2026-04-21T17:00:55.135Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：扎卡里·科恩、娜塔莎·伯特兰
更新于3小时前
更新时间：2026年4月21日美国东部时间下午1:02
发布时间：2026年4月21日美国东部时间下午1:00
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这张由美国中央司令部提供的视频画面显示，2026年2月28日，美国海军一艘舰艇发射导弹以支援“史诗怒火”行动。
美国中央司令部/美联社
据专家及三名熟悉美国国防部近期内部库存评估情况的消息人士透露，美军在与伊朗的战争中已大幅耗尽关键导弹储备，未来数年内若再爆发冲突，将面临“近期弹药耗尽风险”。
根据战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）开展的最新分析，在过去七周的战争中，美军至少消耗了45%的精确打击导弹库存、至少一半用于拦截弹道导弹的末段高空区域防御（THAAD）导弹储备，以及近50%的爱国者防空拦截导弹库存。据熟悉此次评估的消息人士透露，这些数据与五角大楼关于美国库存的机密数据高度吻合。
消息人士和CSIS专家表示，今年早些时候五角大楼已签署一系列有助于扩大导弹生产的合同，但即便产能提升，更换这些武器系统的交付周期仍需三至五年。
CSIS的分析结论称，从短期来看，若脆弱的停火协议破裂，美军仍有足够的炸弹和导弹继续针对伊朗开展作战行动。但美国库存中的关键弹药数量已不足以应对中国等势均力敌的对手，且可能需要数年时间才能将这些武器的库存恢复至战前水平。
“高额的弹药消耗使西太平洋地区的脆弱性窗口期扩大，”退役美国海军陆战队上校、CSIS报告作者之一的马克·坎西恩告诉CNN，“ replenish these inventories and several years after that to expand them to where they need to be.”
五角大楼首席发言人肖恩·帕内尔在给CNN的一份声明中表示，美军“拥有在总统选定的时间和地点执行任务所需的一切”。
他说：“自特朗普总统就职以来，我们在多个作战司令部执行了多次成功行动，同时确保美军拥有雄厚的武器库能力，以保护我们的人民和利益。”
分析和消息人士透露，美军还消耗了约30%的战斧导弹库存、超过20%的远程联合空对地防区外导弹储备，以及约20%的SM-3和SM-6导弹库存。更换这些系统大约需要四到五年时间。
追踪弹药耗尽情况的导弹消耗数据与唐纳德·特朗普总统近期的说法形成鲜明对比——特朗普此前声称美国没有任何武器短缺，尽管他曾因伊朗战争对现有库存的影响而申请追加导弹拨款。
“我们提出这项申请有很多原因，甚至超出了我们在伊朗问题上讨论的范围，”特朗普上个月在谈及追加五角大楼拨款的请求时表示，“特别是弹药，高端弹药我们有很多，但我们正在妥善储备。”
他补充道：“为确保我们始终处于巅峰状态，这只是一个很小的代价。”
CSIS报告指出，特朗普政府近期与私营公司达成的协议应会提振生产，但由于过去订单规模较小，这些关键弹药的近期交付量相对较低。
据CNN此前报道，战争爆发前，参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军和其他军方领导人曾警告特朗普，旷日持久的军事行动可能会影响美国的武器库存——尤其是那些用于支援以色列和乌克兰的武器。
自冲突爆发以来，国会中的民主党人已对使用的弹药数量及其对美国在中东及其他地区国防的影响表示担忧。
“伊朗有能力制造大量沙赫德无人机、弹道导弹，包括中程和短程导弹，而且他们拥有庞大的库存，”亚利桑那州民主党参议员马克·凯利上个月表示，“所以在某个时刻……这就变成了一个数学问题，我们如何补充防空弹药。这些弹药将从何而来？”
US at risk of running out of missiles if another war breaks out after depleting stockpile in Iran operations
2026-04-21T17:00:55.135Z / CNN
By Zachary Cohen, Natasha Bertrand
Updated 3 hr ago
Updated Apr 21, 2026, 1:02 PM ET
PUBLISHED Apr 21, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
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This image from video provided by US Central Command shows a missile being launched from a US Navy ship in support of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026.
US Central Command/AP
The US military has significantly depleted its stockpile of key missiles during the war with Iran and created a “near-term risk” of running out of ammunition in a future conflict should one arise in the next few years, according to experts and three people familiar with recent internal Defense Department stockpile assessments.
Over the last seven weeks of war, the US military has expended at least 45% of its stockpile of Precision Strike Missiles; at least half of its inventory of THAAD missiles, which are designed to intercept ballistic missiles; and nearly 50% of its stockpile of Patriot air defense interceptor missiles, according to a new analysis conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Those numbers closely align with classified Pentagon data about US stockpiles, according to the sources familiar with the assessment.
Earlier this year the Pentagon signed a series of contracts that would help expand missile production, but the delivery timeline to replace these systems is three to five years even with the increased capacity, the CSIS experts and the sources said.
In the short term, the US likely maintains enough bombs and missiles to continue combat operations against Iran, in any scenario, should the shaky ceasefire fail to hold. But the number of critical munitions remaining in US stockpiles is no longer sufficient to confront a near-peer adversary, like China, and it will likely take years before the inventory of those weapons returns to pre-war levels, the CSIS analysis concludes.
“The high munitions expenditures have created a window of increased vulnerability in the western Pacific,” Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps Colonel and one of the authors of the CSIS report, told CNN. “It will take one to four years to replenish these inventories and several years after that to expand them to where they need to be.”
In a statement to CNN, chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said that the military “has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing.”
“Since President Trump took office, we have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests,” he said.
The US military has also expended approximately 30% of its Tomahawk missile stockpile; more than 20% of its stockpile of long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles; and approximately 20% of its SM-3 and SM-6 missiles, according to the analysis and the sources. It would take around four to five years to replace those systems.
The missile math tracking the depleted stockpile stands in stark contrast to President Donald Trump’s recent claim that that the US is not running short of any weaponry – even as he requested additional funding for missiles due to the Iran war’s impact on existing stockpiles.
“We’re asking for a lot of reasons, beyond even what we’re talking about in Iran,” Trump said last month, referring to the request for additional Pentagon funding. “Munitions in particular, at the high end we have a lot, but we’re preserving it.”
“It’s a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top,” he added.
The Trump administration’s recent agreements with private companies should boost production, but near-term deliveries of these key munitions are relatively low because of small orders in the past, the CSIS report notes.
Before the war began, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and other military leaders warned Trump that a protracted military campaign could impact US weapons stockpiles – particularly those that support Israel and Ukraine, CNN previously reported.
And since the start of the conflict, Democrats on Capitol Hill have voiced unease about the amount of munitions used and what it could mean for US defense in the Middle East and beyond.
“The Iranians do have the ability to make a lot of Shahed drones, ballistic missiles, medium range, short range and they’ve got a huge stockpile,” Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly said last month. “So at some point … this becomes a math problem and how can we resupply air defense munitions. Where are they going to come from?”
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