2026-05-27T04:01:07.699Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/27/politics/american-sentiment-iran-war-peace-deal
多项民调显示，越来越多美国人不相信唐纳德·特朗普总统能以美国的完胜告终伊朗战争。
大多数受访选民希望结束在伊朗的军事行动，即便无法达成和平协议。
仅有20%的美国人对特朗普在伊朗问题上做出正确决策抱有“极大信心”。
本文由AI生成摘要，并经CNN编辑审核。
唐纳德·特朗普总统对伊朗发动的战争迄今难言成功。绝大多数美国民众认为，无论冲突何时结束，局势都不会好转。
近期民调描绘出一幅美国公众“已受够了”的图景。民众从一开始就反对这场战争，不认为它会带来多少积极成果，也不期待能获得重大让步——至少是值得的让步。
简言之，几乎没人相信特朗普能找到体面结束这场战争的好办法。
阵亡将士纪念日周末为这一观点提供了一些佐证。当时出现了迄今最显著的迹象，显示结束战争的协议谈判取得了实质性进展。但随着细节泄露，人们发现这些条款对许多立场更强硬的共和党人来说完全不可接受。其中一些共和党人甚至警告称，该协议可能会让伊朗比战争爆发前更加强大。
如果伊朗坚持强硬立场，那么特朗普能否在不使该问题对共和党造成更大负面影响之前，既保全颜面又结束战争，尚不明朗。
多项民调表明，民众只是希望战争能够结束。
上周福克斯新闻的一项民调显示，仅有39%的登记选民希望美国军事行动“持续到实现美国目标为止”，而61%的人更倾向于“设定有限时间框架”。
同样，《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院联合开展的民调显示，52%的登记选民认为，即便无法与伊朗就其核项目达成协议，美国也应结束军事行动。
仅有37%的人希望在美国与伊朗无法就其核项目达成协议的情况下恢复军事行动。
上述民调及其他数据都印证了美国人对达成可接受的协议并不乐观。相反，他们似乎很可能会对任何最终达成的协议持怀疑态度。
《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院的民调显示，仅有22%的人认为这场战争在“彻底摧毁伊朗核项目”方面会“非常成功”——而特朗普政府去年夏天就已经宣称该核项目已被“彻底摧毁”。
（另有18%的人认为战争会“有些成效”，50%的人则预计战争不会成功。）
据《华盛顿邮报》与美国广播公司联合开展的民调，同样有65%的美国人“不太有信心”或“完全没有信心”认为，结束战争的协议能够阻止伊朗发展核武器——这一直是特朗普反复强调的红线。
皮尤研究中心近期的一项民调显示，近三分之二的美国人对本届政府在伊朗问题上达成目标仅抱有“些许”信心，甚至更低。
即便达成对美国而言条件相当有利的协议，也不意味着美国人会认为这些条件值得付出战争代价。
《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院的民调显示，登记选民以55%比21%的比例认为这场战争不值得付出如此代价。
多项民调也 consistently 表明，美国人认为这场战争在多个方面会适得其反。《华盛顿邮报》与美国广播公司的民调显示，美国人认为：
- 61%比11%：战争加剧了针对美国人的恐怖主义风险
- 56%比12%：战争有削弱美国盟友关系的风险
- 49%比21%：中东地区的稳定会恶化
即便特朗普能逆势而为，为美国争取到一份有利的协议，他还面临另一个关键问题：美国人不再信任他在这一问题上的判断。
例如，最新的CNN民调显示，仅有20%的美国人对特朗普在伊朗问题上做出正确决策抱有“极大信心”。约三倍于此的人——59%——“不太有信心”或“完全没有信心”。
特朗普已经放弃了许多此前的绝对要求。例如，他曾表示只会接受“无条件投降”。在其他场合，他称自己的主要目标是彻底终止伊朗的核项目，并确保伊朗无法为哈马斯和真主党等代理组织提供资金。
从最新的谈判条款来看，这些目标似乎正在被淡化。
特朗普在开战之初似乎犯了两个致命错误：他没有明确、可行的计划来结束战争，也没有充分向美国民众解释这场战争的必要性。相反，他将成功的标准定得过高，以至于很难达成——除非重启大规模敌对行动并延长战争，至少在他发动袭击后告诉选民这场战争值得付出代价之后是如此。
显然，美国人并不认同这一点。虽然现在撤军在政治上可能比让局势持续恶化更好，但这或许也只是最不坏的选择。
Trump might not have a good way out of the Iran war
2026-05-27T04:01:07.699Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/27/politics/american-sentiment-iran-war-peace-deal
Multiple polls show Americans increasingly don’t believe President Donald Trump can end the Iran war with a clear-cut victory for the US.
