2026-04-29 10:04:52 UTC / 路透社
作者：霍华德·施奈德
2026年4月29日 美国东部时间上午10:04 UTC 更新于16分钟前
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[1/2] 2018年8月22日拍摄的美国华盛顿联邦储备委员会大楼。路透社/克里斯·沃蒂/资料图片
- 内容摘要
- 美联储官员权衡高油价带来的经济影响
- 沃什料将获参议院确认出任下任美联储主席
- 鲍威尔或谈及是否计划继续担任美联储理事
路透社华盛顿4月29日电 — 美联储预计将于周三维持利率不变，官员们正在辩论是否要在政策声明中提及通胀上升风险，这可能是杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美国央行行长以来的最后一次会议。
由于美国牵头对伊朗发动战争，油价居高不下且持续上涨，美联储最新两天政策会议召开前的决策者们表示，他们越来越担忧高企的能源成本可能从一次性冲击演变为更高的潜在通胀，利率需要比预期更长时间维持不变，极端情况下甚至可能上调。
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谈判陷入僵局以及霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭，推动全球基准油价再次突破每桶110美元，而2月28日美以对伊朗发动空袭行动前，油价约为每桶70美元。美联储青睐的通胀指标较央行2%的目标高出约1个百分点，本周晚些时候将公布的3月数据预计还会进一步走高。
交易员认为美联储在明年年中前降息的可能性微乎其微，这实际上是押注新任美联储主席凯文·沃什无法说服同僚，认为美国生产率的提升将转化为通胀下降，并允许实施更宽松的货币政策。
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摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利表示：“自3月上次会议以来的消息——劳动力市场数据向好，但令人失望的高通胀数据并未改变——可能会让讨论略微偏向鹰派，但不至于让美联储在声明中暗示可能需要加息。”3月出人意料的强劲就业增长推低失业率至4.3%。
鲍威尔时代即将落幕
美联储的利率决议和新的政策声明将于美国东部时间下午2点（格林尼治标准时间18点）公布。鲍威尔定于半小时后举行新闻发布会。
除了详细说明会议结果并回答有关经济前景的问题外，鉴于沃什料将在6月16日至17日的美联储会议前获得参议院确认出任央行行长，鲍威尔可能会进一步透露他的未来计划。
上周，美国司法部撤销了对一项美联储基建项目的刑事调查，共和党参议员认为这是对鲍威尔和央行独立性的无端攻击，沃什的提名由此得以推进。参议院银行委员会定于周三投票，建议由整体由共和党掌控的参议院确认沃什出任美联储主席。
鲍威尔的美联储行长任期将于5月15日结束，但他作为美联储华盛顿理事会成员的单独任期将延续至2028年1月。
在3月的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔表示他不会“在调查完全结束前”离开理事会，但并未排除即便调查结束，他仍可能继续担任理事的可能性。
“我还没有做出这个决定。我将基于对该机构和我们服务的民众最有利的原则做出决定，”鲍威尔当时说道。
霍华德·施奈德报道；保罗·西芒奥编辑
我们的标准：路透社汤姆森路透信托原则。
Fed likely to hold rates steady at what may be last meeting of Powell era
2026-04-29 10:04:52 UTC / Reuters
By Howard Schneider
April 29, 2026 10:04 AM UTC Updated 16 mins ago
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[1/2]The Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, DC, U.S., August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Chris Wattie/File Photo
- Summary
- Fed officials ponder economic fallout from high oil prices
- Warsh expected to be confirmed as next Fed chief by Senate
- Powell may address whether he plans to remain a Fed governor
WASHINGTON, April 29 (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday as officials debate whether to flag risks of rising inflation in a policy statement issued after what may be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as head of the U.S. central bank.
With oil prices high and rising again due to the U.S.-led war with Iran, policymakers ahead of the Fed’s latest two-day session said they were increasingly concerned that elevated energy costs could evolve from a one-off shock into higher underlying inflation, with interest rates needing to stay on hold longer than expected or, in the extreme, to move up.
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Stalemated negotiations and the continued closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz have pushed the global benchmark oil price again above $110 a barrel compared to about $70 before the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran started on February 28. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is about a percentage point above the central bank’s 2% target, and the March numbers due to be issued later this week are expected to rise even higher.
Traders see little chance the Fed will lower rates before the middle of next year, in effect a bet against incoming Fed leader Kevin Warsh’s ability to convince his colleagues that rising U.S. productivity will translate into lower inflation and allow for looser monetary policy.
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“The news since the last meeting in March – better labor market data but no change in disappointingly high inflation data – may shade the discussion a bit more hawkish,” but not so much that the Fed will hint at the possible need for rate hikes in its statement, said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan. Surprisingly strong job growth in March pushed the unemployment rate lower to 4.3%.
POWELL ERA COMING TO AN END
The Fed’s interest rate decision and new policy statement will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). Powell is scheduled to hold a press conference half an hour later.
Along with elaborating on the results of the meeting and answering questions about the economic outlook, Powell may well say more about his plans now that Warsh is expected to be confirmed as Fed chief by the Senate in time for the central bank’s June 16-17 meeting.
Warsh’s nomination began moving forward last week after the U.S. Department of Justice dropped a criminal investigation into a Fed building project that key Republican senators saw as a groundless attack on Powell and the central bank’s independence. The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote on Wednesday to recommend Warsh be confirmed by the full Republican-controlled Senate.
Powell’s tenure as Fed chief ends on May 15, but his separate term as a member of the central bank’s Washington-based Board of Governors extends to January of 2028.
At a press conference in March, Powell said he would not leave the board “until the investigation is well and truly over,” but left open whether he might continue serving as a governor even if the probe was ended.
“I have not made that decision yet. And I will make that decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve,” Powell said at the time.
Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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