2026-02-04 / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）政治版
作者：阿里特·约翰
更新于16分钟前
更新时间：2026年2月4日，美国东部时间上午7:56
发布时间：2026年2月4日，美国东部时间上午6:00
图片说明：Alberto Mier/CNN/Getty Images
八年前，在数十名退伍军人和有服役背景的候选人的帮助下，民主党人以40多个席位的优势翻转了众议院控制权。这些候选人受激励参选，旨在制衡总统唐纳德·特朗普。
然而，今年的中期选举不太可能重现这一情景。
两党均认为，选举地图的竞争范围大幅缩小，部分原因是中期重新划分选区以及政治极化加剧。尽管民主党在选举周期开始时拥有固有优势，但他们的选民支持率却处于多年来的低位。明年控制众议院的政党可能仅以微弱多数掌权。
“The wind is at Democrats’ back, but people underestimate how steep the hill to climb is,” said Jesse Ferguson, a strategist who has worked for House Democrats’ campaign arm. “If I was judging on the environment, I’d rather be us, and if I was judging on the terrain, I’d rather be them.”
[相关文章 图片说明：Alberto Mier/CNN/美国参议院 决定美国参议院控制权的10场关键竞选 阅读时间11分钟]
两党都希望选民风向转向对自己有利的方向。共和党人押注选民对经济的看法将在未来几个月改善，而民主党人则看到了移民政策上的机会——选民对政府处理移民问题的方式有所降温。
联邦特工在明尼阿波利斯开枪打死两名抗议者（一名三个孩子的母亲和一名ICU护士）后，公众愤怒情绪加剧，而政府官员最初对枪击事件的情况发表了未经证实的声明。
“我认为特朗普总统已经走在正确的道路上，但……我们不能再有更多类似明尼苏达州的情况了，”致力于选举共和党温和派的”共和党中间派伙伴关系”组织总裁萨拉·张伯伦表示。
全国范围内的选区重划斗争仍在持续，距离11月选举仅剩九个月，但目前还远不清楚哪些议题会成为选民关注的焦点。以下是两党对选情的分析：
民主党争取多数席位的路径
- 理论优势：在纸上，民主党有理由对11月的选举感到乐观。自1938年以来，华盛顿的执政党在中期选举中除两次外，均能在众议院获得席位。选民对特朗普在经济问题上的信任度正在下降，其移民执法支持率也在下滑。此外，民主党在过去一年的补选中表现出色，最近在得克萨斯州参议院竞选中再次获胜。
- 核心信息：民主党似乎找到了一条能引起选民共鸣的信息——”负担能力”。新泽西州、弗吉尼亚州和纽约市去年的选举表明，集中关注医疗保健、公用事业、食品杂货和住房成本上涨问题，对一个在2024年失去工人阶级和少数族裔选民支持的政党而言，是一条胜利之路。
- 挑战：但民主党前路并非坦途。共和党团体（包括全国共和党国会委员会NRCC和共和党全国委员会）的筹款额已超过民主党对手。与特朗普结盟的超级政治行动委员会”MAGA Inc”截至2025年底拥有3亿美元资金。
- 形象重建：民主党仍在努力重塑公众形象。虽然多数选民表示更愿意支持”普通民主党人”而非共和党人，但该党的领导人支持率却低于2018年中期选举前的水平。最新CNN/SSRS民调显示，民主党领导人的支持率在1月份落后44个百分点，而2017年9月这一差距为28个百分点。
“那些认为民主党会赢得众议院的人正在犯错误，”弗格森表示，”这并非板上钉钉——存在获胜的路径，但绝不是轻而易举的。”
共和党争夺中期选举意外胜利的理由
- 选举地图优势：共和党将打破历史规律的希望寄托在选举地图上。如今的竞争性席位比八年前少得多。民主党试图将竞选范围扩大到更偏向共和党人的选区（如北卡罗来纳州第11选区，特朗普在2024年以近10个百分点的优势获胜），而共和党则在特朗普获胜的几个民主党席位中寻找进攻机会。
- 2018年经验教训：2018年，共和党人在希拉里·克林顿2016年赢得的近24个现任议员选区（主要是郊区）进行防御战，这些摇摆选区是民主党获胜的关键。
- 重划选区后的格局：在选区重划之前，共和党只需防御副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯赢得的3个席位，而民主党有13名现任议员在特朗普赢得的选区。共和党估计，目前有16名民主党人在特朗普的选区，7名共和党人在哈里斯的选区。
- 民主党”跨党派”选区：这些包括缅因州第2选区（议员贾里德·戈尔登宣布退休）和俄亥俄州议员玛西·卡普图尔的第9选区（在去年通过的新选区地图下进一步右倾）。
- 经济预期：共和党人还希望经济在11月选举前改善，从而获得选民认可。”2018年，从特朗普总统任期第一周开始，我们就背负着医保政策的沉重包袱，这种状况一直没有缓解，”2018年NRCC通讯主任马特·戈尔曼表示，”而现在的局面更加灵活。”
- 特朗普效应：特朗普最近访问爱荷华州突显了共和党面临的另一挑战——总统的支持者不一定会支持其他共和党候选人，尤其是当其名字未出现在选票上时（如2024年情况）。尽管特朗普在2024年选举中以8个百分点的优势赢得爱荷华州第1选区，但共和党议员玛丽安内特·米勒-米克斯仅以799票的微弱优势保住了该席位。
“我们需要他的支持者出来投票，这是显而易见的，”张伯伦说，”所以他会努力做到这一点，帮助我们。”
选区重划对选情的影响
根据CNN的分析，目前共和党在选区重划斗争中以微弱优势领先。新地图可能帮助共和党额外获得9个席位（得克萨斯州5个、俄亥俄州2个、密苏里州和北卡罗来纳州各1个）；而民主党则可能在加利福尼亚州获得5个席位，犹他州获得1个席位。
然而，选区重划的最终结果仍不确定。民主党希望在马里兰州（州议会正在考虑新地图）和弗吉尼亚州（立法者将请求选民批准可能为该党增加4个席位的地图）获得额外席位。密苏里州选民也可能通过公投推翻该州的现有选区地图。
最大的变数是最高法院对《选举权法》的裁决时机。观察人士预计，该裁决可能削弱《选举权法》的部分条款。民主党正准备应对法院可能为南部各州消除少数族裔占多数的选区扫清道路。如果裁决在今年早些时候公布，共和党控制的州议会将有更多时间重新划分国会选区。
关键选区焦点
宾夕法尼亚州第8选区
- 首次当选的共和党议员罗布·布雷斯诺汉以”朴实无华的温和派”形象击败民主党议员马特·卡特赖特，其竞选口号是反对国会股票交易。然而，自上任以来，布雷斯诺汉已成为国会中最活跃的股票交易者之一。他随后签署了一份解除国会交易限制的请愿书，并指示其财务顾问停止主动管理股票，但民主党人认为损害已经造成。斯克兰顿市长佩奇·科格内蒂去年以”佩奇反对机器”为竞选口号发起挑战，呼应她2019年独立参选市长时与当地民主党领导人的冲突。
“民主党候选人的战略当务之急是揭露共和党现任议员如何导致物价高企，并明确民主党候选人与选民对民主党人的期望有何不同，”弗格森表示。
纽约州第17选区
- 共和党议员迈克·劳勒是2024年哈里斯赢得的两个共和党现任议员之一，而民主党有多名候选人计划在11月挑战他。但共和党人认为劳勒也是一名强大的候选人，筹款能力突出。他在2024年以超过6个百分点的优势击败前议员蒙德亚尔·琼斯。
