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以下是国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃的完整访谈文字实录，该访谈于2026年4月12日在《与玛格丽特·布伦南直面国家》节目中播出。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 总裁先生/女士，非常感谢您抽出时间接受我们的采访。我们正处在一个极为特殊的时刻。您如何评估这场中东战争带来的经济冲击？
国际货币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃： 我们会从冲击的规模和持续时间两方面进行评估。可以明确的是，此次冲击影响巨大。原本应流向全球的13%的石油和20%的天然气已经滞留了五周，且这一情况还在持续。这是一场全球性的冲击，人人都需要使用能源，所有人都会感受到油价上涨带来的压力。同时，这种影响是不对称的，不同国家受到的冲击各不相同。如果您身处冲突周边地区，将遭受重创；如果您是石油进口国，也会受到严重影响；如果您没有足够的储备来缓冲冲击，处境将极为艰难。我们正在根据战争的持续时间推演不同的场景。目前我们抱有和平的希望，这将改善所有人的处境，但我们也在评估对基础设施的影响。大量基础设施已遭破坏，完全恢复运营需要时间。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 那我们来具体拆解一下。看起来亚洲承受了大部分经济冲击。韩国拥有庞大的芯片产业，已经呼吁国民节约能源；印度正在实行能源配给制；菲律宾发布了全国能源紧急状态公告；澳大利亚的加油站已经出现燃油短缺。似乎全球很大一部分地区都陷入了困境。
格奥尔基耶娃： 没错，民众正承受痛苦。这种痛苦源于能源供应的严重不足。在菲律宾，人们排队加油的场景和上世纪70年代美国人的经历如出一辙。他们还可能因为半导体或核磁共振成像设备所需的氦气供应受影响而陷入困境。现在——
玛格丽特·布伦南： 而这些氦气产自卡塔尔，来自中东地区。
格奥尔基耶娃： 没错，氦气产自卡塔尔，如今供应规模已经缩减。他们还可能因为化肥价格上涨而受苦。现在正值播种季节，如果无法以合理价格获得化肥，我们可能会看到食品价格大幅上涨。汇款也受到了影响。想想看，有多少人在海湾地区工作，然后向印度、孟加拉国等家乡寄钱，而现在这笔钱无法汇出。交通运输同样受到冲击。我真心为斯里兰卡感到难过，这个刚刚走出严重危机的国家又受到了波及——斯里兰卡三分之一的航班都要经过海湾地区，旅游业将遭受重创。因此，各国受到影响的原因多种多样。从冲击规模来看，这既取决于该国对进口能源的依赖程度，也取决于其财政状况。您是否有能力吸收冲击？没错，那些贫穷、脆弱的国家，无论身处亚洲还是撒哈拉以南非洲，都正遭受重创。我们在讨论应对措施时，会将重点放在这些高度脆弱的国家身上。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 那美国呢？美国人仍在消费、开车，但他们已经看到通胀上升，加油站的油价也在上涨。
格奥尔基耶娃： 没错，美国属于受冲击相对较小的国家，因为美国是能源出口国。但正如我所说，所有人都会感受到油价上涨带来的压力。为什么？这是一种负面的供给冲击。能源供应减少，但需求依然不变。结果是什么？价格上涨。而在美国，民众还没有看到通胀回落至目标水平。我们原本预计这会在2027年初实现，现在可能会有所推迟。这意味着什么？这相当于对民众的收入征税。受影响最严重的是谁？当然是低收入人群。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 没错。曾有一段时间，由于这场伊朗冲突，油价飙升近50%，您称这是现代历史上全球能源市场遭遇的最大 disruption，同时化肥等其他商品价格上涨也会推高食品价格。即使我们达成持久的停火协议，您认为这种影响会持续到2026年吗？
格奥尔基耶娃： 冲击的影响已经显现，因为本该运抵亚洲的油轮至今未到，对吧？我们已经感受到了这种影响。除此之外，还有基础设施受损带来的后续影响。72座能源设施遭到袭击，其中三分之一严重损毁。以卡塔尔的天然气田为例，恢复至满产状态需要三到五年时间，这影响重大。还有炼油厂等其他基础设施的问题，如果无法定期获得原油，炼油厂就必须停产，而重启则需要时间。因此，这场危机确实会在今年对经济造成一定拖累。但如果实现和平，局势显然会更快好转。最重要的是，一旦人们知道战斗已经结束，信心将得到提振。还有一点非常、非常重要，我们必须认识到：世界经济一直极具韧性。我们接连遭受一次又一次的冲击。如果不是这场战争，我们原本预计2026年的经济增长会小幅上调。现在我们将下调增长预期，下调的幅度将取决于两个因素：战争持续时间，以及一切恢复至战前生产水平的速度。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 但我们来明确一点：当人们看到停火或和平协议的努力取得进展时，他们会想，如果这成功了，油价就能回到2月27日，也就是战争爆发前一天的水平。您的意思是——
