2026年5月15日 / 美国东部时间上午5:00 / KFF健康新闻
美国卫生与公众服务部部长小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪正陷入两难境地：一边是“让美国再次健康”（MAHA）的支持者，他们希望他为推进自身优先事项付出更多努力，包括限制疫苗接种；另一边是白宫，后者正试图化解特朗普总统的不受欢迎局面。
肯尼迪最近在俄亥俄州北部巡回演讲期间，在克利夫兰城市俱乐部发表讲话时，场内传来抗议者的口号声。他呼吁父母在儿童疫苗接种问题上拥有更多“选择权”，这一言论获得了现场一半听众的掌声。另一半听众则发出了恼怒的叹息和倒抽气的声音。
他的行程即将变得更加繁忙：肯尼迪预计将为共和党议员助选，前往即将到来的中期选举中竞争激烈的州开展竞选活动。
肯尼迪出席竞选活动的目的是巩固共和党候选人的支持基础。但他针对性的露面也凸显出他面临着日益激烈的拉锯战：他既要努力维持共和党选民，尤其是MAHA支持者的持久政治支持度。
他面临的挑战因白宫与肯尼迪反疫苗运动之间日益扩大的裂痕而变得更加复杂。一些MAHA的追随者认为自己遭到了特朗普政府的背叛，他们称政府没有采取更多措施限制农药、停止新冠疫苗接种，或调查关于飞机凝结尾迹毒害天空的阴谋论，从而阻碍了该运动的议程。
与此同时，MAHA阵营中的一些人希望肯尼迪宣布自己将参加2028年白宫竞选。
但肯尼迪表示他没有这样的打算。5月7日，当KFF健康新闻记者问他是否认为自己可以作为共和党人再次竞选总统时，他坚定地回答：“不，我不会参选。”
如果改变参选立场，肯尼迪将与特朗普总统发生冲突。据报道，特朗普正在考虑国务卿马可·卢比奥和副总统JD·万斯作为潜在的继任者。（特朗普本人也曾考虑过在2028年再次参选，但根据美国宪法第二十二修正案，他将被禁止参选。）肯尼迪参选还可能大幅分散特朗普政府在MAHA其他事业上的精力，因为这位部长很可能会辞去卫生与公众服务部的职务。
2025年4月16日，卫生与公众服务部部长小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪在华盛顿特区的一场新闻发布会上发言。亚历克斯·王 / 盖蒂图片社
“如果他不再担任部长，那么MAHA的影响力将大幅减弱，”曾在特朗普政府第一任期担任卫生与公众服务部副助理部长的大卫·曼斯德弗尔说道。
“鲍比参选是完全合乎逻辑的，”东北大学公共政策与政治学教授克里斯托弗·博索说道，“肯尼迪正在做一名好士兵，但能做到什么程度？这将是一个问题。”
“严重的失误”
特朗普政府最近的一系列行动激怒了MAHA的支持者。总统在4月提名了医生、疫苗支持者埃丽卡·施瓦茨担任美国疾病控制与预防中心主任。肯尼迪解雇了该机构前主任苏珊·莫纳雷斯；莫纳雷斯作证称，她被解雇是因为没有预先批准疫苗推荐方案。
施瓦茨的提名以及白宫试图让肯尼迪将注意力从疫苗问题上转移开来的做法，与2024年形成了鲜明对比——当时特朗普曾承诺允许肯尼迪在卫生问题上“为所欲为”。
在一次采访中，肯尼迪表示“我认为我已经”在卫生问题上“为所欲为”了。他驳斥了白宫限制其工作的说法。
“特朗普总统让我做的工作比历史上任何一位卫生与公众服务部部长都多，”肯尼迪说道。
肯尼迪表示他支持施瓦茨，但他上个月对议员们表示，他没有与特朗普讨论过她的提名。MAHA的追随者批评施瓦茨支持新冠疫苗接种，并将此作为白宫限制卫生部长权力的证据。
“特朗普提名的CDC主任埃丽卡·施瓦茨可能会是一场灾难，”肯尼迪的盟友、律师亚伦·西里在X平台上说道，他援引了施瓦茨支持新冠疫苗推广的工作经历。
特朗普还撤回了对健康博主凯西·米恩斯的提名，米恩斯是肯尼迪的另一位盟友，此前他被提名为美国卫生局局长。5月，总统提名了放射科医生、前福克斯新闻撰稿人妮可·萨菲尔。MAHA的追随者抨击了这一任命，称其反映了该职位更主流、更传统的医疗政策取向。米恩斯曾因质疑避孕方法并拒绝承认已被证伪的疫苗与自闭症之间的联系而遭到一些共和党参议员的反对。
“不要选萨菲尔当卫生局局长！！！我们要医疗自由！！！如果不能选凯西——那我们谁都不支持！”MAHA网红瓦尼·哈里5月1日在X平台上说道。
综合来看，这些行动有可能削弱MAHA对共和党候选人的支持。但许多处于竞争激烈选区的共和党人已经开始与由肯尼迪领导的、持疫苗怀疑态度的基层“医疗自由”运动保持距离。
