美国每周申领失业救济人数下降;4月独栋房屋开工率大幅下滑


2026-05-21T12:41:08.665Z / https://www.reuters.com/business/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-amid-labor-market-resilience-2026-05-21/

华盛顿,5月21日路透电 — 上周美国申领失业救济金的人数有所下降,这表明劳动力市场韧性十足,也为美联储提供了空间,使其能够专注于应对因伊朗局势引发的通胀飙升。

目前尚无迹象表明雇主正通过裁员来应对成本上涨。持续近三个月的美伊与伊朗冲突扰乱了霍尔木兹海峡的航运,推高了能源价格,同时也加剧了全球供应链紧张,并导致包括化肥、铝和消费品在内的多种商品出现短缺。

牛津经济研究院资深美国经济学家马修·马丁表示:“我们仍不能排除这场冲突和油价飙升对劳动力市场产生的外溢效应,我们一直预计这种影响会滞后显现。但就目前而言,我们认为劳动力市场表现出足够的稳定性,足以让美联储放心维持现行政策不变。”

美国劳工部周四表示,在截至5月16日的一周内,经季节调整后的首次申领州失业救济金人数减少3000人,至20.9万人。路透社调查的经济学家此前预计最新一周的申领人数为21万人。尽管科技行业因人工智能普及而出现备受关注的裁员潮,但申领人数仍维持在低位。

金融市场预计,美国央行将把基准隔夜利率维持在3.50%-3.75%区间直至明年。周三公布的美联储4月28日至29日会议纪要显示,上月因这场冲突引发的通胀担忧加剧,越来越多的政策制定者表示,美联储应为可能的加息做好准备。

纪要显示,政策制定者“普遍预计劳动力市场状况在短期内将保持稳定”,不过大多数人认为,美联储“双重使命中就业方面的风险倾向于下行”。

上周的申领数据涵盖了政府调查企业以编制5月就业报告中非农薪资部分的时段。申领人数在4月和5月的调查周之间有所下降。4月非农薪资新增11.5万个工作岗位,3月新增18.5万个。

申领报告显示,在截至5月9日的一周内,持续申领失业救济金的人数(即衡量招聘情况的指标)增加6000人,经季节调整后达到178.2万人。

华尔街美国股市开盘走低,此前路透社报道伊朗最高领袖发布指令,要求该国近武器级铀不得出口,油价随之反弹。美元兑一篮子货币走强。美国国债收益率上升。

脆弱的房地产市场

尽管劳动力市场表现坚挺,但这场冲突正对本已脆弱的房地产市场造成更多打击。美国商务部人口普查局的一份报告显示,占住宅建筑大部分的独栋房屋开工率在4月大幅下滑9.0%,经季节调整后年率为93万套。所有四个地区的独栋房屋建筑活动均出现下降。4月同比下降2.4%。

中东冲突带来的通胀影响推高了美国国债收益率。抵押贷款利率与10年期美国国债收益率挂钩,目前该收益率徘徊在1年半以来的高位附近。房地美和房利美扩大抵押贷款支持证券购买规模时,30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率在2月底(冲突爆发时)为5.98%。

房地美抵押贷款金融机构的数据显示,此后该利率大幅攀升,上周平均达到6.36%。住宅建筑此前已面临进口商品关税的压力,包括木材和装饰性橱柜关税,同时土地、劳动力和建筑成本也有所上升。包括住宅建设在内的住宅投资已连续五个季度出现收缩。

上月独栋房屋未来建设许可数量下降2.6%,至年率87.2万套。4月同比下降5.5%。改善前景渺茫。本周美国全国住宅建筑商协会的一项调查显示,5月住宅建筑商信心依然低迷。

FWDBONDS首席经济学家克里斯托弗·鲁普基表示:“想要购买自有独栋新房的美国人将继续感到失望。通胀和融资成本大幅推高了建筑成本,如果还能找到新房的话,这将使新房更加难以负担。”

路透社露西娅·穆蒂卡尼报道;千住智子编辑

US weekly jobless claims fall; single-family housing starts tumble in April

2026-05-21T12:41:08.665Z / https://www.reuters.com/business/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-amid-labor-market-resilience-2026-05-21/

WASHINGTON, May 21 (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to labor market ​resilience and giving the Federal Reserve room to focus on surging inflation from the war with Iran.

There are no signs yet that employers are responding ‌to rising costs by reducing headcount. The nearly three-month long U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, boosting energy prices, as well as straining global supply chains and causing shortages of a wide range of goods, including fertilizers, aluminum and consumer products.

“We still can’t rule out some spillover effects from the war and the spike in oil prices on to the labor market, which ​we have always expected would come with a lag,” said Matthew Martin, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “But for now, we think the labor market ​is showing enough stability to allow the Fed to feel comfortable keeping policy steady.”

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 3,000 to ⁠a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended May 16, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 210,000 claims for the latest week. Claims ​have remained low despite high-profile layoffs in the technology sector, linked to the adoption of artificial intelligence.

Financial markets expect the U.S. central bank to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate ​in the 3.50%-3.75% range into next year. Minutes of the Fed’s April 28-29 meeting published on Wednesday showed concerns about inflation because of the conflict intensified last month, with a growing number of policymakers saying the Fed should lay the groundwork for a possible rate hike.

Policymakers “generally expected labor market conditions to remain stable in the near term,” the minutes showed, though most judged “that risks to the employment side” of ​the Fed’s “dual mandate were tilted to the downside.”

Last week’s claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls component of May’s employment report. ​Claims decreased between the April and May survey weeks. Payrolls increased by 115,000 jobs in April after rising 185,000 in March.

The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, ‌a proxy ⁠for hiring, increased 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.782 million during the week ended May 9, the claims report showed.

U.S. stocks on Wall Street opened lower as oil prices rebounded after Reuters reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader had issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad. The dollar advanced versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields were higher.

FRAGILE HOUSING MARKET

While the labor market is holding up, the war is inflicting more pain on an already fragile housing market. A report from the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau showed ​single-family housing starts, which account for the ​bulk of homebuilding, tumbled 9.0% to ⁠a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 930,000 units in April. Single-family homebuilding fell in all four regions. It declined 2.4% year-on-year in April.

The inflation fallout from the Middle East conflict is driving up U.S. Treasury yields. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury note, whose yield ​is hovering near a 1-1/2-year high. The popular 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 5.98% at the end of February, when the ​war started, as Freddie ⁠Mac and Fannie Mae expanded purchases of mortgage-backed securities.

It has since surged, averaging 6.36% last week, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. Homebuilding was already under pressure from tariffs on imported goods, including lumber and vanity cabinets, as well as higher land, labor and construction costs. Residential investment, which includes home building, has contracted for five straight quarters.

Permits for future construction ⁠of single-family homes ​dropped 2.6% last month to a rate of 872,000 units. They decreased 5.5% year-on-year in April. An ​improvement is unlikely. A National Association of Home Builders survey this week showed homebuilder sentiment remaining depressed in May.

“Americans looking to buy a new single-family home of their own will remain disappointed,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at ​FWDBONDS. “Inflation and financing is pushing building costs sharply higher and that will make new homes even more unaffordable if you could find one.”

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama

评论

发表回复

您的邮箱地址不会被公开。 必填项已用 * 标注