2026-04-24T10:00:50.926Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
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亚伦·布莱克 撰写
2小时前发布
2026年4月24日美国东部时间上午6:00首次刊发
唐纳德·特朗普 选举民调
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唐纳德·特朗普总统周四在椭圆形办公室发表讲话。
马克·希费尔贝恩/美联社供图
本周，2026年中期选举迎来了一个熟悉的节点：总统所在政党试图将选举打造为一场“选择”而非“公投”。
美国有线电视新闻网的亚当·坎ryn报道称，白宫希望将选民的注意力集中在毫无吸引力的民主党对手身上，而非美国人对颇不受欢迎的唐纳德·特朗普总统的看法。
历届总统所在政党都曾在2022年、2018年、2014年、2010年和2006年等多场近期中期选举中采用过类似策略。
回顾历史，再加上特朗普当前的困境，这种策略更像是一种止损手段，而非获胜之道。
但至少有部分理由相信，打出差异化牌或许能在一定程度上为共和党减轻冲击。
该策略最近一次使用时似乎取得了成功：2022年中期选举中，时任总统乔·拜登及其所在政党试图将焦点转向共和党，当时新冠疫情引发高通胀。
尽管总统所在政党通常会在中期选举中失利，但民主党将损失降到了最低，创下了内战以来总统所在政党表现最佳的中期选举之一。他们实际上在参议院、州长和州议会席位争夺中实现了净增长。
或许最能说明问题的数据是：出口民调显示，“略有不满”拜登的10%选民——基本上就是选民群体中的中间派——仍以49%比45%的比例倾向民主党。
但那场选举被证明是个例外。上述提到的2006年至2018年其他四次中期选举中，政党都尝试过类似策略，但结果对总统所在政党而言都要糟糕得多。
事实上，中期选举几乎总是对白宫所在政党不利，原因在于美国人往往会投票反对现任总统所在的政党。
而民主党在2022年选举中拥有的几项有利因素，今年共和党并不具备。
其一，选民因最高法院推翻罗伊诉韦德案而动员起来进行抗议。其二，特朗普的基本盘在没有他参选的选举中投票率通常不会太高。其三，即便卸任，特朗普仍是一个无处不在的人物，这让民主党有了具体的攻击目标——几乎就像现任总统一样。
相比之下，共和党今年将难以找到一个单一的议题或人物来定义民主党，原因很简单：共和党目前几乎没有领导人。
共和党试图采用这种“差异化”策略，这一事实本身或许更能反映特朗普的政治困境，而非该策略的有效性。身为总统的特朗普已成为共和党日益沉重的负担——近期民调显示他的支持率跌至30%中期的罕见低位——其所在政党眼下所能做到的最好情况，就是说服选民民主党更糟糕。
但这并不意味着这类策略无法帮助共和党。
这是因为尽管特朗普极不受欢迎，但反对党在历史上也同样不得人心。民主党形象或许从2024年大选后的低迷中有所恢复，但恢复幅度有限。
民调显示，在国会“通用选票”（即无名共和党人与无名民主党人之间的对决）中，民主党领先优势并未达到历史基于特朗普的问题程度所应有的水平。多数民调显示民主党领先仅约中个位数，尚未达到“蓝色浪潮”的程度——至少目前还没有。
此外，当被问及哪个政党在一些关键议题上表现更出色时，民主党也难以击败共和党。
例如，尽管特朗普的移民政策显然已不受欢迎，但选民仍大幅倾向共和党而非民主党处理移民问题。
话虽如此，民主党形象的问题或许并不那么关键。即便在这些关键议题上，民主党也正出现好转迹象。
例如，福克斯新闻周三发布的民调显示，民主党在经济议题上的支持率首次超过共和党，这是16年来的首次。民主党在外交政策、国家安全和犯罪问题上的表现也比多年来更好——尽管他们在任何一项议题上都未占据大幅领先优势。
而特朗普的存在也是关键因素。无论白宫多么努力地将焦点转向民主党，这位总统都有能力让所有人的注意力都集中在他自己身上，即便局势并不顺利。
因此，那些试图将选举焦点从特朗普身上移开的人：祝你们好运。
The White House wants to focus 2026 on Democrats. That’ll be tough
2026-04-24T10:00:50.926Z / CNN
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
2 hr ago
PUBLISHED Apr 24, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
Donald Trump Election polls
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President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office on Thursday.
