记者手记:尽管共和党在南方获得重划选区优势,民主党仍称可拿下众议院多数席位


2026年5月18日 美国东部时间下午3:09 / 福克斯新闻频道

从得克萨斯州到南卡罗来纳州都在重划选区地图,本尼·汤普森议员直言“这关乎种族”
作者:查德·珀格拉姆 福克斯新闻

重划选区与种族问题。

民主党人对共和党在重划选区——尤其是在南方——的所作所为感到怒不可遏。

“我们眼下看到的是对黑人候选人获得国会席位合法机会的攻击,”来自阿拉巴马州的民主党众议员绍马利·菲格尔斯说道,他所在的莫比尔选区正面临丢失风险。

民主党人表示他们清楚共和党打的是什么算盘。

“他们还一直试图扼杀美国历史的教学,对吧?粉饰美国历史,”前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯说道。

最高法院关于选举权的重磅裁决引燃南部各州重划选区大战

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前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯于2026年5月7日在内华达州拉斯维加斯“拉斯维加斯会面”活动的炉边谈话中发言(伊恩·莫尔/盖蒂图片社摄)

得克萨斯州、路易斯安那州、田纳西州、阿拉巴马州——如今佐治亚州和南卡罗来纳州也在为众议院议员重划选区地图。这是在密苏里州完成地图修订之后的事。其中许多新选区正在挤压国会黑人核心小组成员的生存空间。

从本质上讲,民主党人将此视为共和党的“南方战略”,旨在铲除黑人议员。

“这关乎种族,”来自密西西比州的民主党众议员本尼·汤普森说道,他是国土安全委员会的民主党最高顺位议员。

“我感觉自己遭到了袭击,”来自密苏里州的民主党众议员伊曼纽尔·克利弗说道。

“我们以前见过这种场面,”来自纽约州的民主党众议员格雷格·米克斯说道,他是外交事务委员会的民主党最高顺位议员。

“坦率地说,针对全国黑人选民的歧视性重划选区行动,可能会让我们失去多达19名国会黑人核心小组成员,”来自纽约州的民主党众议员亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科特兹说道。

共和党方面则表示,风水轮流转才公平。他们指出,新英格兰六个州连一名共和党议员都找不到。

“这太不正常了,失衡了。我认为共和党人终于在法律环境变化后醒悟过来,开始意识到‘也许我们需要重新考虑本州的议事方式’,”来自南卡罗来纳州的共和党众议员拉塞尔·弗莱说道。

南卡罗来纳州最初对绘制新地图犹豫不决。但在特朗普总统要求该州“完成这项工作”后,这个“棕榈州”改变了立场。他指示南卡罗来纳州的共和党人要“大胆且果敢”。

别忘了,印第安纳州的共和党州参议员曾因该州拒绝特朗普关于当地重划选区的恳求而遭到总统的怒斥。特朗普政府发起了一场党内斗争。特朗普总统的盟友推翻了五名与其意见相左的共和党州参议员。

因此南卡罗来纳州迅速照办了。

“南卡罗来纳州民众非常支持唐纳德·特朗普总统,”南卡罗来纳州共和党众议员乔·威尔逊说道。“他们完全清楚我们正身处一场冲突之中。一场全国性的冲突。”

南卡罗来纳州的新地图可能意味着该州代表团中将没有一名民主党议员。这可能会让前众议院多数党党鞭、来自南卡罗来纳州的民主党众议员吉姆·克莱伯恩的选区不复存在。克莱伯恩1993年首次进入国会山,他因挽救前总统拜登2020年的竞选活动而广受赞誉,帮助拜登在南卡罗来纳州初选中胜出,最终入主白宫。

