2026-05-14T04:00:52.457Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
扎卡里·B·沃尔夫分析
3小时前
发布于2026年5月14日，美国东部时间凌晨0点
莫尔塔扎·尼库巴兹勒/NURPHO/美联社
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特朗普政府就伊朗战争的核心论调之一是，在4月停火开始前，美国与以色列发动的空袭行动已摧毁了伊朗伊斯兰共和国的军事能力。
但未公开的情报报告显示，伊朗的军事能力——尤其是其导弹能力——并未像美国对外宣称的那样遭到重创。
特朗普在周二暗示，报道这些情报评估的事实是“近乎叛国”的行为。
情报部门关于伊朗导弹的说法
今年4月初，美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）报道了一份情报评估，称伊朗保留了其无人机能力的很大一部分，以及其沿海导弹系统的大部分。
该情报评估与特朗普当周对全国发表的言论相矛盾，当时他对伊朗做出了如此明确的评估：
特朗普： 他们发射导弹和无人机的能力已大幅受限，他们的武器工厂和火箭发射器也已被炸成碎片。几乎所剩无几。在战争历史上，从未有任何敌人能在数周内遭受如此明确且毁灭性的大规模损失。我们的敌人正在溃败。
在随后的六周里，据CNN本月的报道，伊朗利用停火机会，挖出了可能在之前的空袭中被掩埋的发射器。
这也解释了为何伊朗能如此有效地封锁霍尔木兹海峡，并如此有力地挤压全球能源供应。
与此同时，特朗普一直用“重创”等词汇形容伊朗的军事能力，并辩称如果美国愿意，明天就能结束这场战争。
据熟悉该情报的消息人士透露，CNN报道中援引的情报还显示，在当前美国对伊朗港口实施封锁的情况下，伊朗最多可以支撑四个月而不会彻底引发国内经济动荡。
本周，《纽约时报》报道了一份美国情报评估，称伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡沿岸的33个导弹基地中，除3个外，其余全部“可正常运作”。
“近乎叛国”
虽然特朗普没有专门提及《纽约时报》的这篇报道，但在该报道发布后，他在社交媒体上发文猛烈抨击：
当假新闻声称伊朗敌人在军事上对我们表现良好时，这就是近乎叛国的行为，因为这种说法如此虚假，甚至荒谬至极。他们是在帮助和教唆敌人！这只会让伊朗本不该存在的幻想成真。这些美国懦夫是在诅咒我们的国家。伊朗曾有159艘舰艇——现在每一艘都沉在了海底。他们没有海军，空军也荡然无存，所有技术都已消失，他们的“领导人”也已不在人世，这个国家的经济更是一团糟。只有失败者、忘恩负义之徒和傻瓜才会做出不利于美国的指控！唐纳德·J·特朗普总统
请注意，他在帖子中并未提及伊朗无法使用海峡沿岸的导弹基地。
相关事实属于机密
美国参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军在周二的参议院听证会上被直接问及，《纽约时报》的报道是否与特朗普此前所称的伊朗80%的导弹能力已被摧毁的说法相矛盾。
这位美国最高将领礼貌地拒绝证实或否认总统的说法。
“我们所有的战场损伤评估事宜都属于机密，我在这个场合就此发表评论是不合适的，”凯恩说。“我感谢这个问题，但我不会回答。”
美国国防部长皮特·赫格斯也发表了类似言论。
“我为什么要证实人们可能泄露或不泄露的信息？”他说。“我们不会谈论这些事情。”
然而，早在4月的五角大楼，赫格斯就曾就伊朗的导弹能力做出过大胆断言。
赫格斯： 他们的导弹项目实际上已被摧毁，发射器、生产设施和现有库存都已耗尽并遭到重创，几乎完全失效。
政府闭门会议上的说法有何不同？
本周，民主党参议员克里斯·墨菲暗示，政府在机密场合对伊朗军事能力的说法与公开场合有所不同。在周二的听证会上，墨菲要求赫格斯证实，美国几乎没有任何军事手段能够打开霍尔木兹海峡，赫格斯对此予以否认。
“我们当然有军事手段可以打开海峡，无论是针对陆地目标，还是我们利用海军能力所能做到的，更不用说我们的海上封锁了，”赫格斯说。
墨菲反驳道：“这和我们在私人简报会上听到的说法不一样”，并质疑如果有军事选择，政府为何不采取行动。
赫格斯表示，政府更倾向于达成一项长期协议，允许世界各地的贸易通过海峡通行，这确实合乎情理。
部分战前情报曾精准应验
但值得在此指出的是，霍尔木兹海峡目前之所以被封锁，完全是因为伊朗对空袭实施报复，动用了其可支配的影响力。而这本不该让美国感到意外，因为这是军事作战计划中包含的一种合乎逻辑的情景。
同样不应让人感到意外的是，战争初期暗杀伊朗最高领导人并不会推翻该政权。据CNN1月战争爆发前的报道，这也是特朗普发动战争前美国情报评估中纳入的情景之一。
退役海军上将詹姆斯·斯塔夫里迪斯赞扬了美国情报界的工作，即便其传递的消息并不受欢迎。
“如果这些报道准确无误，那么这正是你希望情报机构所做的工作，”这位前北约最高盟军指挥官周三在CNN节目中表示。
更大规模的歪曲模式
特朗普政府经常为推进其议程而使用夸张或夸大的言辞。
这不仅仅是大规模驱逐行动中波及了顽固罪犯。
削减开支的目标也不仅仅是觉醒意识形态和欺诈行为。
没有证据显示非公民在美国选举中实施了大规模欺诈行为。
而白宫在伊朗战争问题上的部分论调，似乎也符合这一模式。
What Trump says vs. what the intelligence says on Iran
2026-05-14T04:00:52.457Z / CNN
Analysis by Zachary B. Wolf
3 hr ago
PUBLISHED May 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Two Iran-made ballistic missiles are displayed during a rally commemorating the 47th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution’s victory in Freedom Square in western Tehran, Iran, on February 11.