格奥尔基耶娃： 不会立刻回到原来的水平，这需要时间。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 这需要——在2026年，这需要一段时间。
格奥尔基耶娃： 确实需要一些时间，是的，受冲击更严重的地区需要的时间会更长。这就是为什么我们必须记住这种冲击的不对称性，也要体谅那些在一段时间内仍将面临能源供应短缺的地区。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 我们还听说欧洲航空公司面临航空燃油供应问题，您刚才也谈到了亚洲的情况。人们会看到机票价格上涨，这种情况还会持续一段时间。
克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃： 是的，我们需要记住一件好事：每当遭遇能源冲击，我们都会有所进步。过去每一次能源危机都会带来两个结果：能源效率提升，以及能源供应多元化。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 更多绿色能源。
格奥尔基耶娃： 没错，更多绿色能源。我们可以看到绿色能源的占比正在上升。遇到冲击后，人们会想，我该怎么做才能降低影响？这一转变终会发生，但问题是，这需要一年、一年半甚至两年时间。在此期间，民众和企业都会承受痛苦。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 那么IMF目前正在采取哪些措施来减轻这场危机对最弱势群体的冲击？
格奥尔基耶娃： 首先，我们会为各国提供合理的建议。在这种时刻，各国都会急于采取行动，其中有些举措是有益的，有些则不然。不要对石油产品贸易施加限制，为什么？因为如果我们让局势恶化，油价会涨得更高。我们告诉各国，如果想要帮助民众和企业，援助必须精准、谨慎，因为全球都面临财政空间不足的问题。所有这些冲击都导致我们更多地举债，这增加了借贷成本，加重了预算负担。因此，如果您决定提供援助，就应该帮助最脆弱的群体，瞄准目标，并且援助应该是临时性的。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 正如您所说，我们已经经历了太多冲击：伊朗发生了两次重大军事行动，乌克兰战争仍在持续，贸易争端不断，而这一切都发生在新冠疫情之后。您是否对我们没有陷入全球衰退、美国也不会陷入衰退感到意外？
格奥尔基耶娃： 我们并没有那么意外，原因只有一个。在经历了最近的这些冲击后，我们看到世界正在增强应对能力，而这种韧性来自三个方面。第一，全球各国政府都不再直接干预经济和企业运营，而是让私营部门发挥作用。私营部门更加灵活，适应性更强。因此，当遭遇冲击时，响应速度更快、效率更高。第二，在过去几十年里，许多新兴市场经济体采取行动强化了自身的基本面。独立的中央银行、财政委员会，这些都有助于制定良好的政策，保护各国，尤其是在危机时期。第三，科技创新。看看全球正在发生的技术变革——
玛格丽特·布伦南： 没错。
格奥尔基耶娃： ——这令人难以置信。所有这些因素都缓冲了全球经济，避免了衰退。不过，玛格丽特，我们并非完全不会陷入衰退，我们仍然必须保持警惕，遵循良好的政策，维护我们的机构健康，以此保护自己。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 好的，全球最大的两个经济体将于下个月，也就是5月中旬举行会晤，特朗普总统和习近平主席。您认为贸易战正在降温吗？您对此有多担忧？
格奥尔基耶娃： 两个最大的经济体找到缓解贸易摩擦的方式，这是非常好的事情。我们从两国的经济表现中可以看到这一点，当它们表现良好时，会对世界其他地区产生积极的溢出效应。因此，在这方面，我们非常鼓励两国开展对话，以缓解这两大经济体之间的贸易紧张局势。同时，它们也为世界其他国家树立了良好的榜样：贸易战没有赢家。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 您是否认为——全球经济学家是否高估了特朗普关税政策的负面影响？
格奥尔基耶娃： 啊，这个问题问得很好。关税政策出台时，IMF是极少数没有预测会出现衰退的机构之一。我们确实预测到增长会有所放缓，我们也确实看到增长出现了放缓——
玛格丽特·布伦南： 所以这会带来一定程度的 disruption？
格奥尔基耶娃： 我们认为会带来一定程度的 disruption，实际情况也确实如此。但随后出现了调整：美国通过协议缓解了关税带来的压力，不仅针对美国本土，也针对世界其他地区。而世界其他地区也意识到，我们应该看看如何扩大彼此间的贸易。大量新的贸易协定涌现，人们更加关注区域贸易，比如——