尽管如此,民主党人仍相信他们能够拿下众议院多数席位,即便共和党正试图通过重划选区来挤压民主党空间。

“我们已经确定了45个在即将到来的中期选举中有望拿下的摇摆选区,”众议院少数党领袖、来自纽约州的民主党人哈基姆·杰弗里斯说道。

民主党人认为他们可以在加利福尼亚州大幅领先。在亚利桑那州和科罗拉多州拿下几个共和党席位,或许还能在犹他州拿下一个。在当地完成重划选区后,再在得克萨斯州争取几个席位。在蒙大拿州角逐一个席位。在宾夕法尼亚州拿下一两个席位。尽管弗吉尼亚州最高法院做出了相关裁决,但仍可在弗吉尼亚州拿下两个席位。在新泽西州和纽约州再拿下几个席位。

别忘了,民主党只需要净增三个席位就能拿下众议院多数席位。

不过,这道“蓝色壁垒”此次可能无法在新英格兰所有地区坚守。

来自缅因州的民主党众议员贾里德·戈尔登即将退休。他是国会中最温和的民主党议员之一。副总统JD·万斯最近刚前往缅因州班戈,谈论选举欺诈问题,并为前缅因州共和党州长保罗·勒帕热的竞选造势。

勒帕热若胜选时将年满78岁,成为国会历史上最年长的新任议员。不过这颇具讽刺意味:缅因州民主党州长珍妮特·米尔斯原本参选参议院,但后来退出了竞选。一些民主党人认为她年龄太大。如果米尔斯坚持参选并获胜,作为新任参议员时她将年满79岁。

但回到民主党面临的困境。

在最高法院做出《选举权法案》相关裁决以及弗吉尼亚州最高法院否决全州重划选区公投这双重打击之后,民主党正试图站稳脚跟。众议院民主党人召开闭门会议,讨论他们的作战计划。

“我现在比以往任何时候都更有干劲,要确保我们投身竞选、开展工作,不惜一切代价赢得选举,”米克斯说道。

“我们会赢的,”负责民主党国会竞选委员会(DCCC)的华盛顿州民主党众议员苏珊·德尔贝内说道。该委员会是众议院民主党人的政治 arm。

“民主党人准备动用一切可用手段来影响选举结果,”汤普森说道。

这番话听起来有点像毫无实际方向的政治套话。

本刊记者追问汤普森。

“恕我直言,这一切听起来都很模糊。在那两项法院裁决之后,你们现在正面临一场五级火警,但我没有听到任何具体细节,”我反驳汤普森道。

“那你就等着瞧吧,”汤普森回敬道。

“但这怎么能说服选民呢?”我们敬业的记者问道。

“听着,”汤普森说道。“我们距离一项离谱的最高法院裁决还有两周时间。你不能指望任何人现在就拿出战略方案。”

要知道,这项可能会削弱民主党拿下众议院机会的裁决,正是在两周后公布?别忘了,最高法院去年就同意审理这起案件,口头辩论已于去年秋季进行。民主党人清楚这起案件的严重性,也清楚它可能会破坏他们在中期选举中拿下众议院的任何计划。

民主党寄希望于共和党在重划选区问题上做得过火。但在他们就此召开闭门会议后,民主党如何动员其选民基础仍不明朗。

“美国民众将做出这个决定。这是美国民主的一大优点。我们正在努力,”来自纽约州的民主党众议员乔·莫雷尔说道,他是众议院行政委员会的民主党最高顺位议员。

全国范围内重划选区大战愈演愈烈,两党为2026年中期选举争夺权力

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唐纳德·特朗普总统于2026年5月6日在华盛顿特区白宫东厅的军事母亲节活动中发表讲话(尤里·格里帕斯/阿巴卡/彭博社 via 盖蒂图片社摄)