A majority of polled voters want to end military operations in Iran even without a peace deal.
Only 20% of Americans have a “great deal” of faith in Trump to make good decisions about Iran.
AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.
President Donald Trump’s war with Iran hasn’t exactly been a rousing success so far. And much of the American public expects that the conflict’s end — whenever that will be — won’t change that.
Polling in recent weeks paints a picture of an American public that is over it. People didn’t like the war to begin with, they don’t think it will result in much positive, and they don’t seem to expect significant concessions — or, at least, concessions that were at all worthwhile.
In short, there’s not a lot of faith that Trump has a good way out of this war.
The Memorial Day weekend offers some insight on that perspective. There were some of the most significant signs to date of actual progress on a deal to end the war. But as the details leaked out, it became clear they were complete non-starters for many, more-hawkish Republicans. Some of those Republicans even cautioned the deal could leave Iran stronger than before the war.
And if Iran sticks to its hard line, it’s not clear what deal might allow Trump to both save face and end the war before it becomes even more of a problem for the GOP.
Multiple polls suggest people just want it to be over.
A Fox News poll last week showed just 39% of registered voters wanted US military operations to last “as long as it takes to achieve US objectives,” compared to 61% who instead preferred a “limited timeframe.”
Similarly, a New York Times-Siena College poll showed 52% of registered voters said the United States should end military operations even if it can’t reach a deal with Iran on its nuclear program.
Just 37% wanted to resume military operations if the countries can’t come to an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.
And that latter poll and other data reinforce that Americans aren’t exactly optimistic about an acceptable deal. Instead, it seems they are liable to look at anything that is produced skeptically.
The Times-Siena poll said just 22% thought the war would be “very successful” at eliminating Iran’s nuclear program — a program which, it bears re-emphasizing, the Trump administration has already claimed was “obliterated” last summer.
(Another 18% thought it would be “somewhat successful,” while 50% expected it to be unsuccessful.)
Likewise, 65% of Americans were “not so confident” or “not at all confident” that a deal to end the war would stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons (which has been Trump’s repeated red line), per a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
And nearly two-thirds were only “somewhat” confident, or less, that the administration would accomplish its goals in Iran, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll.
Even if a deal is cut that includes reasonably favorable terms for the United States, that doesn’t mean Americans will view them as being worth it.
Registered voters said 55%-21% that the war will not be worth the costs, according to the Times-Siena poll.
Polls have also routinely illustrated that Americans think the war will be counterproductive on several fronts. The Post-ABC poll showed Americans said:
- 61%-11% that the war has increased the risk of terrorism against Americans
- 56%-12% that it has risked weakening US relationships
- 49%-21% that stability in the Middle East will get worse
Even if Trump does defy the odds and manages to get a favorable deal for the US, he has another critical problem: Americans no longer trust him on this issue.
The most recent CNN poll, for example, shows just 20% of Americans have a “great deal” of faith in Trump to make good decisions about Iran. About three times as many — 59% — have “not much” or no faith at all.
Trump has already walked away from many of his more absolutist demands. He used to say he would only accept “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” for example. At other points, he’s said that his main goals were to end Iran’s nuclear program altogether and make it so Iran can’t fund proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Based on the latest negotiating terms, those goals seem to be getting watered down.
Trump seems to have made two critical errors at the outset: He didn’t have a clear, achievable plan for how to bring the war to the end, and he didn’t sufficiently sell the war to the American people. Instead, he set the bar for success so high that he’ll struggle to clear it — shy of restarting large-scale hostilities and prolonging the war, at least — and told voters after he launched attacks that it would be worth the pain.
Clearly, Americans don’t agree. And while getting out now is possibly better politically than letting things drag on, it might just be the least terrible option.
发表回复