玛格丽特·布伦南： 您是说美国正在被边缘化？
格奥尔基耶娃： 嗯，美国表示希望建立一个主要依赖国内投资、本土制造业的经济，这是美国做出的选择。其他国家则在规划自身的经济未来。小型开放经济体别无选择，它们必须找到彼此开展贸易的方式，否则民众的生活成本会非常高。从某种意义上说，局势正在相对缓和，我们看到贸易就像水一样，遇到阻碍就会绕道而行。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 这很有意思，因为我们最近采访了欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德，她曾担任IMF总裁。她告诉我们，美元的吸引力正在减弱。她说，需要具备地缘政治公信力、法治、强大的制度和强大的军事力量，而特朗普政府引发的动荡并没有帮助。您是否同意这一观点？您认为人们对美元的信任和信心正在减弱吗？
格奥尔基耶娃： 我们看到，大量交易和资产都以美元计价。实际上，我们看到世界其他地区都在涌向美国进行投资，为什么？因为美国的生产率增长强劲，经济实力雄厚。与此同时，世界正朝着多极化方向发展，更多的经济中心正在崛起。因此，自然地，我们看到各国持有的外汇储备出现了一定程度的多元化转移。我相信，鉴于美国资本市场的深度和美国经济的实力，以及美国经济的吸引力——目前75%的金融资产都在美国——美元的地位仍然相当重要。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 因为我们看到，比如《华尔街日报》报道称，伊朗对通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只收取通行费时，会要求使用加密货币或人民币，以规避美国的制裁。
格奥尔基耶娃： 当然。当然，在一个多极化的世界里，我们会看到更多不同的选择。随着数字货币的发展乃至变革，我们当然会看到这种转移趋势。问题是，这种转移的规模有多大？这是否意味着明天你我一觉醒来，会发现“哦，发生了什么？我们的储蓄都是美元，我们需要担心吗？”不必担心。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 我想回到科技话题，您刚才提到了这一点，我想请您澄清一下。您曾表示，尤其是在发达经济体，人工智能的发展看起来就像一场即将冲击劳动力市场的海啸，这让很多人感到不安。这会对我们的生活方式造成多大程度的 disruption？
格奥尔基耶娃： 我们必须正视这个问题，因为人工智能已经到来。我对IMF的员工说，要么拥抱AI，要么被淘汰。它正在彻底改变我们的工作方式，影响非常深远。坦率地说，我认为我们还没有做好准备。我们来看看人工智能对劳动力市场的影响：在美国，已经有十分之一的工作岗位需要新的技能，而且薪资更高。当薪资上涨时，人们会怎么做？他们会外出消费，在餐厅、健身房花钱。这会增加对低技能劳动力的需求。但中间层，也就是年轻人通常的入门级工作岗位，正在快速减少。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 刚毕业的大学生，他们的就业遇到了问题。
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格奥尔基耶娃： 刚毕业的大学生。我们通过数据分析发现，总体就业人数实际上略有上升，但增加的都是低技能岗位。那么，年轻人难道只能去做咖啡师吗？我不这么认为。我们该如何帮助年轻人成为企业家，适应劳动力市场的变化？我们该如何改变思维模式，包括在教育体系中，让人们适应一个需要持续学习和永久变革的世界？这需要我们投入关注。而我最大的担忧是，如今世界上存在一种“注意力缺失症”。我们无法长时间专注于一个议题，而人工智能就是这样一个议题。除非我们集中精力研究其对劳动力市场的影响，思考如何改革教育体系、改善商业环境，否则我们最终会看到赢家少之又少，输家却比比皆是。人工智能加剧不平等、扩大机会差距的可能性非常大，无论是在国家内部还是国家之间。因此，我们必须集中精力应对这一问题。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 做好准备。好的，哥伦比亚广播公司获悉，美国财政部长和美联储主席几天前与华尔街领导人举行了紧急会议，专门讨论人工智能以及Anthropic公司推出的新模型。人们对此深感担忧。您对此感到担忧吗？他们为什么会感到恐慌？
格奥尔基耶娃： 因为这涉及到网络安全，风险呈指数级增长。没错，我们确实感到担忧。我们非常希望看到人们更加关注必要的监管框架，以保护人工智能时代的金融稳定。我——
玛格丽特·布伦南： 目前实际上并不存在这样的监管框架。
