2026-05-22T14:14:57.265Z / reuters.com
- 摘要
- 沃勒因通胀扩散呼吁移除“宽松倾向”
- 沃勒称讨论进一步降息“很荒唐”
- 即将就任的美联储主席沃什在6月会议上面临转向鹰派政策的压力
- 期货合约市场预期提前加息
法兰克福5月22日路透电 – 美联储理事、曾在近期主张降息的政策制定核心人物克里斯托弗·沃勒周五表示，美联储应从政策声明中移除“宽松倾向”，实际上为可能的加息敞开大门。
沃勒称，他目前并不主张立即加息，但他认为，美联储至少应维持当前政策利率不变，直到通胀明确显示出回升至美联储2%目标的迹象。他担忧当前通胀正扩散且持续性增强。
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在德国的一场经济论坛上，他对仍在考虑降低借贷成本的人士提出了严厉批评。
“在通胀持续高于目标、就业市场比今年早些时候更为稳定的当下，说你可以在不久的将来开始讨论降息，这简直太荒唐了，”沃勒说，“你不能只看这些数据就说我们可以在9月左右降息……作为央行官员，这么说话可不太认真。”
沃勒也曾是接替即将卸任的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的候选人之一，他的这些言论加剧了即将就任的美联储主席凯文·沃什所面临的两难境地。沃什在沃勒的言论发布到美联储网站一小时后就将宣誓就职。任命沃什的总统唐纳德·特朗普一直主张大幅降息，并时常指责现任主席鲍威尔未能满足他的要求。
美联储青睐的通胀指标4月份达到3.8%，且在商品和服务领域均出现扩散，沃勒表示，他将“支持移除政策声明中的‘宽松倾向’表述，以明确未来降息的可能性并不高于加息”。
言论扭转市场押注方向
他的言论迅速扭转了市场对美联储加息的押注方向。周五，基于央行政策利率的合约定价显示，美联储在10月会议上加息25个基点的概率约为三分之二，而在9月的前一次会议上加息的概率几乎持平。
在沃勒发表讲话之前，交易员们预计首次加息将在12月。
“下一次行动，无论是加息还是降息，都将取决于数据。移除关于额外调整的范围和时机的表述，将明确这一点，”沃勒说。由于高通胀以及就业市场出现的新稳定性——这一点曾支撑他近期进一步降息的展望，他准备推进这一调整。
“我不认为劳动力市场疲软的前景是未来几个月指导货币政策的主导因素，”沃勒说。
直到最近，许多分析师都认为沃什将主导降息进程，但如今他可能会在6月16日至17日的会议上获得同事们的大力支持，推动其就任主席后的首份政策声明朝着鹰派方向调整。三名美联储官员在4月的会议上投下反对票，支持当时就进行这一调整。
美联储在上一次会议上维持利率不变，预计在6月16日至17日的会议上也将维持现状，这将是新任美联储主席主持的首次会议。
4月会议纪要显示，越来越多的官员表示，可能需要加息以遏制通胀，目前通胀似乎已不再局限于高油价或特朗普实施的进口税影响的狭窄范围。
沃勒表示，在决定利率下一步行动时，他将特别关注2至4年期限的通胀预期，任何此类预期上升都将“令人担忧”。
他表示，更多的通胀风险将使美联储“再次落后于曲线”，类似于2021年至2022年期间，当时通胀飙升至40年来的最高水平。
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本文报道美国联邦储备委员会、货币政策和经济，作者毕业于马里兰大学和约翰·霍普金斯大学，曾担任驻外记者、经济记者以及《华盛顿邮报》地方编辑部成员。
Fed’s Waller’s ready to axe ‘easing bias,’ says rate-cut talk now is ‘crazy’
2026-05-22T14:14:57.265Z / reuters.com
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks during The Clearing House Annual Conference in New York City, U.S. November 12, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Summary
- Waller urges removing “easing bias” due to broadening inflation
- Waller suggests its “crazy” to talk about further rate cuts
- Incoming Fed Chair Warsh faces pressure for hawkish policy shift at June meeting
- Futures contracts shift in favor of earlier rate increase
FRANKFURT, May 22 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, an influential voice in policymaking who until recently had advocated for lower interest rates, on Friday said the Fed should axe the “easing bias” from its policy statement and effectively open the door to a possible rate hike.
Waller said he wasn’t advocating for a hike at this point, but felt that at the very least the Fed needs to keep the current policy rate in place until it is clear inflation, which he worries is broadening and becoming more persistent, shows signs of returning to the Fed’s 2% target.
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At an economic forum in Germany he had sharp words for anyone still contemplating lower borrowing costs.
“It’s just kind of crazy to say you could start talking about rate cuts in the near future” with inflation stuck above target and the job market seeming more stable than it did earlier in the year, Waller said. “You just can’t look at this data and say yeah we could cut rates by September or something…you can’t be serious as a central banker and talk like that.”
His comments amplify the dilemma faced by incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who was due to be sworn in just an hour after the comments by Waller, who was also a candidate to succeed outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, were posted on the Fed’s website. President Donald Trump, who appointed Warsh, has argued in favor of drastically lower interest rates, frequently chastising outgoing chair Powell for not acceding to his demands.
With the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation hitting 3.8% in April and broadening across goods and services, Waller said he would “support removing the ‘easing bias’ language in our policy statement to make it clear that a rate cut is no more likely in the future than a rate increase.”
COMMENTS SHIFT MARKET BETS
His comments quickly shifted bets in the direction of a Fed rate hike. Pricing in contracts based around the central bank’s policy rate on Friday reflected about a two-in-three chance of a quarter-point interest-rate increase by the Fed’s October meeting, and nearly even odds on a hike at the prior September meeting.
Before Waller’s remarks, traders were betting on an initial rate hike by December.
“The next move, whether it is a hike or cut, will depend on the data. Removing the language about the extent and timing of additional adjustments would make this point clear,” Waller said, a move he is prepared to make both because of high inflation and of emerging stability in a labor market that had driven his recent outlook for further rate cuts.
“I don’t see the prospect of a weakening labor market as the dominant force that should be guiding monetary policy in the months ahead,” Waller said.
Far from overseeing rate cuts, as many analysts felt Warsh would be doing until recently, he may now face strong support from among his colleagues at the June 16-17 meeting to push his first policy statement as chair in a hawkish direction. Three Fed officials dissented at the April meeting in favor of making the change then.
The Fed held interest rates steady at its last meeting and is expected to do so again when policymakers gather on June 16-17 for the first time under the new Fed chair.
Minutes of the April meeting showed a growing number of officials saying that rate hikes may be needed to counter inflation that seemed to be spreading beyond the narrow channels of high oil prices or the influence of import taxes imposed by Trump.
Waller said that on deciding the next steps for interest rates he will watch in particular inflation expectations in the two- to four-year horizon, and that any increase there would be “alarming.”
He said more inflation risks the Fed “getting behind the curve again,” similar to the 2021-2022 period, when inflation surged to a 40-year high.
Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and David Gaffen
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Covers the U.S. Federal Reserve, monetary policy and the economy, a graduate of the University of Maryland and Johns Hopkins University with previous experience as a foreign correspondent, economics reporter and on the local staff of the Washington Post.
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