2026-05-21T07:09:36.243Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/21/politics/iran-military-rebuild
据两名熟悉美国情报评估的消息人士透露，在4月初开始的为期六周的停火期间，伊朗已经重启了部分无人机生产，这是其快速重建因美以空袭受损的部分军事能力的迹象之一。四名消息人士告诉美国有线电视新闻网（CNN），美国情报显示伊朗军方的重建速度远超最初估计。
这四名熟悉情报情况的消息人士称，伊朗正在重建军事能力，包括替换在本轮冲突中被毁的导弹阵地、发射装置和关键武器系统的生产能力，这意味着如果唐纳德·特朗普总统重启轰炸行动，伊朗仍将对地区盟友构成重大威胁。这也让人质疑美以空袭在长期内削弱伊朗军事力量的程度的相关说法。
一名美国官员消息人士告诉CNN，虽然重启不同武器部件生产所需的时间各不相同，但美国的一些情报评估显示，伊朗最快可在六个月内全面恢复其无人机攻击能力。
“伊朗已经超出了情报界设定的所有重建时间表，”这名美国官员说道。
无人机攻击是地区盟友尤为担忧的问题。如果敌对行动重新爆发，伊朗可以用更多无人机发射行动来增强其本已大幅受损的导弹生产能力，继续向以色列和海湾国家发动打击——这些国家均处于两种武器系统的射程范围内。
特朗普曾多次威胁，如果两国未能达成结束战争的协议，将恢复对伊朗的军事行动，包括在周二公开表示他距离重启轰炸仅差一小时，这意味着这些军事能力可能会派上用场。
其中一名消息人士告诉CNN，伊朗能够以远超预期的速度进行重建，原因是多方面的，包括俄罗斯和中国提供的支持，以及美国和以色列造成的破坏并未如两国所愿那般严重。两名熟悉美国情报评估的消息人士称，例如，中国在冲突期间继续向伊朗提供可用于制造导弹的部件，不过这一行为可能因美国 ongoing 封锁而受到限制。
以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡上周告诉哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS），中国正在向伊朗提供“导弹制造部件”，但拒绝进一步详述。
中国外交部发言人郭佳坤在新闻发布会上否认了这一指控，称其“没有事实依据”。
与此同时，根据近期美国情报评估，尽管美以空袭造成了严重破坏，但伊朗仍保留了弹道导弹、无人机攻击和防空能力，这意味着军事生产能力的快速重建并非从零开始。
美国中央司令部发言人拒绝置评，表示该司令部不会讨论与情报相关的事宜。
五角大楼发言人肖恩·帕内尔在一份给CNN的声明中表示：“美国军队是世界上最强大的军队，拥有在总统选择的时间和地点执行任务所需的一切。”
“我们已经在多个作战司令部 across 执行了多次成功的行动，同时确保美国军队拥有强大的武器库，以保护我们的人民和利益，”帕内尔补充道。
CNN在4月曾报道，美国情报评估显示伊朗约一半的导弹发射器在美国空袭中幸存下来。据熟悉情报情况的消息人士称，最近的一份报告将这一比例提升至三分之二，部分原因是持续的停火让伊朗有时间挖出可能在之前空袭中被掩埋的发射器。
美国的情报评估总数可能包括目前无法使用的发射器，例如那些在空袭中被埋在地下但未被摧毁的发射器。
两名此前向CNN透露情报情况的消息人士称，伊朗仍有数千架无人机——约占该国无人机能力的50%。
情报还显示，伊朗很大一部分海岸防御巡航导弹完好无损，这与美国未将空袭重点放在沿海军事资产上的情况一致，尽管美军曾袭击过船只。这些导弹是伊朗威胁霍尔木兹海峡航运交通的关键能力之一。
综合来看，近期美国情报报告压倒性地表明，这场战争削弱了伊朗的军事能力，但并未将其摧毁，伊朗证明了它们可以通过在空袭后快速重建，有效限制战争的长期影响。
这包括重建其国防工业基地，而中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将周二曾表示，该基地已基本被摧毁。
“‘史诗之怒’行动严重削弱了伊朗的弹道导弹和无人机能力，摧毁了其90%的国防工业基地，确保伊朗在数年内无法重建，”库珀在周二众议院军事委员会听证会上作证时说道。
但库珀的证词与美国关于伊朗重建军事能力的能力和时间表的情报评估形成鲜明对比，两名消息人士告诉CNN，情报内容与中央司令部指挥官的描述不一致。
一名熟悉近期美国情报评估的消息人士告诉CNN，伊朗国防工业基地遭受的破坏可能只会将其重建能力推迟数月，而非数年。该消息人士指出，伊朗的部分国防工业基地仍完好无损，这可能进一步加快某些能力的重建时间表。
CNN的黑利·布里茨基为本报道做出了贡献。
Iran rebuilding military industrial base faster than expected, already producing drones, according to US intel
2026-05-21T07:09:36.243Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/21/politics/iran-military-rebuild
Iran has already restarted some of its drone production during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April, one sign it is rapidly rebuilding certain military capabilities degraded by US-Israeli strikes, according to two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments. Four sources told CNN that US intelligence indicates Iran’s military is reconstituting much faster than initially estimated.
