2026年4月20日 美国东部时间下午1:52 / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
分析报道：
亚伦·布莱克
唐纳德·特朗普 石油与天然气 经济
埃蒂安·洛朗/法新社/盖蒂图片社
当前伊朗战争的国内政治局势，几乎可以用两个词概括：油价。
或许没有哪个议题能比油价更能体现本届政府在这场战争相关问题上混乱不堪的信息传递策略。
周一，唐纳德·特朗普总统直接推翻了能源部长克里斯·赖特前一天关于油价可能持续多久的表态。赖特此前曾告诉CNN，美国可能要到2027年才能看到每加仑3美元以下的汽油，而特朗普称他“完全错了”。
就在几天前，特朗普本人就在同一议题上前后矛盾。财政部长斯科特·贝森特也加剧了这种信息不一致的情况。
换句话说：局面一团糟。特朗普政府似乎并未刻意打造一致的信息口径，最终反而搬起石头砸了自己的脚。这一情况也进一步印证，特朗普及其团队原本预计这场战争耗时会短得多，至少低估了伊朗对全球石油供应可能造成的破坏程度。
我们来梳理一下时间线。
3月8日，战争爆发约一周后，赖特告诉CNN主持人杰克·塔珀，汽油价格将“很快”回落至每加仑3美元以下。当被问及具体时间时，他表示只需几周。
“最坏的情况也不过几周，不是几个月的事，”赖特说。
赖特随后在接受NBC新闻《与媒体见面》节目采访时表示，油价很有可能在夏季前回落至该水平。
但随着时间推移，霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭，赖特的预测被证明有误。根据Gas Buddy平台数据，战争爆发七周多后，美国汽油均价仍维持在每加仑4美元左右。
到4月12日，现实似乎让他们认清了局面。福克斯新闻播出的采访中，特朗普表示，在11月中期选举前，汽油和油价甚至可能都不会下跌。
“价格可能会降，也可能维持现状，或许还会略涨，但应该会稳定在当前水平附近，”特朗普告诉玛丽亚·巴尔蒂罗莫。
但就在几天之后，特朗普在巴尔蒂罗莫的福克斯商业频道节目中接受采访时，语气发生了巨大转变。
他称“汽油价格很快就会大幅下跌”。
“我认为中期选举前油价就会大幅降低，”他补充道，“会低很多。”
不过在这两次采访之间，赖特已经开始收回自己此前的言论。当被问及能否在夏季前实现每加仑3美元以下的油价时，他表示：“现在来看，夏季这个时间框架太过激进了。”
4月15日，贝森特似乎试图调整预期目标。此前各方讨论的都是每加仑3美元以下的油价，他在白宫新闻发布会上表示，自己“乐观地认为，在6月20日至9月20日期间，我们有望重新实现每加仑3美元的汽油价格”。
但他同时也更改了表述，提到“标价首位数字为3的汽油”——这一范围可以是每加仑3.00美元至3.99美元。
“我乐观地认为，今年夏天我们迟早能看到油价首位数字为3的汽油，”贝森特在同一场新闻发布会上说道。
考虑到当时全国汽油均价仅略高于每加仑4美元，这一预测相当保守。（美国许多地区的油价早已达到首位数字为3的水平，只需小幅下跌就能拉低全国均价至该区间。）
不过，周日赖特发表了可能是迄今为止最悲观的言论。
安娜·穆尼梅克/盖蒂图片社
在再次接受塔珀采访时，他暗示油价要跌破3美元还需要很长时间。
“这可能会在今年晚些时候实现，”赖特说，“也有可能要等到明年。”
他随后强调，实现每加仑3美元的油价是一个雄心勃勃的目标，称“按通胀调整后计算，这已经是相当高的水平了”。
但这些言论显然引起了特朗普的不满。周一特朗普在接受《国会山报》采访时，直接驳斥了他的能源部长。
“不，我认为他在这个问题上错了，”特朗普说，“完全错了。”
从一开始，特朗普及其团队在伊朗战争问题上的表态就充满混乱，且常常自相矛盾。但特朗普如此直接且迅速地反驳自己的能源部长，还是格外引人注目。尤其值得注意的是，就在大约一周前，特朗普本人还表达了相当悲观的态度。
当然，特朗普似乎很快就对自己当时的言论感到后悔，并迅速调整了立场。
这是一个至关重要的议题，因为油价是民众最直观感受到这场战争持续成本的标志，即便战争很快结束，油价回落也可能需要一段时间。
但目前看来，政府几乎没有信息纪律——在应该如何向民众解释高油价还要持续多久的问题上，内阁成员并未形成统一口径。
特朗普似乎更倾向于强调“一切安好”，让民众相信胜利和油价回落近在眼前。其中的明显问题——正如赖特最初预测的那样——高油价只会持续几周而非几个月，一旦预测落空，官员们就会显得无能。
这位能源部长曾说“最坏情况也不过几周”。但即便本周和谈取得成功，油价似乎也不太可能在如此短的时间内出现如此大幅的下跌。
这意味着，当前的局势比特朗普政府设想的最坏情况还要糟糕。
因此，当美国民众被政府告知这场高油价只是暂时的困境时，他们有理由质疑特朗普团队是否清楚自己在做什么。
How long will high gas prices last? Trump’s team doesn’t seem to have any idea
2026-04-20 1:52 PM ET / CNN
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
Donald Trump Investing Oil & gas Economy
People put gas in their cars at a gas station located in front of the ConocoPhillips Oil Refinery in Wilmington, California on April 11.