“他对选区非常了解，敢于采取激进策略，也勇于发声，”戈尔曼说。
更正：本文已更正，马特·戈尔曼曾担任全国共和党国会委员会通讯主任。
Why Democrats might struggle to achieve another midterm ‘blue wave’ in the US House
2026-02-04 / CNN Politics
By Arit John
Updated 16 min ago
Updated Feb 4, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
PUBLISHED Feb 4, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
Photo Illustration by Alberto Mier/CNN/Getty Images
Eight years ago, Democrats flipped more than 40 seats with the help of dozens of veterans and candidates with service backgrounds motivated to run as a check on President Donald Trump.
This year’s midterm elections are unlikely to go down quite like that.
Both parties agree the map is much narrower due in part to mid-cycle redistricting and increased political polarization. And while Democrats enter the cycle with built-in advantages, they’re also less popular with voters than they’ve been in years. Whichever party controls the House next year might enjoy just a slim majority.
“The wind is at Democrats’ back, but people underestimate how steep the hill to climb is,” said Jesse Ferguson, a strategist who has worked for House Democrats’ campaign arm. “If I was judging on the environment, I’d rather be us, and if I was judging on the terrain, I’d rather be them.”
[Related article Photo Illustration by Alberto Mier/CNN/US Senate The 10 races that will decide control of the US Senate 11 min read]
Both parties are hoping for shifts in their direction. Republicans are betting that voters’ views of the economy will improve in the coming months, while Democrats see an opening on immigration, where voters have cooled on the administration’s approach.
Public outrage has grown after federal agents fatally shot two protesters in Minneapolis – a mother of three and an ICU nurse – and administration officials made unsubstantiated initial claims about the circumstances around the killings.
“I think President Trump has started in the right direction, but … we cannot have any more Minnesotas,” said Sarah Chamberlain, the president and chief executive of the Republican Main Street Partnership, which works to elect GOP moderates.
The nationwide redistricting fight is still ongoing, and it’s far too early to know what issues will be top of mind for voters in November. But here’s how the two parties see the field nine months out.
The Democratic path to a majority
On paper, Democrats have reasons to be bullish about November.
The party out of power in Washington has picked up House seats in the midterm elections in all but two elections since 1938. The trust voters have long placed in Trump on the economy is waning, as are his approval ratings on immigration enforcement. And Democrats have been overperforming in special elections over the last year, most recently in a Texas state Senate race.
Democrats also seem to have found a message that is resonating with voters: affordability. Elections in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City last year all showed that focusing intensely on the rising cost of health care, utilities, groceries and housing is a winning blueprint for a party that lost support with working class and minority voters in 2024.