The rebuilding of military capabilities, including replacing missile sites, launchers and production capacity for key weapons systems destroyed during the current conflict, means that Iran remains a significant threat to regional allies should President Donald Trump restart the bombing campaign, according to the four sources familiar with the intelligence. It also calls into question claims about the extent to which US-Israeli strikes have degraded Iran’s military in the long term.
While the time to restart production of different weapons components varies, some US intelligence estimates indicate Iran could fully reconstitute its drone attack capability in as soon as six months, one of the sources, a US official, told CNN.
“The Iranians have exceeded all timelines the IC had for reconstitution,” the US official said.
Drone attacks are a particular concern for regional allies. If hostilities resume, Iran could augment its missile production capability — which has been significantly degraded — with more drone launches, to continue firing at Israel and Gulf countries that are well within range of both weapons systems.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to resume combat operations against Iran if the two countries fail to reach a deal to end the war, including saying publicly on Tuesday that he’d been an hour from restarting bombing, meaning these military capabilities could come into play.
Iran has been able to rebuild much faster than expected due to a combination of factors, ranging from support it is receiving from Russia and China to the fact that the US and Israel did not inflict as much damage as the two countries had hoped, one of the sources told CNN. For example, China has continued to provide Iran with components during the conflict that can be used to build missiles, two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments told CNN, though that has likely been curtailed by the ongoing US blockade.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CBS last week that China is giving Iran “components of missile manufacturing” but declined to elaborate further.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun denied the allegation during a press conference, calling it “not based on facts.”
Meanwhile, Iran also still maintains ballistic-missile, drone-attack and anti-air capability despite the serious damage inflicted by US-Israeli strikes, according to recent US intelligence assessments, meaning the quick rebuilding of military production capacity isn’t starting from scratch.
A spokesperson for US Central Command declined to comment, saying the command does not discuss matters related to intelligence.
Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told CNN in a statement that “America’s military is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing.”
“We have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests,” Parnell added.
CNN reported in April that US intelligence assessed that roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers had survived US strikes. A recent report increased that figure to two thirds partially due to the ongoing ceasefire providing Iran with time to dig out launchers that might have been buried in previous strikes, according to sources familiar with the intelligence.
The US intelligence assessment total may include launchers that are currently inaccessible, such as those buried underground by strikes but not destroyed.
Thousands of Iranian drones still exist — roughly 50% of the country’s drone capabilities — two sources previously told CNN the intelligence indicated.
The intelligence also showed a large percentage of Iran’s coastal defense cruise missiles were intact, consistent with the US not focusing its air campaign on coastal military assets though they have been hitting ships. Those missiles serve as a key capability allowing Iran to threaten shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Taken together, recent US intelligence reports overwhelmingly suggest that the war has degraded Iran’s military capabilities, but not destroyed them, with the Iranians demonstrating they can effectively limit the long-term impact of the war by quickly reconstituting after those strikes.
That includes rebuilding its defense industrial base, which CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said on Tuesday has been largely eliminated.
“Operation Epic Fury significantly degraded Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones while destroying 90% of their defense industrial base, ensuring Iran cannot reconstitute for years,” Cooper testified during Tuesday’s hearing before the House Armed Services Committee.
But Cooper’s testimony stands in stark contrast to US intelligence assessments examining Iran’s ability to rebuild its military capabilities and the timeline in which they are able to do so, with two sources telling CNN the intelligence is inconsistent with the descriptions provided by the CENTCOM commander.
One of the sources familiar with recent US intelligence assessments told CNN that the damage to Iran’s defense industrial base has likely set its ability to reconstitute back by a matter of months, not years. And some of Iran’s defense industrial base remains intact, which could further accelerate the timeline for reconstituting certain capabilities, the source noted.
CNN’s Haley Britzky contributed to this story.
发表回复