特朗普聚焦2026年一大关键议题：可能替换阿利托与托马斯大法官

Trump leans in on a major 2026 issue: possibly replacing Justices Alito and Thomas

Apr 16, 2026, 4:00 AM ET / CNN Politics

Analysis by

Aaron Blake

Supreme Court Donald Trump Supreme Court justices

Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas

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President Donald Trump seems to be leaning in on the idea that elderly conservative Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas might think about a conveniently timed retirement this year.

Trump couched his comments to Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo in respect for the jurisprudence and decision-making processes of both justices. But he also repeatedly gestured at the political utility of them retiring soon:

• “I think he is one of the great justices of all time,” Trump said of Alito, before adding: “It’d be nice to say, now I have somebody for 40 years.”
• Trump said he already had a short list of possible replacements.
• He seemed to point to the late liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg as a cautionary tale, noting she declined to retire and then died when Trump was able to appoint a conservative replacement. “She really hurt herself within the Democrat Party,” Trump said.
• He twice alluded to how justices can preserve their ideology on the court for decades to come by allowing for a like-minded replacement.

As they often are, Trump’s comments about the Supreme Court were remarkably political.

But he also made some good points. This is one of the biggest political questions of 2026, for a host of reasons. And the decisions made by Alito, 76, and Thomas, 77, could reverberate in many ways.

The first thing to note is that Alito and/or Thomas retiring would be very much in keeping with how things work on the Supreme Court. The last seven justices to retire (as opposed to dying in office like Ginsburg or Antonin Scalia) have done so when the party more aligned with them controlled both the presidency and the Senate — and could confirm a like-minded replacement.

While judges like to talk about how the judiciary isn’t just another political branch of government, the pattern of their retirement timing doesn’t seem like a coincidence.

Alito and Thomas are close to the normal retirement age, even if both are a bit on the young side. The last 10 justices to retire were 80 years old on average.

Both could stick it out, but if Republicans lose the Senate in November, the justices could be well into their 80s before the GOP holds the White House and the Senate again.

(One reason Thomas could hang on, though: He’s about two years from becoming the longest-serving justice ever.)

And there will also likely be significant political pressure to avoid the situation that Ginsburg put Democrats in — whether it comes from Trump or other Republicans. (Stephen Breyer faced pressure to retire early in Joe Biden’s presidency after the Ginsburg episode. He eventually did in 2022.)

The political risk for Trump is great because it’s looking increasingly likely that Democrats will make significant gains in the 2026 election, at least in the House. (It’ll be much harder for Democrats to flip the Senate since it involves winning some red states that Trump won by double digits, but it can’t be ruled out.)

And what’s more, even if Senate Democrats come up short in November, there could be a big difference between Trump nominating a justice with 53 Republican votes this year and trying to do so with 50 or 51 in the second half of his term. In the latter cases, he could be relying on more moderate senators like Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski and Maine’s Susan Collins (if she wins reelection this year).

Justice Neil Gorsuch and Justice Amy Coney Barrett

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Given Trump’s recent disenchantment with two of his appointees who ruled against him on the tariffs case — Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Neil Gorsuch — he would likely prefer to have some cushion to choose someone he might view as more loyal.

But the president may have other reasons, apart from the confirmability factor, to try and usher things in this direction.

First, a confirmation fight could provide a sorely needed turnout boost for a GOP base that is significantly less enthusiastic about the midterms than Democrats are.

There is some thought that Democrats’ attempts to defeat Trump’s nomination of Brett Kavanaugh in the runup to the 2018 election helped the GOP win some vulnerable red-state Senate races in what was otherwise a tough election for the party.

But perhaps the more significant reason could be Trump’s legacy.

Replacing Alito, Thomas or both with younger justices would not change the court’s 6-3 conservative majority. But it would likely help cement it for much longer.

Trump in his comments to Fox Business spoke about appointing someone who could serve for 40 years. If he replaced even one of Alito or Thomas with someone in their 40s, for example, the average age of the conservative justices would be less than 60. If he replaced both with justices in their 40s, that average age would drop into the mid-50s.

Such a change would give Trump an even more significant imprint on the court, appointing either 4 out of 9 justices or 5 out of 9 justices between his first and second terms.

Which is an idea that seems to interest him quite a bit.

At the end of that section of the Fox Business interview, Bartiromo sought to switch topics. But Trump cut in to make one last point: suggesting maybe he could be dealing with more than just Alito and Thomas retiring.

“In theory, it’s two or three, they tell me. If you just read statistics, it could be two, could be three, could be one. I don’t know,” Trump said, before adding: “I’m prepared to do it.”