我们仍需保持谨慎。
首先来看基本情况。
帕克斯顿作为共和党候选人的不利之处不言自明，而塔拉里科作为民主党候选人的优势则在理论上成立，但尚未经过实战检验。
CNN的帕特里克·斯维泰克梳理了帕克斯顿的一些“黑历史”：
- 十年前，他因证券欺诈重罪遭到起诉。最终在2024年，他达成了一项包含社区服务和赔偿的预审协议。
- 他还面临美国证券交易委员会提起的类似指控的民事诉讼，但该案件在2016年被驳回。
- 2020年，他的助手们因被指控腐败向联邦调查局举报。尽管最终没有提起诉讼，但帕克斯顿解雇助手的行为被裁定不当，相关判决涉及660万美元的赔偿金。
- 2023年，由共和党控制的州众议院弹劾了他，但他后来在州参议院获得无罪释放。
- 他存在各类抵押贷款问题，而特朗普政府曾多次声称这类问题可能构成严重犯罪——至少当这些问题涉及特朗普的对手时是如此。
- 他还面临不忠指控，包括去年他的妻子、州参议员安吉拉·帕克斯顿以“宗教教义理由”提出离婚时所曝出的相关内容。
至于塔拉里科，他的表现还有待观察。
民主党人很高兴他能坦率自在地谈论自己的基督教信仰，希望他能争取到倾向保守派的宗教选民。
但他也存在类似卡玛拉·哈里斯的问题。这是因为，和哈里斯一样，他近年来在左派更流行“觉醒”言论的时候，也说过一些相当“觉醒”的话——比如声称存在六种生理性别，以及“上帝是非二元性别的”。他曾称美国国旗是一个“复杂的象征”。尽管共和党人 falsely 指控塔拉里科是纯素食主义者，但他确实在2022年谈到过减少肉类摄入，并表示自己在州众议院竞选期间发起了一项“无肉”运动。
这类言论在此次竞选里绝不能被低估。它们可能会成为吸引文化保守派选民的真正障碍——向他们传递出这样一个信号：尽管塔拉里科满口信仰上帝，但他绝非他们中的一员。
但至少就目前而言，民主党人有一些真正值得乐观的理由。
这是因为全国的政治环境对民主党越来越有利，数据也支撑了帕克斯顿可能拖累共和党竞选的观点。
全国范围内的“通用国会选票”持续向民主党倾斜，以至于近期的一些民调显示民主党领先优势达到两位数。随着特朗普的支持率跌至历史新低，当前的选举环境可能比2018年还要有利于民主党——当年民主党人贝托·奥罗克仅以2.6个百分点的差距输给了共和党参议员特德·克鲁兹。
对德克萨斯州而言至关重要的是，特朗普在拉丁裔选民中失去了大量支持，近年来该群体转向共和党的趋势出现逆转，有望重新回归民主党坚实票仓。
目前针对这场特定竞选的民调结果也对民主党十分有利。
德克萨斯大学/德克萨斯政治项目4月的民调显示，在登记选民中，塔拉里科以42%比34%领先帕克斯顿8个百分点。即便当时共和党州长格雷格·雅培在其竞选活动中领先6个百分点——帕克斯顿和雅培的支持率差距达到了惊人的14个百分点。
近期德克萨斯南方大学/YouGov的民调显示，登记选民中的参议院竞选结果为45%比45%的平局。但同样，帕克斯顿的表现仍落后于雅培等其他全州范围候选人（雅培再次领先6个百分点）。
这类民调结果在德克萨斯州几乎从未出现过。事实上，即便是奥罗克——几十年来民主党最成功的参议院候选人——在2018年的全程民调中也始终落后于克鲁兹。
帕克斯顿也已被证明在实际选举中表现不如其他共和党人，至少是略有不及。2022年，他创下了该周期内德克萨斯州共和党候选人全州选举的最小胜选差距，仅以9个百分点获胜，而其他共和党候选人的胜选差距都在11至15个百分点之间。
对最新民调的深入分析还表明，在经历了残酷的共和党初选后，帕克斯顿还有不少工作要做，以修复党内形象。
例如，2018年的 exit polls 显示，奥罗克在独立选民中与克鲁兹势均力敌（50%比47%），而上述两项民调均显示，塔拉里科目前在独立登记选民中的领先优势超过20个百分点。
两项民调还显示，塔拉里科的公众形象明显优于帕克斯顿。塔拉里科的净支持率为正10至11个百分点，而帕克斯顿的净支持率为负6至9个百分点。
德克萨斯大学的民调显示，仅有十分之一的独立选民认可帕克斯顿，而有一半的独立选民对他持反感态度。该民调还显示，帕克斯顿仅获得了63%的共和党选民支持，11%的选民支持塔拉里科，另有20%的选民尚未决定。
帕克斯顿在德克萨斯南方大学的民调中表现更好，获得了85%的共和党选民支持，但这仍低于塔拉里科获得的96%的民主党选民支持率。
但换个角度来看，帕克斯顿目前仍有很大的上升空间。
你会注意到，在这些民调中，帕克斯顿的表现其实并未比康林差太多。尽管康林被认为是更受广泛认可的候选人，但帕克斯顿的平均支持率仅比康林低1至2个百分点。
如果你是共和党人，你可能会认为当前的民调只是反映了残酷的共和党初选带来的暂时影响。毕竟，这是历史上耗资最巨的初选之一，且 runoff 持续了两个多月。
我们往往会高估残酷的初选对大选的影响。民调显示，此次竞选尚未决定的选民整体倾向于右翼，因此他们最终可能会转而支持帕克斯顿和共和党。
历史也表明，与州长选举相比，选民在参议院选举中会表现出更强的党派倾向，因为参议员的投票直接关系到某一党派能否掌控参议院。因此，即便有相当一部分倾向保守派的德克萨斯选民不喜欢帕克斯顿，他们也可能会为了阻止民主党掌控参议院而投票给他。
需要明确的是，这场竞选对参议院的多数席位格局可能产生重大影响。民主党需要至少拿下两个2024年特朗普以两位数优势获胜的州，才能翻转参议院的控制权。
考虑到阿拉斯加和俄亥俄州的候选人已得到验证，这两个州可能是更好的机会。
但至少现在，德克萨斯州已经明确进入了民主党人的竞选视野。
Breaking down Democrats’ chances to beat Ken Paxton in Texas
2026-05-27T17:45:54.004Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/27/politics/breaking-down-democrats-chances-to-beat-ken-paxton-in-texas
