2026-04-09T04:00:55.465Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
斯蒂芬·科林森 分析
发布于 2026年4月9日 美国东部时间00:00
2026年4月8日，以色列空袭黎巴嫩贝鲁特居民区后，浓烟升起。
侯赛姆·什巴罗/安纳多卢通讯社/盖蒂图片社
令人遗憾的事实是，中东地区的停火协议并不总能制止战火。
唐纳德·特朗普总统主导的与伊朗停火行动，已经印证了这一点。停火生效首日，人们甚至难以确认停火是否真正存在。
混乱局面是多层面的。
在以色列对黎巴嫩发动大规模袭击后，德黑兰宣称己方遭遇违约，美国、以色列和伊朗三国对停火协议的达成条款未能达成一致。与此同时，美伊双方对霍尔木兹海峡是否开放各执一词。海湾国家则报告称遭遇了这场战争以来最猛烈的伊朗袭击之一，触发了多起无人机和导弹警报。
紧张局势不仅破坏了停火协议的稳定性，更暴露了双方在认知和信任上的巨大鸿沟——本周末，双方将在巴基斯坦举行会谈，试图将为期两周的停火转化为更持久的和平协议。
美伊双方的言辞和公开诉求表明，这对敌对双方在谈判桌上将要求对方在伊朗核计划、伊朗宣称的导弹研发权等议题上全面投降。
这些分歧意味着，如果美国最高代表、副总统JD·万斯能在此次谈判中取得比明确停火条款更多的成果，都将是一项重大成就。但风险却实实在在存在：谈判可能反而暴露双方分歧，彻底摧毁整个进程。
鉴于此，再加上停火协议开局不稳，特朗普总统本周宣称美伊将合作发掘伊朗的浓缩铀库存，甚至可能合作运营霍尔木兹海峡的油轮以获取利润的言论，听上去更像是天方夜谭。
而伊朗在当日晚些时候宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡——这一全球石油出口的关键咽喉要道——则表明，伊朗打算充分利用特朗普发动战争后新增的战略筹码。
双方争相标榜胜利
在和平进程初期，各方各执一词或许不无益处。这或许能为交战双方提供政治空间，让双方都宣称取得了胜利，并为后续的谈判和妥协留出余地。
华盛顿和德黑兰周三都在争相标榜胜利。伊朗政权支持者走上伊朗首都街头庆祝，焚烧美国和以色列国旗。在华盛顿，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特试图强化总统的形象，她表示：“永远不要低估特朗普总统推进美国利益、促成和平的能力。”
2026年4月8日周三，在伊朗德黑兰伊斯兰革命广场，亲政府示威者手持伊朗国旗和最高领袖穆赫塔巴·哈梅内伊的海报。
瓦希德·萨莱米/美联社
特朗普政府有充分理由认为，40天的持续轰炸严重削弱了伊朗的导弹能力，摧毁了其海军和空军，并对其军事工业综合体造成了严重破坏。然而，白宫宣称此次行动实现了“政权更迭”的说法，却被伊朗周三的强硬态度打脸。尽管伊朗的浓缩铀库存可能在去年美国空袭中被掩埋在废墟之下，但它们的存在意味着未来仍将构成潜在威胁。
白宫坚称，媒体报道的伊朗谈判严苛条件并不属实，特朗普掌握着与德黑兰不同的、更具可行性的谈判材料。尽管越来越多证据显示，目前几乎没有油轮通过该海峡，莱维特仍表示伊朗已私下向白宫通报海峡确实处于开放状态。
可以善意地将白宫的这种做法称为“灵活性”，这或许是维持脆弱停火协议所必需的。但这也是一种显而易见的政治手段，旨在维护特朗普在这场民调中极不受欢迎的战争中取得了伟大胜利的假象。“其他总统只会拖延时间、推诿责任。特朗普总统创造了历史，”国防部长皮特·赫格斯说道。将这一评价与停火首日发生的事件联系起来，显然十分牵强。
前路多舛
在巴基斯坦主持的计划中的会谈前夕，特朗普团队面临的问题层出不穷。巴基斯坦一直利用其与德黑兰和华盛顿的友谊，寻求实现突破。
首当其冲的是以色列在黎巴嫩的军事行动，这甚至可能在会谈开始前就将其彻底破坏。以色列对当地伊朗支持的真主党武装发动的猛烈袭击，似乎是在利用针对伊朗的行动间隙发动袭击。德黑兰坚称这些袭击违反了停火协议，并以此为借口封锁霍尔木兹海峡。华盛顿则坚称黎巴嫩不在停火协议涵盖范围内。万斯试图缓和局势，坚称伊朗是对停火协议范围存在善意误解的受害者。
2026年4月8日，以色列空袭黎巴嫩南部城市提尔郊区阿巴西耶区域，一栋建筑燃起火球。
考纳特·哈朱/法新社/盖蒂图片社
但如果一方连停火协议的关键条款都不知情，这对刚刚起步的外交进程来说无疑是个糟糕的信号。这种分歧也反映出目前没有任何正式协议来巩固停火。而以色列暗示黎巴嫩战争与对伊战争是两码事，这在德黑兰看来是不可接受的。周三，以色列发动了100多次空袭，造成至少182人死亡，袭击目标直指真主党——这是伊朗在地区势力根基的关键代理人。
这种凶险的地区局势解释了为何人们担心停火协议无法维持到本周末。
即便会谈能够举行，这也 likely 只是漫长而曲折进程的开端，将考验特朗普及其团队的外交技巧和持久力。
与伊朗的谈判通常都令人精疲力竭且旷日持久。在此次事件中，伊朗手握霍尔木兹海峡的控制权——这张牌足以挟持全球经济。它还可以将这一新获得的杠杆作用变成摇钱树，对油轮征收税费；将其作为谈判中打击美国的武器；或是作为换取美国解除制裁的筹码。
此次谈判的议题远比奥巴马政府时期推动与德黑兰达成核协议时复杂得多。当时的进程耗时18个月。而特朗普两届任期内，丝毫没有迹象表明他有如此耐心。这位惯于用房地产大亨思维看待问题的总统，认为伊朗和大多数对手一样，急切地想要达成协议，这或许也是对其意识形态根深蒂固的对手的误判。
“你不可能去巴基斯坦待几天就能达成协议，这种可能性为零，”曾担任美国高级国家安全官员、现为CNN全球事务分析师的布雷特·麦古克说道。
在接受CNN记者卡西·亨特采访时，麦古克建议放缓谈判进程，因为如果没有预先拟定的外交协议，谈判可能会“破裂”。