但“努力”并不一定能赢得选票。如果民主党不在这个问题上努力,那才是新闻。

“不过这听起来算不上什么具体计划,莫雷尔先生?”本刊记者插话道。

“我不会把我的具体计划告诉你的,”莫雷尔回答道。

一群北部民主党人——从奥卡西奥-科特兹到新泽西州民主党参议员科里·布克——于周末前往阿拉巴马州蒙哥马利,就共和党重划选区的诡计提出抗议。

“我们终将克服,”布克吟诵道。

来自伊利诺伊州的民主党众议员乔纳森·杰克逊——已故杰西·杰克逊牧师的儿子——现在正呼吁在南方上学的黑人运动员转学至北方打球。

这又是另一种让十大联盟对阵东南联盟的手段。

在南方集会或许能激发黑人选民的热情。但如果他们只是在民主党无法获胜的选区提高投票率——由于选区边界被重划——这对民主党夺回众议院席位毫无帮助。

然而,如果民主党确实成功动员了选民投票——但竞争环境对他们不利——那么今年秋天我们可能会看到一个计量经济学上的反常现象。

2012年是总统选举年。民主党在2010年中期选举惨败后失去众议院控制权,未能重新夺回多数席位。在奥巴马总统参选的情况下,2012年民主党在全国众议院选举中获得的票数比共和党多出近160万张,但仍未能拿下众议院多数席位。

共和党于1994年首次在四十年来首次从民主党手中拿下众议院控制权。但在1996年克林顿总统轻松连任第二届任期时,民主党仍未能夺回众议院多数席位。当年民主党在全国众议院普选中的得票率比共和党高出近30万张。

民主党曾在加利福尼亚州重划选区以利于己方,但共和党在南方的重划选区行动似乎已经超越了这一点。民主党完全有可能在全国众议院普选中获得更多选票,却仍无法夺回众议院多数席位。这种统计现象在中期选举年——而非总统选举年——中更为明显,就像克林顿和奥巴马两届政府期间在任总统成功连任的情况一样。

这就是为什么一些民主党人认为他们本应该在重划选区问题上采取更激进的行动。

马里兰州就是一个典型案例。由民主党控制的州议会放弃了机会。

“我认为我们当时有机会这么做。我当时支持这么做,现在仍然认为这是我们应该采取的正确举措,”来自马里兰州的民主党参议员安吉拉·奥尔布鲁克斯说道。“这是非常时期。我认为我们应该采取非常措施,确保选票能够被有效统计。”

如果马里兰州重划选区,整个州都将变成蓝色选区,将众议院自由核心小组主席、来自马里兰州的共和党众议员安迪·哈里斯挤出其选区。

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民主党人将共和党的战术视为生存性的政治威胁。特朗普总统在2024年大选中获得了约五分之一的黑人男性选民支持。这就是为什么民主党将这场斗争置于民权框架之下。

这是一场关于重划选区的斗争。但民主党人也将其视为一场——关乎种族的斗争。

查德·珀格拉姆目前担任福克斯新闻频道(FNC)首席国会通讯员。他于2007年9月加入该电视台,总部位于华盛顿特区。

Reporter’s Notebook: Democrats say they can still flip the House despite GOP redistricting gains in the South

May 18, 2026 3:09pm EDT / Fox News

Rep. Bennie Thompson says flatly ‘it’s about race’ as states from Texas to South Carolina redraw maps

By Chad Pergram Fox News

Redistricting and race.

Democrats are beside themselves, watching what Republicans are doing on redistricting — especially in the South.

“What we’re seeing is an attack on legitimate opportunities for Black candidates to have representation here in Congress,” said Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Ala., who is on track to lose his district in Mobile.

Democrats say they know what Republicans are up to.

“They’ve also been trying to eliminate teaching America’s history, right? Whitewashing America’s history,” said former Vice President Kamala Harris.

BLOCKBUSTER SUPREME COURT VOTING RIGHTS RULING IGNITES REDISTRICTING WAR ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES

Former Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a fireside chat at MEET Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on May 7, 2026.(Ian Maule/Getty Images)

States like Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama – and now Georgia and South Carolina are redrawing district maps for House Members. That’s after Missouri revamped its maps. Many of these new districts are squeezing out members of the Congressional Black Caucus.