许多MAHA支持者还对特朗普政府放宽环境监管、推广农药的指令感到失望。一些人现在认为肯尼迪当选总统对实现他们的政策目标至关重要。
斯蒂芬妮·魏德尔“百分百”希望看到肯尼迪再次参选。这位34岁的华盛顿特区居民上个月在最高法院外参加了一场抗议除草剂草甘膦保护措施的集会。
作为一名可靠的共和党选民，魏德尔称政府的行动令人失望。她希望肯尼迪在审查儿童疫苗接种计划和限制农作物化学物质使用方面采取更多行动。
“他的手脚被束缚住了，”魏德尔在谈到肯尼迪时说道。她认为白宫已经下令他放弃这些有争议的议题。“共和党人在竞选时没有以MAHA为核心，这是一个严重的失误。”
疫苗是引爆点
在这种复杂的局势中，肯尼迪正试图在白宫和MAHA支持者之间找到平衡点：白宫希望他停止抨击疫苗，而MAHA支持者则希望他做得更多。他试图安抚双方，既赞扬了萨菲尔的卫生局局长提名，还在X平台上将她描述为“MAHA运动的长期战士”。
他还缓和了自己在公开场合对疫苗问题的关注。他的播客原本旨在“揭露导致疾病的谎言”，现在已经偏离了疫苗主题，转而聚焦于食品和营养。
在最近的国会听证会上，他也将重点放在了选民支持率较高的议题上。在众议院筹款委员会作证时，肯尼迪的开场陈述聚焦于医疗负担能力和药品价格——这是他上任头几个月一直回避的议题。
尽管他提到了自己重新制定营养指南以及敦促行业停止使用某些食品染料，但他避开了上任头几个月引发争议的话题，包括他试图颠覆儿童疫苗接种计划以及探索自闭症病因的努力。
尽管他转向了更受欢迎的议题，但肯尼迪的支持基础已经超出了MAHA圈子之外出现了削弱。3月对超过1600名年度保守派政治行动会议参会者进行的一项模拟投票发现，当被问及如果今天举行选举会投票给谁时，几乎没有人支持他作为总统候选人。
“他有一个非常依附于MAHA的选民群体，这个群体可能不会在共和党初选或大选中投票，”哈佛大学健康政策与政治分析荣誉教授罗伯特·布伦登说道。
肯尼迪曾以民主党人身份参加2024年总统竞选，之后又以独立候选人身份参选，最终在2024年8月暂停竞选并转而支持特朗普。
总统的一些顾问认为，肯尼迪的MAHA选民群体恰好起到了关键作用，帮助特朗普赢得了2024年大选。根据Politico4月的一项民调，约三分之一的美国选民自认为是MAHA支持者，其中支持特朗普“让美国再次伟大”政治运动的共和党人支持率最高。
疫苗政策正在激化双方选民的立场。KFF健康新闻4月进行的一项民调显示，81%的选民表示，疫苗政策——包括儿童推荐疫苗的决策——将影响他们在2026年中期选举中的投票决定。民调还显示，选民认为民主党人在疫苗政策和其他健康问题上比共和党人更值得信任。
但医疗保健——尤其是其成本——是一个更重要的议题。64%的选民表示他们非常或有些担心医疗保健问题，包括健康保险成本以及门诊就诊和处方药等自付费用，88%的选民表示这些费用将影响他们的投票。
许多MAHA的忠实支持者怀疑他们的政治影响力是否真的重要。
共和党人似乎并不确信这个选民群体将决定中期选举的结果。
“共和党国会和政府已经决定在中期选举中不以MAHA为竞选纲领，”科学家、肯尼迪盟友罗伯特·马隆于4月16日在X平台上说道，他于3月辞去了联邦免疫实践咨询委员会的职务。
KFF健康新闻是一家致力于健康问题深度报道的全国性新闻机构，也是KFF的核心运营项目之一——KFF是独立的健康政策研究、民调与新闻资讯来源。
RFK Jr. says he won’t run for president in 2028
May 15, 2026 / 5:00 AM EDT / KFF Health News
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is caught between his Make America Healthy Again supporters who want him to do more to advance their priorities, including curtailing vaccines, and a White House trying to combat President Trump’s unpopularity.