But the road ahead isn’t completely smooth for Democrats. Republican groups, including the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Republican National Committee, have outraised their Democratic counterparts. And MAGA Inc, a Trump-aligned super PAC, ended 2025 with $300 million.
Democrats are also still in the process of rebuilding their public image.
While more voters say they would be likely to vote for a generic Democrat over a Republican, the party’s leaders are less popular than they were heading into the 2018 midterm elections. A recent CNN/SSRS poll found that Democratic leaders’ approval rating was 44 points underwater in January, compared to 28 points underwater in September 2017.
“Those that are assuming Democrats will take the House are making a mistake,” Ferguson said. “It is not a foregone conclusion – there’s a path to victory. This is not a cakewalk.”
Republicans’ case for a midterm surprise
Republicans are tying their hopes of defying history to the electoral map.
There are far fewer competitive seats now than there were eight years ago. While Democrats are seeking to expand their map into redder and redder territory like North Carolina’s 11th District, which Trump won by nearly 10 points in 2024, Republicans see offensive opportunities in the several seats held by Democrats in seats Trump won.
In 2018, Republicans were defending nearly two dozen incumbents in districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016, mainly in suburban districts. Those purple districts were key to Democrats’ path to victory.
Prior to the redistricting wars, Republicans were set to defend just three seats former Vice President Kamala Harris won, while Democrats had 13 incumbents in seats Trump won. Republicans estimate there are now 16 Democrats in Trump districts and seven Republicans in Harris seats.
Those Democratic crossover districts include Maine’s 2nd District, where Rep. Jared Golden is retiring, and Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s 9th District, which moved further right under new maps adopted last year.
Republicans are also hoping the economy will improve in a way voters appreciate ahead of November.
“In 2018 we had a millstone around our necks in terms of healthcare from the very start of the first week of the Trump presidency, and it really didn’t let up,” said Matt Gorman, who served as the NRCC’s communications director in 2018. “Here, it’s far more fluid.”
Gorman pointed to progress on inflation and fast economic growth. He said Republicans are betting voters will feel those changes ahead of Election Day.
“The question is will it get to the public fast enough to satisfy them? That’s the key. That’s the bet that they laid down,” he said.
Trump’s recent trip to Iowa highlighted another issue facing Republicans: the president’s voters don’t necessarily turn out for other Republicans, particularly when his name is not on the ballot as it was in 2024.
While the president won Iowa’s 1st District by eight points in that election, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks held onto the seat by a fraction of a point – just 799 votes. Trump also carried Rep. Zach Nunn’s 3rd District by a wider margin than the incumbent.
Trump’s visit is part of what Republicans hope will be a broader, more sustained effort to convince his supporters to turn out. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles has said Trump will campaign “like its 2024.”
“We need his people to turn out, obviously,” said Chamberlain, of the Republican Main Street Partnership. “So he’s going to work on doing that, helping us.”
How redistricting affects the map
As of now, Republicans are narrowly winning the redistricting war, based on a CNN analysis. New maps could help Republicans pick up as many as nine additional seats – five in Texas, two in Ohio and one each in Missouri and North Carolina. Democrats, meanwhile, are in position to gain up to five seats in California and one in Utah under redrawn lines.
But the midcycle redistricting wars are far from settled. Democrats are hoping to gain an additional seat in Maryland, where the legislature is considering a new map, and Virginia, where lawmakers will ask voters to approve a map that could deliver the party as many as four more seats. Voters in Missouri could also overturn that state’s map in a referendum process.
The biggest question, however, is the timing of a Supreme Court decision that observers expect could undercut provisions of the Voting Rights Act. Democrats are bracing for the court to clear the way for southern states to eliminate majority-minority districts. The sooner the decision drops this year, the more time Republican-controlled legislatures will have to draw up new congressional districts.
Race spotlight
Pennsylvania’s 8th District: First-term Rep. Rob Bresnahan narrowly defeated Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright by campaigning as a salt-of-the-earth moderate who opposed congressional stock trading. Since entering office, however, Bresnahan has become one of the chamber’s most prolific traders. He’s since signed onto a discharge petition to end congressional trading and told his financial advisors to halt active management of his stocks, but Democrats argue the damage has been done. Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti launched her campaign last year with the slogan “Paige Against the Machine,” a nod to her 2019 mayoral campaign, during which she ran as an independent after clashing with local Democratic leaders.
“The strategic imperative for Democratic candidates is to expose how the Republican incumbent is responsible for how expensive things are, and clarify how the Democratic candidate is different from what people have come to expect from Democrats,” Ferguson said.
New York’s 17th District: Rep. Mike Lawler is one of two GOP incumbents running in a district Harris carried in 2024, and a crowded Democratic field has formed to take him on in November. But Republicans argue he’s also a strong candidate and prolific fundraiser. He won his 2024 race against former Rep. Mondaire Jones by more than six points.
“He knows the district well. He’s not afraid to be aggressive, and he’s not afraid to get out there,” Gorman said.
Correction:This story has been corrected to reflect that Matt Gorman was communications director at the National Republican Congressional Committee.
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