2026年5月9日 美国东部时间10:13 / 福克斯新闻
一名退役陆军军官警告称，双方的信任起点均为“负1000”，令谈判进程极度脆弱
作者：摩根·菲利普斯 福克斯新闻
发布于2026年5月9日上午10:13 美国东部时间
如果与伊朗的谈判破裂，美国可能会迅速采取行动削弱德黑兰的军事能力——分析人士称，这场行动将先从导弹系统、海军资产和指挥网络入手，随后升级至更具争议性的目标。
谈判代表仍在努力达成官员们所说的初步框架协议——实质上是一份一页纸的起点文件，用以启动围绕伊朗核计划和潜在制裁解除的更广泛会谈。但双方之间根深蒂固的不信任令谈判进程十分脆弱，一旦外交失败，风险将大幅上升。
“我们不是从零开始，”曾任联合参谋部规划人员、现任全球保卫公司副总裁的退役陆军上校赛斯·克鲁姆里奇告诉福克斯新闻数字频道。“双方的信任起点都是负1000，因为双方根本互不信任。未来的谈判进程会相当艰难。”
这种紧张态势在周四显露无遗：一名美国高级官员证实，美军袭击了伊朗的格什姆港和阿巴斯港——霍尔木兹海峡附近的关键地点，同时坚称此次行动并未标志着战争重启或停火结束。
此次对伊朗某石油港口的袭击发生在伊朗向阿联酋富查伊拉港发射15枚弹道和巡航导弹两天后，引发了海湾盟友的愤怒。美国国防部长皮特·赫格斯瑟和参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩本周早些时候表示，此次袭击尚未达到破坏停火的程度，称其为低级别打击。
唐纳德·特朗普总统曾多次警告，如果谈判破裂，美国可能恢复对伊朗的轰炸——甚至在最近的停火协议生效前就暗示，华盛顿可能将伊朗的能源基础设施和关键经济资产作为打击目标。但任何升级都可能分阶段进行，首先会致力于削弱伊朗在该地区投射兵力的能力，随后再扩大到更具争议性的目标。
唐纳德·特朗普总统曾多次警告，如果谈判破裂，美国可能恢复对伊朗的轰炸。(亚伦·施瓦茨/CNP/彭博社 via 盖蒂图片社)
退役空军中将戴维·德普图拉表示，如果谈判破裂，任何重启的冲突都可能成为一场“升级控制竞赛”：伊朗会寻求在不招致威胁政权生存的报复的情况下施加代价，而美国则会努力剥夺德黑兰仅剩的谈判筹码。
“进入视野的将是伊朗用于施加胁迫性影响力的能力：弹道导弹、巡航导弹、防空系统、海上打击资产、指挥与控制网络、伊斯兰革命卫队基础设施、代理支持渠道以及与核相关的设施，”他在提及伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队时说道。
“军事目标将不再侧重于惩罚，而是更多地在于剥夺伊朗用于升级的工具，”他说。
“特朗普总统握有所有筹码，他明智地保留所有选项，以确保伊朗永远无法拥有核武器，”白宫发言人奥利维亚·威尔士告诉福克斯新闻数字频道。记者未能立即联系到五角基金会置评。
早期的打击目标可能是伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的快速攻击艇舰队——这是德黑兰威胁全球航运的核心能力之一，而霍尔木兹海峡是全球最重要的能源通道之一。
军事与恐怖主义分析师、海军陆战队退伍军人RP·纽曼表示，在之前的袭击中保留该舰队的大部分战力是一个错误。
伊朗剩余武器：德黑兰仍可如何扰乱霍尔木兹海峡
“我们炸毁了其中6艘，”他说。“他们还剩大约400艘。”
这种小型快速艇是伊朗非对称海上战略的关键组成部分，能够袭扰商业油轮和美国海军部队——在任何重启的军事行动中，它们都可能迅速成为优先打击目标。
伊朗的核心军事结构大部分也完好无损。
伊朗军方内部：导弹、民兵与一支旨在生存的武装力量
纽曼称“我们只杀死了不到1%的伊斯兰革命卫队官兵”，仍有大量兵力能够执行作战任务。他估计该组织“兵力在15万至19万之间”。
但打击伊斯兰革命卫队远比清除高级领导层复杂得多。
“他们不是只有顶层几个领导人，你杀了他们就能解决问题，”克鲁姆里奇说。“经过47年的发展，这种影响力已经渗透到各个层级。”
一名挖掘机正在清理德黑兰一处袭击现场的瓦砾，据现场一名安全官员透露，此次袭击摧毁了呼拉萨尼哈犹太会堂一半的建筑及附近的居民楼，拍摄于2026年4月7日。(弗朗西斯科·塞科/美联社)
退役海军少将马克·蒙哥马利是国防民主基金会政策研究所的高级研究员，他表示，美国可能会在扩大军事行动之前继续加大经济施压力度，主张美国应“至少再施压三到六周”，再考虑采取更激进的升级措施。
“你本可以把哈尔克岛炸得粉碎，”克鲁姆里奇在谈及伊朗位于波斯湾的主要石油出口终端时说道。“但策划者的想法是，不——我们可以实施海上封锁。效果是一样的。”
伊朗仍在通过隐蔽航运网络和船对船转运运输原油，油轮追踪数据显示，近几周仍有数百万桶原油运往各市场。
据《华盛顿邮报》的一篇报道，美国中央情报局的一份分析报告发现，伊朗可能能够在面临更严重经济压力之前，再维持三到四个月的此类运作。
问题在于，如果最初的施压未能迫使伊朗做出让步，美国的军事行动可能会扩大到何种程度。
特朗普已暗示愿意采取更严厉的行动，在停火协议生效前就警告称，如果无法达成协议，美国可能“彻底摧毁”伊朗的发电厂、石油基础设施以及哈尔克岛等关键出口枢纽。
针对伊朗领导层、伊斯兰革命卫队、伊朗海军舰艇和石油基础设施的打击已引发市场动荡。(萨桑/中东图片社/法新社 via 盖蒂图片社)
“你一开始不能这么做，”蒙哥马利说道，他将针对两用基础设施的打击描述为取决于伊朗反应的有条件步骤。
针对两用基础设施的打击会面临重大的法律和行动挑战。
“我的目标上站着500人。你不能那么打，”纽曼说。
此类决定会带来政治和法律风险，考虑到国际社会的密切监督，这种风险尤为突出。
扩大基础设施打击范围还可能在长期引发不稳定，如果伊朗走向内部崩溃的话。
“短期来看或许有帮助，但从长期来看，我们所有人都将不得不应对后果，”克鲁姆里奇说。“一旦你按下那个按钮，你基本上就是在把伊朗推得离深渊边缘更近。”