It’s a question that has been asked for a very long time now: Can Democrats finally end their decadeslong statewide losing streak in Texas?
And every few years, the answer comes back the same: No. Lucy has yanked the football away, yet again. Texas Democrats still haven’t won a statewide race since 1994 or a Senate race since 1988, the year before James Talarico was born.
But it’s a question that’s clearly legitimate in 2026. That’s because Democrats got their coveted opponent in the state’s US Senate race: the baggage-ridden Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. (Paxton drubbed Sen. John Cornyn in a runoff Tuesday after a late endorsement from President Donald Trump.)
“I got a message to Republicans in Texas and nationwide: Do not take this general election for granted,” GOP Sen. Ted Cruz said on a new episode of his podcast. “It is easy to say it’s Texas, it’s red, we’re going to win — and I believe we are going to win — but I also think the Democrat nominee James Talarico is a dangerous candidate.”
Indeed, the data suggest Democrats’ chances are as good as — or better than — ever in the last three decades. History and logic suggest it’s still worth being circumspect.
First, the basics.
The case for Paxton being a problematic candidate for Republicans is self-evident, while the case for Talarico being a strong candidate for Democrats makes theoretical sense but is untested.
CNN’s Patrick Svitek recaps some of Paxton’s not-so-greatest hits:
- He was indicted on felony securities fraud charges a decade ago. Eventually in 2024 he reached a pretrial agreement involving community service and restitution.
- He also faced a civil case on similar allegations brought by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, though that case was thrown out in 2016.
- His own aides reported him to the FBI in 2020 for alleged corruption. No case was brought, but Paxton’s firing of the aides was ruled improper in a $6.6 million judgment.
- The GOP-controlled state House impeached him in 2023, though he was later acquitted by the state Senate.
- He has the kinds of mortgage problems that the Trump administration has repeatedly claimed could be serious crimes — at least when they involved Trump’s foes.
- He has faced allegations of infidelity, including when his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce last year, citing “biblical grounds.”