Protesters’ chants could be heard from inside the Cleveland City Club, where Kennedy was speaking to a bipartisan group of citizens as part of his recent tour of northern Ohio. His calls for parents to have more “choice” on vaccinating their children was met with applause from half of the room. The other half released exasperated sighs and gasps.
His travel schedule is about to get busier: Kennedy is expected to stump for GOP lawmakers, traveling to states with competitive races in the upcoming midterm elections.
The goal of Kennedy’s campaign appearances is to shore up support for Republican candidates. But his targeted presence underscores the increasingly intense push and pull Kennedy faces as he works to maintain enduring political viability with GOP voters — especially MAHA supporters.
His challenge is complicated by a widening schism between the White House and Kennedy’s anti-vaccine crusade. Some MAHA adherents feel betrayed by the Trump administration, which they say is thwarting the movement’s agenda by not doing more to limit pesticides, halt access to COVID shots, or investigate conspiracy theories about airplane contrails poisoning the skies.
Meanwhile, some in the MAHA camp hope Kennedy will announce his own run for the White House in 2028.
But Kennedy says he has no such aspirations. Asked by KFF Health News on May 7 whether he sees a path to run for the presidency again as a Republican, he replied firmly: “No, I’m not going to run.”
Changing his position about running would put Kennedy on a collision course with President Trump, who’s reportedly weighing Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance as possible successors. (President Trump, too, has mused about running again in 2028, though the 22nd Amendment would prohibit it.) A Kennedy candidacy could also sap much of the Trump administration’s work on other MAHA causes, because the secretary would likely leave his role at the Department of Health and Human Services.
Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks during a news conference in Washington, D.C., on April 16, 2025. Alex Wong / Getty Images
“If he isn’t secretary, then MAHA’s influence will severely diminish,” said David Mansdoerfer, who served as deputy assistant secretary for health at HHS in the first Trump administration.
“Running would be perfectly logical for Bobby,” said Christopher Bosso, a public policy and political science professor at Northeastern University. “Kennedy is being a good soldier, but to what extent? That is going to be a question.”
“A grave misstep”
Recent Trump administration actions have riled up MAHA supporters. The president in April nominated Erica Schwartz, a doctor and vaccine supporter, to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Kennedy fired Susan Monarez, the agency’s previous director; she testified she was ousted for not preapproving vaccine recommendations.
Schwartz’s nomination and White House efforts to shift Kennedy’s focus away from vaccines stand in stark contrast with 2024, when Mr. Trump pledged to let Kennedy “go wild” on health.
In an interview, Kennedy said “I think I have” gone wild on health. He shot down claims that the White House has limited his work.
“President Trump has let me do more than any HHS secretary in history,” Kennedy said.
Kennedy has said he supports Schwartz, though he told lawmakers last month that he did not discuss her nomination with Mr. Trump. MAHA adherents have criticized her backing of covid vaccines, holding it up as evidence that the White House is restricting the health secretary.
“Trump’s pick to head the CDC, Erica Schwartz, would likely be a disaster,” Aaron Siri, a lawyer and Kennedy ally, said on X, citing her work supporting the covid vaccine rollout.