国家政权的崩溃可能会在霍尔木兹海峡地区造成失败国家的局面，武装团体、无人机和导弹在这个全球战略意义最重大的水道之一上横行无忌。
即使是讨论最多的军事选项——比如收缴伊朗的高浓缩铀——执行起来也会极其困难。
“这比听起来要难得多，”蒙哥马利说。
此类任务可能需要数月时间，除了需要数千名美军操作员提供持续空中掩护外，还需要工程师、技术人员和重型挖掘设备。
“当你把所有这些因素叠加起来，就会变得耗费资源且风险极高——甚至不是高风险，而是极高风险，”克鲁姆里奇说。
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Inside the US military playbook to cripple Iran if nuclear talks collapse
2026-05-09 10:13 EDT / Fox News
A retired Army officer warns both sides start ‘at minus 1,000’ in trust, making the process extremely fragile
By Morgan Phillips Fox News
Published May 9, 2026 10:13am EDT
If negotiations with Iran collapse, the U.S. likely is to move quickly to degrade Tehran’s military capabilities — a campaign analysts say would begin with missile systems, naval assets and command networks before escalating to more controversial targets.
Negotiators are still working toward what officials describe as a preliminary framework agreement — effectively a one-page starting point for broader talks centered on Iran’s nuclear program and potential sanctions relief. But deep mistrust on both sides has left the process fragile, raising the stakes if diplomacy fails.
“We’re not starting at zero,” retired Army Col. Seth Krummrich, a former Joint Staff planner and current Vice President at Global Guardian, told Fox News Digital. “We’re both starting at minus 1,000 because neither side trusts each other at all. This is going to be a pretty hard process going forward.”
That tension was on display Thursday, when a senior U.S. official confirmed American forces struck Iran’s Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas — key locations near the Strait of Hormuz — while insisting the operation did not mark a restart of the war or the end of the ceasefire.
The strike on one of Iran’s oil ports came two days after Iran launched 15 ballistic and cruise missiles at the UAE’s Fujairah Port, drawing anger from Gulf allies. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said earlier this week the attack did not rise to the level of breaking the ceasefire, describing it as a low-level strike.
President Donald Trump repeatedly has warned that if negotiations collapse, the U.S. could resume bombing Iran — even signaling before the recent ceasefire was implemented that Washington could target the country’s energy infrastructure and key economic assets. But any escalation would likely unfold in phases, beginning with efforts to dismantle Iran’s ability to project force across the region before expanding to more controversial targets.