In essence, Democrats see this as a “Southern Strategy” by the GOP, stamping out Black lawmakers.

“It’s about race,” said Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., the top Democrat on the Homeland Security Committee.

“I feel like I’ve been assaulted,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo.

“We’ve seen this before,” said Rep. Greg Meeks, D-N.Y., the top Democrat on the Foreign Affairs Committee.

“We’re looking at losing possibly 19 members of the Congressional Black Caucus because of this frankly racist redistricting efforts targeted towards disenfranchising Black voters across the country,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.

Republicans say turnabout is fair play. They note that you can’t find a Republican anywhere in the six states which comprise New England.

“It’s out of whack. It’s out of balance. And I think Republicans are finally waking up given the legal landscape changes and going, ‘Well, maybe we need to reconsider the way that we do things in our state,’” said Rep. Russell Fry, R-S.C.

South Carolina initially balked at drawing new maps. But the Palmetto State reversed course after President Trump demanded the state “get it done.” He instructed South Carolina Republicans to be “bold and courageous.”

Don’t forget that GOP Indiana state senators faced the President’s ire after the Hoosier State rejected his entreaties for redistricting there. The Trump White House waged an internecine campaign. President Trump’s allies toppled five Republican state senators who crossed him.

So South Carolina snapped to attention.

“The people of South Carolina are very supportive of President Donald Trump,” said Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC). “They understand perfectly that we’re in a conflict. A nationwide conflict.”

New maps in South Carolina could mean no Democrats in the state delegation. That could eliminate the district of former House Majority Whip and Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C. Clyburn first came to Capitol Hill in 1993. He’s widely regarded for salvaging the 2020 campaign of former President Biden, helping him ride to victory in the South Carolina primary.

Still, Democrats believe they can seize the House, even as Republicans try to squeeze the map through redistricting.

“There are 45 districts in play that we’ve identified as opportunities to flip in this upcoming midterm election,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.

Democrats believe they’ll run up the scoreboard in California. Pluck off a couple of Republicans in Arizona and Colorado. Maybe one in Utah. Take a few in Texas after redistricting there. Make a play for a seat in Montana. Win a seat or two in Pennsylvania. Claim two seats in Virginia – despite the Virginia Supreme Court ruling there. Pick up a couple of seats in New Jersey and New York.

Remember that Democrats just need a net gain of three seats to secure the House majority.

However, that “blue wall” might not hold in all of New England this time around.

Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, is retiring. He’s one of the most moderate Democrats in Congress. Vice President JD Vance just traveled to Bangor, Maine, recently to talk about fraud – and boost the campaign prospects of former Republican Maine Gov. Paul LePage.

LePage is running to succeed Golden. Republicans are bullish about their chances in northern Maine.

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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., speaks during a “New York is Not For Sale” rally at Forest Hills Stadium on Oct. 26, 2025.(Stephani Spindel/VIEWpress via Getty Images)

LePage will be 78 if he wins – the oldest freshman in congressional history. However, this is ironic. Maine’s Democrat Gov. Janet Mills was running for Senate – but bowed out. Some Democrats believed she was too old. Mills would have been 79 as a freshman senator had she stayed in the race and prevailed.

But back to what faces the Democrats.

Democrats are trying to find their footing after the double whammy of the Supreme Court Voting Rights Act decision and the Virginia Supreme Court rejecting the statewide redistricting referendum. House Democrats huddled to discuss their battle plan.

“I’m more energized now than ever to make sure that we’re in the field, that we’re doing the work and whatever it has to take to win,” said Meeks.

“We’re going to win,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). That’s the House Democrats’ political arm.

“Democrats are prepared to use whatever levers we can to influence the outcome of the election,” said Thompson.

Some of this sounded a little like political pablum with no real direction.

Yours truly pressed Thompson.