Etienne Laurent/AFP/Getty Images
The domestic politics of the Iran war can mostly be summed up by two words right now: gas prices.
And perhaps no issue better epitomizes the administration’s haphazard messaging strategy when it comes to the war.
President Donald Trump on Monday directly contradicted Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s comments just a day earlier about how long gas prices could linger. While Wright had told CNN that we might not see gas under $3 per gallon until 2027, Trump called him “totally wrong.”
Days before, Trump contradicted his own words on the very same subject. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has contributed to some inconsistent messaging here, too.
In other words: It’s a mess. The Trump administration doesn’t seem to have taken any care to drive a consistent message that wouldn’t ultimately come back to bite it in the backside. And the situation reinforces how Trump and his team seemed to anticipate a much shorter war or at least underestimated how much damage Iran could cause to the global oil supply.
Let’s recap.
On March 8, about a week into the war, Wright told CNN’s Jake Tapper that gas would be back under $3 per gallon “before too long.” When pressed on how long, he indicated it was just weeks away.
“In the worst case, this is a weeks, this is not a months thing,” Wright said.
Wright then told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that there was a very good chance this would happen by the summer.
But as the weeks rolled on and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, Wright’s prediction was proven false. More than seven weeks into the war, gas remains around $4 per gallon, according to Gas Buddy.
By April 12, reality seemed to set in. Fox News aired an interview in which Trump said gas and oil prices might not even drop at all before the November midterm elections.
“It could be [lower], or the same, or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be around the same,” Trump told Maria Bartiromo.
But when Trump spoke with Bartiromo just days later for her Fox Business Network show, his tone shifted dramatically.
He said that “gasoline is coming down very soon and very big.”
“I think they’ll be much lower before midterm,” he added. “Much lower.”
But sandwiched between those two interviews, Wright started to walk back his own comments. When asked about sub-$3 gas by the summer, he said, “by the summer is an aggressive time frame now.”
And on April 15, Bessent seemed to want to adjust the goalposts. The talk had been about gas under $3, and he said at a White House briefing that he was “optimistic that sometime between June 20 and September 20, that we can have $3 gas again.”
But he also switched his phrasing, mentioning “gas with a three in front of it” — which could mean anywhere from $3.00 to $3.99.
“I’m optimistic that during the summer, we will see gas with a three in front of it sooner rather than later,” Bessent said at the same briefing.
That’s a rather modest prediction, given gas was just a shade over $4 per gallon in the national average at the time. (Gas in many areas of the country already had a three in front of it, and it wouldn’t take much to drop the average to that point.)
But it was Wright who offered perhaps the most pessimistic comments to date on Sunday.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright speaks during a panel at the BlackRock Infrastructure Summit in Washington, DC, on March 11.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Speaking to Tapper again, he suggested it would be a while before gas would drop below $3.
“That could happen later this year,” Wright said. “That might not happen until next year.”
He then emphasized that $3 per gallon gas is an ambitious goal, calling it “pretty tremendous in inflation-adjusted terms.”
But those comments apparently didn’t sit well with Trump, who spoke Monday with The Hill and directly undercut his energy secretary.
“No, I think he’s wrong on that,” Trump said. “Totally wrong.”
Trump and his team have offered confusing and often-contradictory messages on the Iran war from the beginning. But Trump contradicting Wright so directly and so quickly stands out. It’s especially striking since it was only about a week ago that the president was sounding quite pessimistic himself.
Trump, of course, seemed to think better of those comments and quickly adjusted course.
This is a critical issue, given gas prices are the most in-your-face reminder about the ongoing cost of this war and that they could take a while to fall even if the war ends quickly.
But there just seems to be almost no message discipline — no united front on what the administration is supposed to tell people about how long they’ll have to deal with higher gas prices.
Trump’s desire seems to be an “all is well” emphasis that assures victory and price relief are just around the corner. The obvious problem there — and Wright’s original prediction that high gas prices would only last weeks, not months, is a case in point — is that officials look inept when that doesn’t pan out.
The energy secretary said “weeks” was a “worst case.” But even if peace talks are successful this week, it seems unlikely gas prices could drop that much, that quickly.
Which would suggest we’re in a worse situation than even the worst-case scenario that the Trump administration envisioned.
So it’s justifiable for Americans, who the administration led to believe this would be a temporary hardship, to wonder if Trump officials have any idea what they’re doing.
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