格奥尔基耶娃： 我们——我们目前还没有能力——作为一个全球整体——保护国际货币体系免受大规模网络风险的冲击。我们必须为此努力。IMF肩负着责任，我们正在与成员国合作，就风险的本质以及如何管理风险达成共识，因为在这个问题上，时间并不站在我们这边。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 没错，但你需要美联储和各国央行这样的机构来制定——
格奥尔基耶娃： 是的，没错。
玛格丽特·布伦南： ——如何管理网络攻击风险，也就是人们常说的黑客攻击？
格奥尔基耶娃： 我们确实需要——维护金融稳定的关键机构——当然，主要央行是其中的重要组成部分——我们需要它们保持高度警惕。我们还需要它们加强合作。因为是的，这个问题已经在美国得到了关注，但它很容易在世界其他地区出现，因此我们需要各国开展合作。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 开展合作。好的，该国总统一直在质疑多边机构的价值，IMF就是二战后废墟上建立起来的机构之一。您认为全球金融秩序确实需要进行一些改革吗？您刚才谈到了其中的一小部分，但我们确实需要重启这些体系和国际机构，以适应时代的需求，这种说法有道理吗？
格奥尔基耶娃： 世界正在快速变化，而且这种变化势不可挡。因此，像IMF这样的机构必须向前迈进，承担起与时代同步发展的责任。这对我们来说意味着什么？这意味着要识别世界经济面临的关键风险和机遇，然后动员成员国共同应对。我举一个简单的例子：是的，我们需要升级国际货币体系。在升级的同时，我们也必须保护现有的成果。那么我们的核心优势是什么？我们是唯一一个能够全面评估地球上每个经济体——无论大小、贫富——的机构，然后向全世界展示全球经济形势的全貌。我们也是唯一一个能够在困境中救助成员国的机构。我们可以迅速提供大规模的金融支持，我们已经做到了这一点，未来也会继续这么做。在一个冲击愈发频繁的世界里，我们需要一个稳定的锚，而这正是IMF的使命。IMF成立之初，世界局势相对平静，但现在已经不是这样了——
玛格丽特·布伦南： 您认为IMF成立时的世界更平静？
格奥尔基耶娃： 嗯，回想一下，当时人们乘船前来参加年会——
玛格丽特·布伦南： 变化的速度，明白了。
格奥尔基耶娃： 现在我们身处一个变化快得多的世界。在这样的世界里，我们更需要一个稳定的锚，一个能够保护我们的机构，当然，这个机构还需要与其他机构合作，而不是单打独斗，在瞬息万变的环境中维护稳定。玛格丽特，我常常觉得自己就像在波涛汹涌的海面上掌舵的船长，而这样的风浪还会继续。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 最后一个快速问题——欧洲的战争和乌克兰局势。IMF为乌克兰提供了大量援助，是仅次于美国的第二大外国捐助方。不过，基辅在控制国内政治秩序方面遇到了一些问题。您能做些什么来帮助他们？因为他们即将耗尽资金。
格奥尔基耶娃： 首先，我要承认乌克兰已经做了很多工作。这个已经处于战争第五年的国家，税收收入占GDP的比例达到了34%。想象一下，很少有国家能达到这个数字的一半——
玛格丽特·布伦南： 而且还是在战争期间。
格奥尔基耶娃： ——而那些国家甚至没有处于战争中。所以我们一直与乌克兰站在一起，因为他们证明了自己是负责任的合作伙伴，因此他们理应获得国际社会的金融支持。展望今年，这将是至关重要的一年。希望和平谈判能带来积极结果。无论能否实现和平，乌克兰都将继续需要国际社会的支持。正因如此，我们为乌克兰制定了新的援助计划。我们正在与乌克兰合作，推动他们继续推进改革，这样他们才能获得国际社会，尤其是欧洲的大规模金融支持。我可以告诉您，我曾在零下华氏度的严寒中去过那里，这个国家依然在正常运转。人们起床，在严寒中去上班，他们展现出了维护社会稳定的决心。他们理应得到我们所有人的支持。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 总裁先生/女士，还有很多热点问题想和您探讨，但今天的采访必须到此结束了。谢谢您。
格奥尔基耶娃： 谢谢。
Full transcript: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,” April 12, 2026
2026-04-12T11:18:41-0400 / CBS News
The following is the full transcript of an interview with Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, that aired on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” on April 12, 2026.
