2026-05-18T18:56:52.707Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
亚伦·布莱克 分析报道
34分钟前发布
发布于 2026年5月18日，美国东部时间下午2:56
罗伯托·施密特/盖蒂图片社 摄
如果说有哪个选民群体与唐纳德·特朗普总统的政治崛起——以及后来的“东山再起”——密不可分，那就是没有大学学位的白人选民。
美国政坛正日益被教育背景分化：受教育程度更高的选民更倾向民主党，而受教育程度较低的选民则更支持共和党。这类群体中的白人选民构成了特朗普竞选联盟的中坚力量，根据CNN出口民调数据，他三次参选总统期间，约三分之二的该群体选民都投了他的票。
但随着特朗普的支持率跌至新低，越来越多迹象表明，他对这一群体的牢牢掌控正在减弱。
而这看起来更有可能在2026年中期选举中伤及共和党，尤其是在该群体对特朗普的经济治理感到不满的情况下。
尽管特朗普在三次竞选活动中都拿下了该群体66%或67%的支持，但近期多数民调显示，大多数没有大学学历的美国白人选民现在对特朗普持不认可态度。
这包括CNN民调（51%不认可）、福克斯新闻民调（51%）、NPR/PBS/马里斯特学院民调（52%）、皮尤研究中心民调（52%）以及周日发布的最新CBS新闻/舆观民调（54%）。
也有一些近期民调显示特朗普在无大学学历白人选民中的表现更好，包括周一发布的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调（不支持率为44%）。但就目前而言，这只是个例。
特朗普在该群体中的支持率下滑程度似乎前所未有。
特朗普第一任期内的CNN民调偶尔显示，他在无大学学历白人选民中的不支持率接近半数，但从未超过47%。
在过去15个月里，他在该群体中的受欢迎度跌幅相当大。2025年2月的CNN民调显示，该群体中有63%的人认可特朗普的表现，如今这一比例已降至49%。特朗普在这些选民中的净支持率从高出26个百分点跌至负2个百分点。
CBS民调的跌幅更大，从去年2月的68%一路降至如今的46%。
要将特朗普在该群体中的支持率下滑归结为少数几个具体原因并非易事。但显然经济因素起到了重要作用。
2022年和2024年 Kamala Harris参选时，仅有32%的无大学学历白人选民投票给民主党，而在最新民调中：
- 根据最新CNN民调，56%的人表示特朗普的政策让美国的经济状况恶化。
- CNN民调中67%的人表示，伊朗战争对他们的财务状况产生了负面影响。
- CNN民调中56%的人表示特朗普的关税政策对他们的财务产生了负面影响，仅有20%的人认为关税带来了积极影响。
- CBS民调显示，60%的人认为特朗普的政策短期内会让经济形势更糟。
- CBS民调中41%的人认为，从长期来看特朗普的政策也会让经济更糟——这一比例超过了35%认为特朗普政策最终会让经济变好的人群。
- CBS民调中的大多数受访者表示，特朗普“不太”（13%）或“完全不”（44%）关心他们的需求和问题。
当下最直接的政治问题是，这些民调数据将如何转化为2026年中期选举的实际选票——届时特朗普并不会参选。
该选民群体不太可能转而支持民主党，但如果共和党在该群体中的支持率跌破60%，那将是特朗普时代前所未有的情况。
特朗普在历次选举中都以34至37个百分点的优势拿下该群体。2022年中期选举中，共和党以34个百分点的优势赢得该群体选票。特朗普时代共和党在该群体中的最差表现是2018年中期选举，当时共和党以24个百分点的优势（61%比37%）胜出，民主党也在那一年夺回了众议院控制权。
根据CNN、福克斯新闻、马里斯特学院和《纽约时报》近期民调的所谓“通用选票”平均数据，目前共和党在该群体中的领先优势仅为17个百分点。
共和党平均获得55%的支持，民主党为38%。
大选还有五个多月才举行，这意味着特朗普仍有机会重新夺回他在这个曾对他和共和党表现出相当忠诚度的群体中失去的支持。
但就目前而言，特朗普及其所在政党在 arguably their most important demographic group.这个 arguably可以说是他们最重要的选民群体中，显然面临着严重的问题。
Trump is losing his grip on his most important demographic
2026-05-18T18:56:52.707Z / CNN
Analysis by Aaron Blake
34 min ago
PUBLISHED May 18, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
President Donald Trump leaves after speaking at The Villages Charter School on May 1, in The Villages, Florida.
Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images
If there’s one demographic group that is synonymous with President Donald Trump’s political rise — and his later rebirth — it’s the White voter without a college degree.
American politics is increasingly split by education, with more formally educated voters going for the Democrats and less formally educated voters going for the Republicans. And White voters in the latter group have formed the backbone of Trump’s coalition, with about two-thirds of them voting for him in each of his three presidential runs, according to CNN exit polling.
But as Trump’s approval rating has fallen to new lows, there are increasing signs that his hammerlock on this group is waning.
And it’s looking more like that could damage Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections, particularly as this group sours on the president’s stewardship of the economy.
Despite Trump taking 66% or 67% of this group in each of his three campaigns, most recent polls show a majority of non-college-educated White Americans now disapprove of Trump.
That includes a CNN poll (51%), a Fox News poll (51%), an NPR/PBS/Marist College poll (52%), a Pew Research Center poll (52%) and a new CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday (54%).
There are some recent polls that show Trump in better shape among non-college White voters, including a New York Times/Siena College poll on Monday (44% disapproval). But right now, that’s the exception.
The extent to which Trump’s struggles with this group appears to be unprecedented.
CNN polling in his first term occasionally showed Trump’s disapproval rating among non-college Whites trending toward half. But it never reached higher than 47%.
His drop in popularity among this group has also been rather large over the course of the last 15 months. While 63% of this group approved of Trump in a February 2025 CNN poll, that’s now dropped to 49%. Trump has gone from a plus-26 net approval rating to a minus-2 among these Americans.
The CBS polling has shown an even larger drop, from 68% in February of last year all the way down to 46% today.
It can be difficult to boil Trump’s decline among this group down to a few specifics. But it’s clear that the economy is playing a large role.
While exit polls showed just 32% of these non-college White Americans voted for Democrats in 2022 and for Kamala Harris in 2024:
- 56% of them say Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the country, per the new CNN poll.
- 67% in the CNN poll say the Iran war has negatively impacted their financial situation.
- 56% in the CNN poll say Trump’s tariffs have had a negative impact on their finances, compared to just 20% who say they’ve had a positive impact.
- 60% say Trump’s politics are making the economy worse in the short-term, per the CBS poll.
- 41% in the CBS poll say they’ll also make the economy worse over the long-term – more than the 35% who believe they’ll ultimately make the economy better.
- A majority in the CBS poll says Trump cares about their needs and problems either “not much” (13%) or “not at all” (44%).
The immediate political question is, of course, how these numbers will translate into actual votes in the 2026 midterm elections, when Trump is not on the ballot.
It’s unlikely this demographic would favor Democrats, but if the GOP’s support among this group even just dropped below 60%, that would be unprecedented in the Trump era.
Trump has won this demographic by between 34 and 37 points in each election. The GOP won it by 34 points in the 2022 midterms. The party’s worst performance in the Trump era came when it won these voters by 24 points (61%-37%) in the 2018 midterms, when Democrats flipped the House.
Right now, the GOP leads among these voters by an average of just 17 points, according to an average of the so-called generic ballot in recent polls conducted by CNN, Fox, Marist and the New York Times.
Republicans are averaging 55%, while Democrats are averaging 38%.
The general election is more than five months away, which means there’s still time for Trump to claw back some of the support he’s lost among a group that has proven rather loyal to him and the GOP.
But right now, Trump and his party look like they have significant problems with arguably their most important demographic group.
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