As for Talarico, it remains to be seen how he’ll play.
Democrats love that he speaks openly and comfortably about his Christian faith and hope he can make a play for conservative-leaning religious voters.
But he also has something of a Kamala Harris problem. That’s because, like Harris, he said some rather “woke” things in recent years when that was more en vogue on the left — things like that there are six biological sexes and that “God is nonbinary.” He has called the American flag a “complicated symbol.” And while Republicans have falsely accused Talarico of being a vegan, he did in 2022 talk about reducing meat consumption and said he was running a “non-meat” campaign for the state House.
Those kinds of comments shouldn’t be undersold in this race. They could be real hurdles with culturally conservative voters — signals to them that maybe Talarico, despite all his talk about his faith in God, is far from one of them.
But at least for now, there are some real reasons for Democrats to be optimistic.
That’s because the environment is increasingly good for their party, and the data back up the idea that Paxton could be a drag on Republicans.
The national “generic ballot” keeps trending toward Democrats, to the point that some recent polls show them with a double-digit lead. And with Trump’s approval rating falling lower than ever before, it’s increasingly conceivable the environment could be better for Democrats than in 2018, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke lost to GOP Sen. Ted Cruz by just 2.6 points.
And crucially for Texas, Trump has lost huge ground with Latino voters, who look like they’ll revert to a strong Democratic constituency after trending Republican in recent years.
The polls of this specific race are also quite good for Democrats right now.
An April University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll actually showed Talarico leading Paxton by eight points among registered voters, 42%-34%. That’s even as GOP Gov. Greg Abbott led his race by 6 — a whopping 14-point gap between Paxton’s and Abbott’s performances.
A more recent Texas Southern University/YouGov poll showed a tied Senate race among registered voters, 45%-45%. But again, Paxton underperformed other statewide candidates like Abbott (who again led by 6).
These are the kinds of polls you basically never see in Texas. In fact, even O’Rourke — Democrats’ most successful Senate candidate in decades — polled consistently behind Cruz through all of 2018.
Paxton has also proved he underperforms other Republicans in actual elections, at least somewhat. In 2022, he notched the smallest margin of any statewide Texas Republican that cycle, winning by 9 points even as others won by between 11 and 15 points.
A deeper dive into the new polls also suggests Paxton has work to do in patching things up after a brutal GOP nominating contest.
For instance, while exit polls showed O’Rourke ran about even with Cruz among independent voters (50%-47%) in 2018, Talarico currently leads among them by more than 20 points with independent registered voters in both polls mentioned above.
Both polls also show Talarico’s image is significantly better than Paxton’s. While Talarico’s net favorable rating is 10-11 points positive, Paxton’s is between 6 and 9 points negative.
The University of Texas poll actually showed only 1 in 10 independents liked Paxton, while half disliked him. It also showed Paxton winning just 63% of Republicans, with 11% going for Talarico and 20% undecided.
Paxton did better with Republicans in the Texas Southern poll, taking 85% of them. But that was still less than Talarico’s 96% of Democrats.
But the other way to look at all that is that Paxton has plenty of upside right now.
One thing you’ll notice from these same polls is that Paxton wasn’t doing much worse than Cornyn was. He did maybe 1 or 2 points worse on average, even though Cornyn was supposedly the much more broadly acceptable candidate.
If you’re a Republican, you look at that and think maybe the current polls are just a temporary reflection of the brutal GOP nominating contest. It was one of the most expensive in history, after all, and the runoff lasted more than two months.
We do tend to overestimate how much brutal primaries actually matter by the time the general election rolls around. And the polls suggest many of the undecided voters in this race lean to the right — and thus they could ultimately come home to Paxton and the GOP.
History also suggests voters tend to behave in a more partisan fashion in Senate races than governor’s races because a senator is a vote for one side or the other. So even if a significant chunk of conservative-leaning Texans don’t like Paxton, they might vote for him to foreclose a Democratic-majority Senate.
And to be clear, this race could matter significantly in that majority math. Democrats need to win at least two states that Trump carried by double digits in 2024 in order to flip the Senate.
Alaska and Ohio might be the better opportunities, given the proven candidates they have running in those races.
But Texas is now pretty clearly on the map, at least.
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