Mr. Trump also withdrew the nomination of wellness influencer Casey Means, another Kennedy ally, for U.S. surgeon general. In May, the president nominated Nicole Saphier, a radiologist and former Fox News contributor. MAHA adherents have panned the selection, which reflects a more mainstream and traditional medical approach to the position. Means had faced pushback from some Republican senators for questioning contraception methods and refusing to reject the debunked link between vaccines and autism.
“DOGE the Surgeon General!!! We want medical freedom!!!! If not Casey – we take no one!” Vani Hari, a MAHA influencer, said May 1 on X.
Taken together, these actions threaten to weaken MAHA support for GOP candidates. But many Republicans in competitive races are already distancing themselves from the grassroots, vaccine-skeptical “medical freedom” movement led by Kennedy.
Many MAHA supporters also feel let down by Trump administration directives that rolled back environmental regulations and promoted pesticides. Some now see a Kennedy presidency as critical to attaining their policy goals.
Stephanie Weidle “100%” wants to see Kennedy run again. The 34-year-old Washington, D.C., resident was outside the Supreme Court last month during a rally to oppose protections for the weed-killing chemical glyphosate.
A reliable Republican voter, Weidle described the administration’s actions as disappointing. She wants to see Kennedy go further on examining the childhood vaccine schedule and limiting chemical use on crops.
“His hands have been tied,” Weidle said of Kennedy. She believes the White House has ordered him to back down from those controversial issues. “Republicans have made a grave misstep in not leading with MAHA.”
Vaccines are a flashpoint
In the midst of these dynamics, Kennedy is attempting to thread the needle between the White House, which wants him to back away from attacking vaccines, and MAHA supporters who want him to do more. He has sought to appease both sides, praising Saphier as the surgeon general pick and describing her on X as a “long-time warrior for the MAHA movement.”
He’s also tempered his public focus on vaccines. His podcast, which he said would “confront the lies” that lead to illness, has veered away from the topic and centered instead on food and nutrition.
During his recent congressional hearings, he also focused on initiatives that poll well with voters. Appearing before the House Ways and Means Committee, Kennedy offered an opening statement focused on healthcare affordability and drug prices, issues he had shied away from during his first few months on the job.
While he mentioned his redesign of nutritional guidelines and pressing industry to cease its use of certain food dyes, he avoided more controversial topics that underscored his first few months in office, including his attempt to upend the childhood vaccine schedule and efforts to explore causes of autism.
Despite his pivot to more popular subjects, Kennedy’s draw weakens beyond MAHA circles. A March straw poll of more than 1,600 attendees at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference found nearly zero support for him as a presidential candidate when participants were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today.
“He has a constituency that is very much attached to MAHA that may not vote in the Republican primaries or in a general election,” said Robert Blendon, professor emeritus of health policy and political analysis at Harvard University.
Kennedy ran for president in the 2024 race as a Democrat, and then as an independent, before halting his campaign in August 2024 and throwing his support behind Mr. Trump.
Some of the president’s advisers credit Kennedy’s MAHA voters with tipping the scales just enough to help Mr. Trump secure his 2024 election win. About a third of U.S. voters now identify as MAHA supporters, according to a March poll by Politico, and support is highest among Republicans who also back Trump’s Make America Great Again political movement.
Vaccine policy is galvanizing voters on both sides. Eighty-one percent of voters said vaccine policy, including decisions about what vaccines are recommended for children, will have an impact on their decision to vote in the 2026 midterm elections, according to a KFF Health News poll conducted in April. Voters said they trust Democrats more than Republicans on vaccine policy and other health issues, according to the poll.
But healthcare — especially its costs — looms larger as an issue. Sixty-four percent of voters said that they are very or somewhat worried about healthcare, including the cost of health insurance and out-of-pocket costs for things like office visits and prescription drugs, and 88% said such costs will have an impact on their vote.
Many of the MAHA faithful question whether their political muscle really matters.
Republicans seem less convinced the constituency will make or break the midterm election results.
Republicans in Congress and the administration “have decided not to run on MAHA for the midterms,” Robert Malone, a scientist and Kennedy ally who stepped away in March from his position on the federal Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, said April 16 on X.
KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF — the independent source for health policy research, polling, and journalism.
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