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MARGARET BRENNAN: Director, thank you so much for making time for us. We’re in an incredible moment right now. How do you calculate the economic shock from this Mideast war?
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: We look at the size of the impact and the duration of impact. And what I can tell you is that this shock is large. Thirteen percent of oil, 20% of gas that would have flown in the world is now stuck for five weeks and counting. It is global. Everybody uses energy. Everybody feels the pinch of prices going up. And it is asymmetric. It affects different countries differently. If you are in the vicinity of the conflict, it’s a big hit on you. If you are an oil importer, it is a big hit on you. If you have no reserves to protect yourself, you are in a very tough situation. We are running scenarios depending on the duration of the war. Now we have hopes for peace that would improve the conditions for everybody, but we are also looking at impact on infrastructure. A lot has been damaged, and it would take time to bring back to full operation.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So let’s pull that apart a little bit. It appears like Asia bore a lot of the economic impact here. South Korea, they’ve got a big computer chip industry. They have called on their citizens to conserve energy. India, they’re rationing energy. The Philippines had a national energy emergency. The Australian gas stations are running out of fuel. It seems like there’s a large part of the planet that’s really in pain.
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: Oh yes, people are hurting. They’re hurting because of sheer lack of quantities. If you are in the Philippines, you’re queuing the same way people were queuing here in the ’70s to fill your tank. They are hurting because they may be in need of helium, for semiconductors or for MRIs. And now–
MARGARET BRENNAN: And that comes out of Qatar. Out of the Middle East.
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: That comes out of Qatar, and now it is cut to size. They may be hurting because of fertilizers. Now is the planting season. If you are not getting fertilizers or not getting them at a reasonable price, we may see spike in food prices coming. They’re hurting because of remittances. Just think, how many people live in the Gulf, work in the Gulf, send money home to places like India and Bangladesh, and this money is not coming. They’re hurting because of transportation. I’ll tell you, my heart goes for Sri Lanka, a country that is coming out of a big shock, they were now affected because a third of flights to Sri Lanka go through the Gulf. Now, tourism is going to be- to be hammered. So for many, many reasons, countries are affected. And when you look at the size of the impact, it depends on how much your- your reliance on imports is, but it also depends on what is your fiscal position. Do you have capacity to absorb the shocks? Yes, who has this capacity? Poor, vulnerable countries, whether they’re in Asia or in Sub-Saharan Africa, they’re being hammered dramatically, and when we discuss our response, we will zero in on these highly vulnerable countries.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So the United States. Here Americans, they’re still spending, they’re still driving, but they have seen inflation go up, prices at the gas pump.
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: Right, I mean, the U.S. is in the category of countries that are somewhat less impacted, because U.S. is energy exporter. But as I said, everybody feels the pinch of prices going up. Why? This is a negative supply shocks. You have less energy, but the demand is still the same. What happens? Prices go up, and here in the United States, people have not quite yet seen inflation going down to target. We were projecting this to happen by early ’27. Now that may be somewhat delayed. And what does it mean? It means that people experience a tax on their income. Who is most affected? Of course, low income, part of the population.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Right. Well, at- at one point, oil prices surged nearly 50% because of this war in Iran, and you called it the largest disruption to global energy markets in modern history, as increases, as you said, to fertilizer, to other prices that are going to push up food. Do you see this impact stretching through 2026 even if we get a cease fire that sticks?