President Donald Trump has warned repeatedly that if negotiations collapse, the U.S. could resume bombing Iran.(Aaron Schwartz/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
If talks break down, any renewed conflict would likely become a “contest for escalation control,” where Iran seeks to impose costs without provoking regime-threatening retaliation while the U.S. works to strip away Tehran’s remaining leverage, according to retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula.
“The capabilities that would come into focus are the ones Iran uses to generate coercive leverage: ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, air defense systems, maritime strike assets, command-and-control networks, IRGC infrastructure, proxy support channels, and nuclear-related facilities,” he said, referring to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“The military objective would be less about punishment and more about denying Iran the tools it uses to escalate,” he said.
“President Trump has all the cards, and he wisely keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon,” White House spokesperson Olivia Wales told Fox News Digital. The Pentagon could not immediately be reached for comment.
One early focus could be Iran’s fleet of fast attack boats in the Strait of Hormuz — a central component of Tehran’s ability to threaten global shipping in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
RP Newman, a military and terrorism analyst and Marine Corp veteran, said leaving much of that fleet intact during earlier strikes was a mistake.
IRAN’S REMAINING WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN STILL DISRUPT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
“We’ve blown up six of them,” he said. “They’ve got about 400 left.”
The small, fast-moving boats are a key part of Iran’s asymmetric maritime strategy, capable of harassing commercial tankers and U.S. naval forces — and could quickly become a priority target in any renewed campaign.
Much of Iran’s core military structure also remains intact.
INSIDE IRAN’S MILITARY: MISSILES, MILITIAS AND A FORCE BUILT FOR SURVIVAL
Newman said “we’ve only killed less than one percent of IRGC troops,” leaving a large portion of the force still capable of carrying out operations. He estimated the group “numbers between 150 and 190,000.”
But targeting the IRGC is far more complex than eliminating senior leadership.
“They’re not just a group of leaders at the top that you can kill away,” Krummrich said. “Over 47 years it’s percolated down to every level.”
An excavator removes rubble at the site of a strike that destroyed half of the Khorasaniha Synagogue and nearby residential buildings in Tehran, Iran, on April 7, 2026, according to a security official at the scene.(Francisco Seco/AP)
Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies policy institute, said Washington may continue tightening economic pressure before broadening military action, arguing the U.S. should “squeeze them for at least another three to six weeks” before considering more aggressive escalation.
“You could have blown Kharg Island back to smithereens,” Krummrich said, referring to Iran’s primary oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf. “But what the planner said was, no — what we can do is a maritime blockade. It will have the same effect.”
Iran has continued moving crude through covert shipping networks and ship-to-ship transfers, with tanker trackers reporting millions of barrels still reaching markets in recent weeks.
A CIA analysis found Iran may be able to sustain those pressures for another three to four months before facing more severe economic strain, according to a report by The Washington Post.
The question is how far a U.S. campaign could expand if initial pressure fails to force concessions.
Trump has signaled a willingness to go further, warning before the ceasefire that the U.S. could “completely obliterate” Iran’s electric generating plants, oil infrastructure and key export hubs such as Kharg Island if a deal is not reached.
Strikes on the Iranian leadership, the IRGC, and Iranian naval vessels and oil infrastructure have roiled the markets.(Sasan / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)
“You don’t do that at first,” Montgomery said, describing strikes on dual-use infrastructure as a conditional step dependent on Iran’s response.
Targeting dual-use infrastructure presents significant legal and operational challenges.
“I’ve got 500 people standing on my target. You can’t hit that,” Newman said.
Such decisions carry political and legal risks, particularly given the likelihood of international scrutiny.
Broader infrastructure strikes also could create long-term instability if they push Iran toward internal collapse.
“In the short term, it might help. But in the long term, we’re all going to have to deal with it,” Krummrich said. “Once you pull that lever, you’re basically pushing Iran closer to the edge of the abyss.”
A collapse of state authority could create a failed-state scenario across the Strait of Hormuz, with armed groups, drones and missiles operating unchecked in one of the world’s most strategically important waterways.
Even some of the most discussed military options — such as seizing Iran’s highly enriched uranium — would be extremely difficult to execute.
“That’s much harder than it sounds,” said Montgomery.
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Such a mission would likely take months, and require engineers, technicians and heavy excavation equipment, in addition to thousands of U.S. operators providing continuous air coverage.
“When you start to stack that up, that becomes resource intensive and high risk — not even high, extreme risk,” said Krummrich.
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