Morteza Nikoubazl/NURPHO/Associated Press
A version of this story appeared in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here.
One of the Trump administration’s key talking points on the Iran war is that the Islamic Republic’s military capabilities were devastated in US-Israeli bombing campaigns before the ceasefire began in April.
But intelligence reports that have not been made public suggest Iran’s military — in particular its missile capabilities — is not quite as destroyed as the US has made it out to be.
Reporting the fact of those intelligence assessments, Trump suggested Tuesday, is “virtual TREASON.”
What the intelligence says about Iran’s missiles
In early April, CNN reported on an intelligence assessment that said Iran maintained a significant portion of its drone capability and a large percentage of its coastal missile systems.
The intelligence assessment contradicted Trump’s argument in remarks to the nation that same week, when he offered this definitive assessment of Iran:
TRUMP:Their ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed, and their weapons factories and rocket launchers are being blown to pieces. Very few of them left. Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such a clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks. Our enemies are losing.
In the intervening six weeks, Iran has utilized the ceasefire to dig out launchers that might have been buried in previous strikes, according to CNN’s report from this month.
This helps explain why Iran has so effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz and squeezed the worldwide energy supply so effectively.
All this while, Trump has used words like “decimated” to refer to Iran’s capabilities and to argue the US could end the war tomorrow if it wanted to.
The intelligence cited in CNN’s report also suggests that Iran can last for up to four months of the current US blockade of its ports without completely destabilizing its economy, according to sources familiar with the intelligence.
This week The New York Times reported on a US intelligence assessment that Iran has “operational access” to all but three of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz.
‘Virtual TREASON’
While Trump did not specifically cite the Times article, he did lash out in a social media post after it was published:
When the Fake News says that the Iranian enemy is doing well, Militarily, against us, it’s virtual TREASON in that it is such a false, and even preposterous, statement. They are aiding and abetting the enemy! All it does is give Iran false hope when none should exist. These are American cowards that are rooting against our Country. Iran had 159 ships in their Navy — Every single ship is now resting at the bottom of the sea. They have no Navy, their Air Force is gone, all Technology is gone, their “leaders” are no longer with us, and the Country is an Economic Disaster. Only Losers, Ingrates, and Fools are able to make a case against America! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Note he did not say in the post that Iran does not have access to its missile sites along the strait.
The facts are classified
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine was directly asked during a Senate hearing Tuesday whether the Times report contradicted Trump’s previous claim that 80% of Iran’s missile capability has been destroyed.
The nation’s top general respectfully declined to confirm or deny the president’s claim.
“All of our battle damage assessment matters are classified and it would be inappropriate for me to comment in this forum on that,” Caine said. “I appreciate the question, but I’m not going to answer it.”
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said something similar.
“Why would I validate what people may leak or not leak?” he said. “We don’t talk about those things.”
Back in April at the Pentagon, however, Hegseth made a bold claim about Iran’s missile capability.
HEGSETH: Their missile program is functionally destroyed, launchers, production facilities and existing stockpiles depleted and decimated and almost completely ineffective.
What is the administration saying behind closed doors?
This week, Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy suggested the administration says different things about Iran’s capabilities in classified settings than it does in public. During the hearing Tuesday Murphy asked Hegseth to confirm there are essentially no military means by which the US can open the Strait of Hormuz, something Hegseth denied.
“There most certainly are military means by which we could open the strait, both targets on land and also with what we do with our naval capabilities, not to mention our naval blockade,” Hegseth said.
Murphy countered, “That’s not what has been testified to us in private briefings” and wondered why, if there are military options, the administration hasn’t pursued them.
Hegseth said the preference is for a longer-term deal that allows for trade from all over the world to flow through the strait, which does make sense.
Some pre-war intelligence was on target
But it’s worth noting here that the only reason the strait is currently closed is that Iran retaliated to being bombed by exerting the leverage that was available to it, which should not have been a surprise to the US since it was a logical scenario included in military war planning.
Nor should it have been surprising that assassinating Iran’s supreme leader at the beginning of the war would not topple the regime. That was also within US intelligence assessments presented to Trump before he decided to launch the war, according to CNN’s reporting in January, before the war.
Retired Adm. James Stavridis praised the US intelligence community for its work even if the message it delivers is unwelcome news.
“If these reports are accurate, this is what you want your intelligence agencies to do,” Stavridis, a former NATO supreme allied commander, said on CNN Wednesday.
A larger pattern of distortion
The Trump administration has often used hyperbole or exaggeration in efforts to advance its agenda.
It is not just hardened criminals being swept up in the mass deportation effort.
It is not just woke ideology and fraud being targeted with spending cuts.
There is no evidence of widespread fraud perpetrated by noncitizens in US elections.
And some White House arguments about the war in Iran seem to fit within this pattern.
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