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: So the impact is baked in, because already the tankers that should have arrived in Asia have not arrived, right? So we already have that impact. But then on top of it, we have the infrastructure impact. Seventy-two energy facilities have been hit, one-third of them severe damage. You take the gas field in Qatar, it would take three to five years to reach its full capacity. That has significance. And then we have other infrastructure impacts, like refineries. If they don’t receive oil on a regular schedule, they have to shut down. When they shut down, to restart, that is with delay. So yes, we are going to see some drag of this crisis over the year. But if we have peace, of course, conditions are likely to improve faster. Above all, because confidence is going to benefit from the knowledge that there is a resolution of the fighting. Before- something that- that is very, very important to recognize. The world economy has been incredibly resilient. We have been hit by one shock and another and another. We were actually projecting a small upgrade for growth in 2026 had it not been for this war. Now we are going to have a downgrade, and the size of this downgrade will depend on these two things, duration and speed with which everything can come back to the same level of production that we had before.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, but just to put a fine point on it, when you’re- when people look at the effort to get even a ceasefire or some kind of peace deal, if they think, well, if this works, my prices are going to go back to where they were on February 27, the day before this war began. You’re saying no–
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: Not right away. It will take time.
MARGARET BRENNAN: It’s going to take- it is going to take awhile in 2026.
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: It will take- it will take some time, yes, and it will take more time for locations that are experiencing higher degree of disruption. And that’s why we need to remember the asymmetry of this shock. And spare a thought for these destinations where it would be still a matter of scarcity of supplies for some time.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And we’re hearing from European airlines issues with access to jet fuel. You’re talking about Asia there. People are going to see their airline ticket prices elevated. They’re going to experience this for some time.
KRISTALINA GEORGIEVA: Yes, the one good thing that we need to remember is that whenever we have an energy shock, we improve. Every energy shock in the past would lead to two things: more energy efficiency and more diversification of energy supplies.
MARGARET BRENNAN: More green energy.
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: More green energy. We- we- we can show how that goes up. You get the shock, and then say, wait a minute, what can I do to reduce the impact? That would come. The problem is it would take a year and year and a half, two years. In meanwhile, people and businesses will be hurting.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So what is the IMF doing right now to soften the blow of this crisis for those who are hardest hit?
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: Well, the first thing we do is to give good advice to countries. The- at a moment like this, everybody rushes to take action, and sometimes it’s good, and sometimes not so good. Don’t impose restrictions on your trade with petrol products. Why? Because if we make the situation worse, prices would go up even more. We are telling countries, if you are to be helping people and businesses, do it in a targeted manner, do it carefully, because the world has a problem with fiscal space. All these shocks have led us to borrow more, and it has increased the cost of this borrowing on budgets. So if you are to help, help the most vulnerable, target your support, and do it on a temporary basis.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So we have seen so many shocks, as you said, two major military actions in Iran. You’ve got the war in Ukraine still going on. You have the trade war, all of this still just coming out of COVID. Have you been surprised that we are not in a global recession, and the United States is not headed for recession?
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: We were not so surprised for one reason. What we have seen over these last shocks is that the world is building resilience to it, and the resilience is a product of three things. Number one, across the world, governments have pulled out of managing the economy, managing companies, and let the private sector do the job. Private sector is more agile, more adaptable. So when we are hit, the response is faster and more efficient. Two, we have seen over the last decades many countries, emerging market economies, taking actions to strengthen their fundamentals. Independent central banks, fiscal councils, that leads to good policies that protect countries, especially at the time of a shock. And number three, innovation. Look at the technological transformation–
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes.
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: –that is taking place in the world. It’s incredible. So all these two things have buffered our world against recession. Now, we are not immune against recession, Margaret, so we still have to be careful, to follow good policies and to keep our institutions in good health, to protect us.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, the world’s two largest economies are set for a meeting next month, mid May, President Trump and President Xi. Do you think that that trade war is cooling off? How concerned are you?
