2026年2月4日 / 美国东部时间下午1:39 / CBS新闻
美国和俄罗斯之间最后一项限制核武器部署数量的条约将于周四到期，这标志着世界上拥有最大核武库的两个国家之间数十年的军备控制协议时代结束。
2010年美俄签署的《新削减战略武器条约》（New START Treaty）将双方部署的战略核武器数量限制在各1550枚，并要求进行现场检查和通知，以确保两个超级大国遵守协议。
据美国国务院上月发布的最新报告，俄罗斯在乌克兰战争期间停止了通知并暂停了检查，但据估计并未大幅超出规定上限。
2021年，前总统拜登将该条约延长了五年，但无法进一步延长。
今年1月，特朗普总统告诉《纽约时报》”如果到期就到期”，暗示他可能允许该条约失效。白宫一名官员告诉CBS新闻，总统将决定核军备控制的前进道路”他将在自己的时间表中澄清”，并表示他希望对核武器保持限制并让中国参与未来的军备控制谈判。
国务卿马可·卢比奥周三表示，没有中国参与”不可能达成协议”，”因为中国的核武库规模庞大且增长迅速”。五角大楼估计，到2035年中国的核武器数量将从2019年的约200枚增至1000多枚。
根据美国科学家联合会的数据，目前的条约是美俄之间的双边协议，双方分别拥有约4300枚和3700枚核弹头。
俄罗斯总统普京在9月表示，双方应在一年内不签署新协议的情况下遵守条约参数。前负责军控事务的副国务卿罗斯·戈特莫勒（Rose Gottemoeller）告诉参议员这是一个可行的选择。
“在这种情况下，应该是唐纳德·特朗普成为核和平的总统，而不是弗拉基米尔·普京，”戈特莫勒周二在参议院武装部队委员会作证时说。她认为，继续将《新削减战略武器条约》的限制再维持一年，将使美国”能够与俄罗斯重新建立战略稳定，并在谈判桌上控制核武器”。
美国战略司令部前负责人、退休海军上将查尔斯·理查德以及特朗普第一任期国家安全事务副助理蒂姆·莫里森对此表示不同意，他们认为该条约未解决几个紧迫问题。
三位前官员都同意该条约并不完美，部分原因是它未将中国纳入考量，也未限制非战略核武器（如战术核武器），但戈特莫勒告诉参议员，有总比没有好。
“我的底线是，在同时面临俄罗斯快速扩充核武库的情况下，不得不应对中国核力量建设不符合美国国家安全利益，”戈特莫勒说。
既然限制美俄的条约即将到期，每位官员都对其他国家未来可能探索自己的核计划表示担忧，即使它们目前没有积极推进。
“我认为不能低估核扩散的风险，”莫里森告诉参议员。
莫里森表示，美国的核武库正在老化，并强调有效的核威慑需要持续投资。
“到2035年，100%的美国核武器，包括核弹头和炸弹本身，平均将超过其设计寿命30年，”莫里森说。”可靠执行军备条约的唯一手段是能够威胁不遵守将面临有力回应。”
（无日期）：未来”哥伦比亚”级弹道导弹核潜艇的艺术渲染图。12艘”哥伦比亚”级潜艇是造船优先级项目，将取代达到最大服役年限的”俄亥俄”级潜艇。美国海军插图
为有效部署武器，美国需要加强国防工业基础，三位前官员都同意这一点，特别是在建造将构成核三位一体海基部分的”哥伦比亚”级潜艇方面。
“我认为三位一体的各个部分数量都不足，特别是轰炸机和弹道导弹潜艇部分，”前美国战略司令部负责人、退休海军上将理查德说。”除了核三位一体的更新换代和增加容量外，我们还应考虑其他能力。”
萨拉·库克对本报告有贡献。
Arms control treaty limiting U.S., Russian nuclear weapons to expire, as leaders mull what’s next
February 4, 2026 / 1:39 PM EST / CBS News
The last remaining treaty between the U.S. and Russia that limits the number of deployable nuclear weapons expires Thursday, marking the end of decades of arms control agreements between the two countries with the largest nuclear arsenals in the world.
The New START Treaty, signed in 2010 by the U.S. and Russia, limited the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons to 1,550 on each side and required on-site inspections and notifications to ensure both superpowers were complying with the agreement.
Russia stopped providing notifications and suspended inspections during the war in Ukraine but is estimated to not have significantly exceeded the required caps, according to the State Department’s latest report released last month.
Former President Joe Biden in 2021 extended the treaty for five years, but it cannot be extended further.
In January, President Trump told The New York Times “if it expires, it expires,” indicating he could let the treaty lapse. A White House official told CBS News the president will decide a path forward on nuclear arms control “which he will clarify on his own timeline,” and he has indicated he would like to keep limits on nuclear weapons and involve China in future arms control talks.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that it’s “impossible” to come to an agreement without China “because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile.”The Pentagon has estimated China will have over 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2035, up from around 200 in 2019.
The current treaty is a bilateral agreement between the U.S. and Russia, which have about 4,300 and 3,700 nuclear warheads respectively, according to the Federation of American Scientists.
Russian President Vladimir Putin in September suggested both sides should abide by the parameters of the treaty without signing another deal for a year, which former Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Rose Gottemoeller told senators was a viable option.
“It should be Donald Trump who gets to be the president of nuclear peace in this case, not Vladimir Putin,” Gotttemoeller testified Tuesday before the Senate Armed Services Committee. She argued that continuing to keep New START limits in place for another year would allow the U.S. “to reestablish strategic stability with Russia and control nuclear weapons at the negotiating table.”
Retired Adm. Charles Richard, the former head of U.S. Strategic Command, and Tim Morrison, a former deputy assistant to the president for national security affairs during the first Trump administration, disagreed, arguing that the treaty does not address several pressing concerns.
All three of the former officials agreed the treaty is not perfect, in part, because it does not account for China and it doesn’t constrain non-strategic nuclear weapons, like tactical nuclear weapons, but Goettmoeller told senators it’s better than nothing.
“My bottom line is that it does not serve U.S. national security interests to have to address the Chinese nuclear buildup while simultaneously facing a rapid Russian upload campaign,” Gottemoeller said.
Now that the treaty limiting the U.S. and Russia is expected to expire, each of the officials raised concerns about other countries exploring their own nuclear programs in the future even if they’re not actively pursuing it right now.
“I don’t think you can understate the risk of proliferation,” Morrison told senators.
Morrison said the U.S. stockpile is aging and emphasized that effective nuclear deterrence requires sustained investment.
“By 2035, 100% of U.S. nuclear weapons, the warheads and bombs themselves, will have exceeded their design lives by an average of 30 years,” Morrison said. “The only means to reliably enforce compliance with arms treaties is to be able to threaten that failure to comply will be met with a compelling response.”
Undated: An artist rendering of the future Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines. The 12 submarines of the Columbia class are a shipbuilding priority and will replace the Ohio-class submarines reaching maximum extended service life. U.S. Navy illustration
And to deploy the weapons effectively, the U.S. needs to boost its defense industrial base, the former officials all agreed, especially when it comes to building Columbia-class submarines that will make up the sea-based part of the nuclear triad.
“I think the numbers are insufficient on all portions of the triad, particularly on the bomber and the ballistic missile submarine leg,” said Richard, the retired admiral formerly in charge of U.S. Strategic Command. “There are additional capabilities that we should consider in addition to the recapitalization of the triad and increasing the capacity inside the triad.”
Sara Cook contributed to this report.
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