鉴于战争导致多名伊朗高级领导人丧生，包括阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊，政治局势发生了变化，谈判成功的前景更加渺茫。幸存的官员在经历了一个多月美以军队的全力打击后，可能会认为自己占据上风。
战争爆发之初，许多观察家都难以理解特朗普如何能走出自己亲手陷入的地缘政治困境。但目前没有迹象表明，通过另一条外交途径能缓解他的困境。
A teetering ceasefire bodes ill for treacherous US-Iran talks ahead
2026-04-09T04:00:55.465Z / CNN
Analysis by Stephen Collinson
PUBLISHED Apr 9, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Smoke rises over a residential area following Israeli attacks on Beirut, Lebanon, on April 8, 2026.
Houssam Shbaro/Anadolu/Getty Images
The sad truth is that Middle East ceasefires don’t always stop the shooting.
President Donald Trump’s halt to fighting with Iran already fits the pattern. On its first day, it was hard to verify that it existed at all.
The confusion was multi-layered.
The US, Israel and Iran could not agree on the terms on which the ceasefire was forged, after a huge Israeli assault in Lebanon led Tehran to claim a violation. Washington and Tehran, meanwhile, offered conflicting accounts of whether the Strait of Hormuz was open or closed. And Gulf states reported one of the most intense Iranian attacks of the war, which set off multiple drone and missile alerts.
The tensions did not only destabilize the truce. They highlighted the vast gaps in perception and trust before talks in Pakistan this weekend meant to convert a two-week pause in the fighting to a more permanent deal.
Rhetoric and published demands from both the US and Iran indicate that the foes will enter the process demanding almost total capitulation from one another on issues such as Iran’s nuclear program and its claimed right to build missiles.
Those differences mean that it would be a major achievement if the top US representative, Vice President JD Vance, emerges with anything more than clarified ceasefire terms. There is a substantial risk the opposite will happen and that the talks will lay bare splits that could tear the process apart.
With this in mind, and against the backdrop of the ceasefire’s shaky start, the president’s claims this week that the US and Iran would work together to dig up Tehran’s enriched uranium — and might run a joint venture to profit from oil tankers heading through the Strait of Hormuz — looked like fantasy.
And Iran’s declaration by the end of the day that it had closed the strait — a major global oil exporting choke point — was a signal that it intends to fully exploit a new form of leverage that it lacked before Trump started the war.