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: It is very good that the two largest economies found a way to reduce trade frictions. We see it in the performance of both and when they do well, there are positive spillovers for the rest of the world. So in this sense, we very much encourage discussions that lead to reducing the trade tensions between these two large economies, but also they set up a good example for the rest of the world, a trade war has no winners.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Did you- do you think that- that global economists really overestimated the negative impact of the Trump tariffs?
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: Ah, very good question. So the Fund, when the tariffs came, was among the very few institutions that were not- not projecting recession. We did project some slow down in growth. We did see some slow down in growth–
MARGARET BRENNAN: So it’d be some- somewhat disruptive?
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: We thought it would be somewhat disruptive. It was somewhat disruptive. But then what happened was an adjustment. Adjustment in the United States, with agreements that have reduced the pressure that tariffs would put here and on the rest of the world, and we saw the rest of the world saying, okay, let’s see how we can trade more with each other. Massive increase in trade agreements, more attention to regional trade, if you look at the place like–
MARGARET BRENNAN: You’re saying turning away from the U.S.?
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: Well, the U.S. is saying we want to- to have an economy that is mostly based on investing at home, having manufacturing at home. That’s a choice that the country is making. Other countries are looking into their economic future. Small, open economies, they have no choice. They have to find ways to trade with each other, because otherwise it will be very costly for their people. So the developments are relatively calming in a sense that we see trade like water. You put an obstacle, it goes around it.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, it’s interesting, because when we were speaking recently to the head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, who used to run the IMF. She told us the attraction of the dollar has eroded. She said you need geopolitical credibility, rule of law, strong institutions and a strong military, and the volatility fueled by the Trump administration, she said it hasn’t been helpful. Would you agree with that? You see an erosion in the trust and confidence in the American dollar?
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: What we see is that the huge amount of transactions are indoors. We see assets indoors. We actually see the rest of the world rushing to the United States to invest here. Why? Because of the high productivity growth and the strength of the U.S. economy. At the same time, the world is more multi-polar, there are more centers of economic significance. And as a result, naturally, we see some shift towards diversification of reserves that countries are holding. And I believe that given the depth of the U.S. capital markets, given the strength of the U.S. economy, the attractiveness of the U.S. economy, 75% of financial assets are here. That means that the role of the dollar is and remains quite significant.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Because we’ve seen like the Wall Street Journal, for example, talk about Iran charging tolls for, you know, boats that go through the Strait of Hormuz, they’re charging cryptocurrency, or the Chinese currency to avoid our sanctions.
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: Of course. Of course, we are going to see, in a world that has multiple centers of gravity, we are going to see different choices. When we have the evolution, or actually the revolution of digital money, of course, there would be shift in that direction. The question is, how big is the size? And does it mean that somehow we would wake up tomorrow, you and I, and we say, oh, what happened? You know, our savings are in dollars. Should we worry about that? Don’t worry.
MARGARET BRENNAN: I want to come back to technology, because you raised it, and I want you to clear up that point. You’ve said, with the growth of AI, artificial intelligence, in advanced economies in particular, it looks like a tsunami about to hit the labor market. That’s a scary thing for a lot of people to digest. How disruptive is this going to be to our way of life?
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: And digest we must because AI is happening. I’m telling my staff at the fund, AI or die. It is transforming the way we all work. It is very significant. And frankly, I don’t think that we are ready. When we look at the impact of AI on labor markets, what do we find? We find that already, one in 10 jobs here in the United States requires new skills, and it pays more. When it pays more, what do people do with the money? They go out and spend in restaurants, in gyms. That increases demand for low skilled labor. But the middle, the jobs that are routinely starter jobs for young people, this middle is shrinking fast.
MARGARET BRENNAN: The new college graduates. They’re having problems.
[CROSS TALK]
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: The new college graduates. So when we crank the numbers, the total employment actually went slightly up, but because of low skilled jobs. So, are young people dreaming to be baristas? I don’t think so. How can we prepare young people to be entrepreneurs, to be agile to changes in the labor market? How can we change the mindset, including in our education system, for a world of constant learn- learning and permanent change? That requires attention. And here is my big worry, what I see in the world today is attention deficit disorder. We cannot halt on a topic long enough, and AI is this topic, unless we concentrate on understanding labor market impact, how we need to change education, how we need to change the business environment, I think we would find ourselves with winners, big time, and many, many losers. The ability of AI to increase inequality, to open up this accordion of opportunities widely is very significant, both within countries and across countries. So we better focus.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Get ready. Well, CBS has learned that there was an urgent meeting held by the Treasury Secretary and the Fed chair just a few days ago with Wall Street leaders to discuss specifically AI and this new model from Anthropic. There’s deep concern. Are you concerned? Why are they scared?