“Respectfully, this all sounds kind of vague. You guys have a five-alarm fire now after those two court decisions, and I’m not hearing any specifics,” I countered Thompson.

“Well, you just stay tuned,” countered Thompson.

“How does that convince the voters, though?” your trusty reporter queried.

“Look,” said Thompson. “We are two weeks away from a crazy Supreme Court decision. You can’t expect anyone to come with a strategy right now.”

Two weeks after the decision which could hamstring Democrats’ chances to win the House? Never mind that the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case last year and oral arguments were in the fall. Democrats understood the gravity of this case and how it could chew into any plan to flip the House in the midterms.

Democrats are banking on Republicans overplaying their redistricting hands. But how Democrats energize their base wasn’t immediately clear after their conclave on the subject.

“The American public gets to make this decision. That’s a great thing about American democracy. And we’re working,” said Rep. Joe Morelle, D-N.Y., the top Democrat on the House Administration Committee.

REDISTRICTING BATTLES BREWING ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS PARTIES COMPETE FOR POWER AHEAD OF 2026 MIDTERMS

President Donald Trump speaks during a military Mother’s Day event in the East Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on May 6, 2026.(Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

But “working” doesn’t necessarily garner votes. It would be “news” if the Democrats weren’t working on the issue.

“That doesn’t sound like much of a concrete plan, though, Mr. Morelle?” yours truly interjected.

“I am not going to share my concrete plan with you,” replied Morelle.

A group of northern Democrats – ranging from Ocasio-Cortez to Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., headed to Montgomery, Ala., over the weekend to make the case against the GOP’s redistricting ploys.

“We shall overcome,” intoned Booker.

Rep. Jonathan Jackson, D-Ill., son of the late Rev. Jesse Jackson, is now imploring Black student-athletes who attend school in the South to enter the transfer portal and play instead in the North.

Yet another way to pit the Big Ten against the SEC.

Rallying in the South may rile up Black voters. But it won’t help Democrats take back the House if all they’re doing is driving up voter participation in districts Democrats can’t win – thanks to the redrawing of the boundaries.

However, if Democrats do succeed in getting people to the polls – yet the playing field is tilted against them – we could be in for an econometric anomaly this fall.

It was a presidential election year in 2012. Democrats failed to win control of the House after losing it in a 2010 midterm shellacking. With President Obama on the ballot, Democrats secured nearly 1.6 million more votes than Republicans in House races nationwide in 2012. Yet Democrats failed to win the House.

Republicans won control of the House from the Democrats in 1994 for the first time in four decades. But with President Clinton handily riding to a second term in 1996, Democrats still struggled to win back the House. Democrats outpaced Republicans in the popular vote for the House that year by nearly 300,000 votes nationally.

Democrats have redrawn lines in their favor in California. But Republicans appear to have superseded that with their lines in the South. It’s a distinct possibility that Democrats could command more popular votes for House seats nationwide – and not get back the House. This statistical phenomenon is even more glaring that the party with the most popular votes fails to control the House in a midterm – not a presidential election year when a sitting executive is returned to the White House in the cases of Presidents Clinton and Obama.

That’s why some Democrats believe they should have been even more aggressive with redistricting.

Maryland is a case study. The Democratically-controlled state took a pass.

“I believe that we had an opportunity to do that. I supported it, and I still believe that would have been the right course for us to take,” said Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, D-Md. “These are extraordinary times And I think we should take extraordinary measures to protect the opportunity to have those votes counted.”

Maryland would have made the entire state blue, drawing out of his seat Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., chair of the House Freedom Caucus.

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Democrats see the GOP tactics as an existential political threat. President Trump commanded about one-fifth of Black male voters in 2024. And that’s why Democrats are framing this fight around civil rights.

It’s a race about redistricting. But Democrats also see this as a race – about race.

Chad Pergram currently serves as Chief Congressional Correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based out of Washington, D.C.

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