Dueling victory laps
Conflicting claims can be useful at the beginning of a peace process. They may give warring parties political space to each claim victory and to maneuver for talks and compromises ahead.
Washington and Tehran both took victory laps on Wednesday. Regime supporters took to the streets of the Iranian capital to celebrate and to burn US and Israeli flags. In Washington, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt sought to bolster her boss’s image by saying, “Never underestimate President Trump’s ability to successfully advance America’s interests and broker peace.”
Pro-government demonstrators hold Iranian flags and a poster of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei at the Enqelab-e-Eslami, or Islamic Revolution, Square, in Tehran, Iran, on Wednesday, April 8, 2026.
Vahid Salemi/AP
The Trump administration has a fair argument that 40 days of relentless bombing badly degraded Iran’s missile capabilities, shattered its navy and air force, and did serious damage to its military industrial complex. Yet White House claims to have pulled off “regime change” were belied by Iran’s defiance on Wednesday. And while Tehran’s enriched uranium stocks might be under rubble following US air strikes last year, their presence means they will remain a potential threat in future.
The White House insisted that media reports correctly quoting a draconian set of Iranian negotiating points were false and that Trump was operating from different material from Tehran that he found more workable. And while evidence mounted that few oil tankers had yet transited through the strait, Leavitt said that Iran had privately communicated to the White House that it was indeed open.
What might kindly be referred to as flexibility on the part of the White House may have been necessary to keep the fragile foundation of a ceasefire viable. But it was also a transparent attempt to preserve the political conceit that Trump had won a great victory in a war that polls show is deeply unpopular. “Other presidents marked time and kicked the can down the road. President Trump made history,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said. It’s tough to square such an assessment with the events on the first day of the ceasefire.
Trouble to come
Problems are piling up for the Trump team ahead of the planned talks under the auspices of Pakistan, which has been using its friendships in Tehran and Washington to chase a breakthrough.
First up is the question of the Israeli offensive in Lebanon that could scupper the talks even before they begin. The intense attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters there suggested Israel was taking advantage of a lull in operations over Iran. Tehran insisted that the attacks were a breach of the ceasefire and used them to justify closing the Strait of Hormuz. Washington insisted that Lebanon was not included in the deal. Vance tried to ease the situation by insisting that Iran had fallen prey to a good-faith misunderstanding about the scope of the ceasefire.
A fireball rises from a building hit by an Israeli airstrike in the area of Abbasiyeh, on the outskirts of the southern Lebanese city of Tyre, on April 8, 2026.
Kawnat Haju/AFP/Getty Images
But it’s a poor reflection on the nascent diplomatic process when one side is unaware of a critical part of a ceasefire. The disconnect also reflects the lack of any formal agreement bolstering the truce. And the Israeli implication that the Lebanon war is separate from the one with Iran is a nonstarter in Tehran. More than 100 strikes on Wednesday that killed at least 182 people targeted Hezbollah — a proxy critical to Iran’s regional power base.
Such treacherous regional dynamics explain fears the ceasefire won’t endure until the weekend.
If the meeting does happen, it’s likely to be only the start of a tortuous process that will test the skill and staying power of Trump and his team.
Negotiations with Iran are typically exhausting and prolonged. The Islamic Republic, in this case, seems to have a strong hand with its control over the Strait of Hormuz — a card it can use to hold the global economy hostage. It can also use this new leverage as a cash cow to impose levies on tankers; as a cudgel to punish the US in negotiations; or as a carrot to secure the lifting of US sanctions.
This is a far more complex suite of issues than those encountered in the Obama administration’s successful push for a nuclear deal with Tehran. That process took 18 months. There’s been no sign across Trump’s two terms that he has anywhere near that kind of patience. The habitual assumptions of a real estate magnate president that Iran, like most adversaries, is just itching to make a deal may also be a misjudgment of his deeply ideological opponents.
“There is a zero likelihood that you’re going to go into Pakistan for a couple of days and come out with an agreement,” said Brett McGurk, a former senior US national security official who is now a CNN global affairs analyst.
Speaking with CNN’s Kasie Hunt, McGurk advised slowing the process because, without pre-cooked diplomatic agreements, there could be a “breakdown.”
Prospects for success are even more elusive given the altered political conditions caused by the deaths of many top Iranian leaders in the war, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Surviving officials, who’ve absorbed the full might of the US and Israeli militaries for over a month, may conclude they have the upper hand.
While the war was raging, many observers struggled to see how Trump could navigate out of a geopolitical corner he’d made for himself. But there’s no sign his dilemma will eased by pursing an alternative diplomatic track.
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