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: Well, because we get into cybersecurity, and the risks have been growing exponentially. Yes, we are concerned. We are very keen to see more attention to the guardrails that are necessary to protect financial stability in a world of AI, and I am–
MARGARET BRENNAN: Those don’t really exist right now.
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: I’m- I’m- we don’t have the ability to – us as a world – to protect the international monetary system against massive cyber risks. We have to work on that. We have a responsibility at the Fund. We are actually working with our members to bring that common understanding of what the risks are, how they can be managed, because time is not our friend on this one.
MARGARET BRENNAN: No, but you need institutions like the Fed and the central banks to figure out–
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA:Yes. Yes.
MARGARET BRENNAN: –How to manage the risk of cyber attacks – hacking, as people would know it?
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: We do– we do need the key institutions for financial stability – and of course, major central banks are among those – we need them to be very attentive. And we also need them to work together. Because yes, this is an issue that has been addressed here in the United States, but it is an issue that easily can present itself in other parts of the world, and that is why we need people to cooperate.
MARGARET BRENNAN: To cooperate. Well, the president of this country continues to question the value of multilateral institutions. The IMF is one of those created out of the ashes of World War Two. Do you think that the global financial order does need to be rebooted a little bit? Because you’re talking about a small portion of it, but is there truth to that idea that we need to really reboot these systems, these international institutions, to meet the moment?
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: The world is changing very rapidly, and change is unstoppable. Therefore, institutions like the IMF, we have to lean forward, and we need to take the responsibility to be at par with this change. What does it mean for us? It means to identify key risks and opportunities for the world economy and then bring our membership to work on those. Let me make a simple point. Yes, we need to upgrade the international monetary system. While we do that, we also have to protect the assets we have. So what is our asset proposition? We are the only institution that takes the pulse of each and every economy on this planet – big, small, rich, poor – and then presents a picture of what is happening in the world for everybody to see. And we are the only institution that can rescue countries in trouble. We can come up with large financial support on a dime. And we have done it. We will continue to do it. In a world of more frequent shocks, we need an anchor of stability, and this is what the fund is. When it was created, the world was a calmer place. Now it is not–
MARGARET BRENNAN: You think the world was a calmer place back when this was created?
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: Well, when it was created, remember, people traveled on ships to come to the annual meeting–
MARGARET BRENNAN: The speed of change, okay.
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: Now we are in a much, much more rapidly changing world, and in this world, you need even more to have an anchor, an institution that protects you, and, of course, an institution that works with others, not on its own, to deliver that stability in a sea of constant change. I very often, Margaret, I very often feel like a captain on a ship in rough waters. And rough waters we will have.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Quickly on that – the war in Europe and Ukraine. The IMF has helped Ukraine quite a lot. You’re the second largest foreign donor behind the United States. Kyiv is having some problems, though, getting their own domestic political order under control. What can you do to help them? Because they are about to run out of money.
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: Let me start recognizing that they have done a lot. This is a country, fifth year in a war, that collects in tax revenues, 34 percent to GDP. Just imagine how very few countries collect even half of this–
MARGARET BRENNAN: In the middle of a war.
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: –and they are not in a war. So we- we are standing with Ukraine because they have proven to be a responsible partner. So they earn the financial support they get. When I look into this year, it is a very critical year. Hopefully peace negotiations would bring a positive outcome. With or without that outcome, the country- the country would continue to need international support. And for this reason, we have a new program for Ukraine. We are working with Ukraine so they can continue on this path of reforms that gives them the credibility to earn massive financial support from the rest of the world, especially from Europe. I can tell you that I was there in the midst of very cold winter, minus zero degree Fahrenheit, and the country is functional. People get up, they go to work in a freezing weather. They show determination to keep their society strong. They deserve to be- to be supported by the rest of us.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Director, there’s so many more hot spots to talk to you about, but I have to leave it there for today. Thank you.
MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: Thank you.
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