2026年4月9日 12:49 UTC / 路透社
节点运行失败
People shop for groceries at a store in New York City, U.S., July 15, 2025. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon
华盛顿4月9日路透电 — 美国2月通胀符合预期上升，且随着与伊朗的冲突，3月通胀可能进一步走高，这一趋势预计会让美联储在一段时间内暂缓降息。
美国商务部经济分析局周四表示，个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数环比上涨0.4%，1月涨幅未作修正，为0.3%。路透社调查的经济学家此前预测PCE价格指数环比上涨0.4%。
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截至2月的12个月里，PCE通胀率为2.8%，1月涨幅与之相同。
受去年政府停摆影响，经济分析局的数据发布工作仍在补位。冲突爆发前通胀本已高企，这在很大程度上源于唐纳德·特朗普总统的进口关税政策。
美以联军与伊朗的冲突推高了全球油价，全美汽油零售均价飙升至每加仑4美元以上，这是三年多来的首次。
经济学家预计，这场2月底爆发的冲突对通胀的后续影响将在3月数据中体现得更为明显。特朗普周二宣布实施为期两周的停火协议，条件是伊朗重新开放遭封锁的霍尔木兹海峡，这一事件也影响了化肥及其他商品的运输。预计供应链中断将推高食品价格。
剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分后，2月PCE价格指数环比上涨0.4%，连续第三个月维持这一涨幅。截至2月的12个月里，所谓的核心PCE通胀率为3.0%，1月为3.1%。
同比核心PCE通胀率放缓，反映出去年同期的高基数数据已不再纳入计算。
美国央行以PCE价格指数作为2%通胀目标的衡量标准。经济学家表示，需要连续多月PCE通胀环比上涨0.2%，才能将通胀拉回目标水平。美联储3月17日至18日政策会议的纪要于周三发布，纪要显示越来越多的美联储政策制定者上月认为，可能需要加息以应对通胀。
纪要还显示，“与会者指出，中东地区长期冲突可能会导致能源价格持续上涨，而这些更高的投入成本更有可能传导至核心通胀。”
美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%区间。今年降息的可能性已大幅降低。
2月支出增长部分源于高物价。占美国经济活动三分之二以上的消费者支出环比上涨0.5%，1月涨幅为0.3%。经济学家此前预测支出增长0.5%。
油价上涨可能会让消费者支出从其他品类转移，但今年大额退税将为低收入家庭提供一定缓冲。3月的股市市值蒸发约3.2万亿美元，这可能会迫使高收入家庭削减开支。而高收入群体一直是消费和整体经济增长的主要推动力。
露西娅·穆蒂卡尼 报道；千住律子 编辑
本报守则：路透社汤姆森路透信托原则
US PCE inflation picks up in February; consumer spending solid
April 9, 2026 12:49 PM UTC / Reuters
节点运行失败
People shop for groceries at a store in New York City, U.S., July 15, 2025. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon
WASHINGTON, April 9 (Reuters) – U.S. inflation increased as expected in February and likely rose further in March amid the war with Iran, a trend that is expected to discourage the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates for a while.
The personal consumption expenditures price index climbed 0.4% after an unrevised 0.3 gain in January, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PCE price index rising 0.4%.
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In the 12 months through February, PCE inflation advanced 2.8% after increasing by the same margin in January.
The BEA is still catching up on data releases following delays caused by last year’s government shutdown. Inflation was already elevated before the war, largely because of President Donald Trump’s import duties.
The U.S.-Israel war with Iran boosted global oil prices and sent the national average gasoline retail price soaring above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years.
Economists expect the inflation fallout from the conflict, which started at the end of February, would be more pronounced in March’s data. Trump on Tuesday announced a two-week ceasefire on condition of Tehran reopening the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, which has also affected shipments of fertilizers and other goods. The disruptions are expected to raise food prices.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index increased 0.4% in February, rising by the same margin for a third straight month. In the 12 months through February, so-called core PCE inflation advanced 3.0% following a 3.1% increase in January.
The slowdown in year-on-year core PCE inflation reflected last year’s high readings dropping out of the calculation.
The U.S. central bank tracks the PCE price measures for its 2% inflation target. Economists say monthly PCE inflation needs to increase 0.2% for a sustained period to bring inflation back to target. Minutes of the Fed’s March 17-18 policy meeting released on Wednesday showed a growing group of Federal Reserve policymakers felt last month that interest rate hikes might be needed to counter inflation.
They also showed “participants noted that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would likely lead to more persistent increases in energy prices and that these higher input costs would be more likely to pass through to core inflation.”
The Fed left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. The odds of a rate cut this year have greatly diminished.
High prices accounted for some of the rise in spending in February. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.5% after increasing 0.3% in January. Economists had forecast spending advancing 0.5%.
Expensive gasoline could pull spending away from other categories, though large tax refunds this year could provide lower-income households with some cushion. The war wiped off about $3.2 trillion from the stock market in March, which could force higher-income households to cut back on spending. They have been the main drivers of spending and the overall economy.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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