Mark Schiefelbein/AP
The 2026 midterm election reached a familiar juncture this week: the one where we learn the president’s party aims to make it a “choice” rather than a “referendum.”
CNN’s Adam Cancryn reports the White House wants to focus voters on the unattractive alternative that is the Democratic Party rather than on how Americans feel about the quite unpopular President Donald Trump.
Presidents’ parties have pursued a version of this strategy in 2022, 2018, 2014, 2010 and 2006, just to name a few recent midterms.
That history — and Trump’s current morass — suggest it’s a strategy of damage limitation rather than victory.
But there is at least some reason to believe setting up a contrast could potentially soften the blow for Republicans, a little.
The strategy seemed successful the most recent time it was used — in the 2022 midterms, when then-President Joe Biden and his party sought to turn the focus on Republicans amid high inflation from the Covid-19 pandemic.
While the president’s party often loses the midterms, Democrats minimized their losses and had one of the best midterms for a president’s party since the Civil War. They actually gained when it came to Senate, governor’s and state legislative seats.
Perhaps the most telling stat: Exit polls showed the 10% of voters who “somewhat disapproved” of Biden — basically those in the middle of the electorate — still tilted towards Democrats, 49%-45%.
But that election has very much proven the exception. The other four midterm years mentioned above where a version of this strategy was tried — from 2006 through 2018 — were all much worse for the president’s party.
Indeed, midterms are almost always bad for party in the White House for a reason: Americans tend to vote against the president’s party.
And Democrats had a few factors working in their favor in the 2022 election that don’t really exist for Republicans this year.
One was the voter-mobilizing backlash to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. Another was that Trump’s base doesn’t tend to turn out nearly as much in elections that don’t feature him. And the third is that Trump, even out of office, was such an ever-present figure that he gave Democrats something concrete to run against — almost like an incumbent president.
In contrast, Republicans this year will struggle to find a single issue or figure to try and define Democrats by, for the simple reason that the party is rather leader-less.
The fact that Republicans are trying this “choice” strategy probably says more about Trump’s political dire straits than its efficacy. With the president as an emerging albatross for the GOP — recent polls show his approval rating falling into rare territory, in the mid-30s — about the best his party can do is convince voters the other side is even worse.
But that doesn’t mean such a strategy can’t help the GOP.
That’s because while Trump is very unpopular, the opposition party is also historically unpopular. The Democratic brand might have recovered a little from its post-2024 funk, but not that much.
Polling has shown Democrats haven’t led by as much on the congressional “generic ballot” — a matchup between a nameless Republican and a nameless Democrat — as history suggests they perhaps should, given the degree of Trump’s problems. Most polls show Democrats lead by around the mid-single digits, which isn’t exactly “blue wave” territory — at least yet.
And Democrats have also struggled to beat Republicans when voters were asked which party was better on some key issues.
For instance, while Trump’s approach to immigration has clearly fallen out of favor, voters have still significantly favored Republicans over Democrats on that issue.
All of that being said, the Democratic brand problem may not matter that much. Even on some of these key issues, things appear to be looking up for the party.
A Fox News poll released Wednesday showed Democrats beating Republicans on the economy for the first time in 16 years, for example. Democrats also did better than they had in years against Republicans on foreign policy, national security and crime – even though they didn’t have big leads on any of them.
And then there’s Trump. No matter how much the White House tries to train the focus on Democrats, the president has a talent for keeping all eyes on him, even when things are not going well.
So to those that would make the election about anything other than him: Good luck with that.
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