2026-04-02T23:16:35.015Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：黑利·布里茨基、娜塔莎·伯特兰、吉姆·西乌托、塔尔·沙莱夫
21分钟前发布 | 2026年4月2日，美国东部时间晚上7:16发布
美国中央司令部/路透社
据三位熟悉相关情报的消息人士向CNN透露，尽管过去五周美国和以色列持续对伊朗军事目标实施每日空袭，伊朗仍有约半数导弹发射器完好无损，其武器库中仍留存数千架单向攻击无人机。
其中一位消息人士在谈及伊朗时表示：“他们仍完全做好了在整个地区制造巨大破坏的准备。”
美国的情报评估总数可能包含目前无法打击的发射器，比如被空袭掩埋但未被摧毁的发射器。
另外两位消息人士称，情报显示伊朗仍留存数千架无人机，约占该国无人机作战能力的50%。近期汇编的情报还显示，伊朗的海岸防御巡航导弹有很大一部分完好无损，这与美国的空袭行动重点一致——尽管美军打击了舰船，但并未将空中打击目标聚焦于沿海军事设施。这些巡航导弹是伊朗威胁霍尔木兹海峡航运的核心能力之一。
与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普及其政府官员公开宣称的军事全面胜利评估相比，这份情报展现了伊朗持续作战能力的更复杂图景。
在周三晚间对全国发表的讲话中，特朗普称伊朗“发射导弹和无人机的能力已大幅受限，其武器工厂和火箭发射器正被夷为平地，几乎所剩无几”。
据美国中央司令部数据，截至周三，美军已在伊朗境内打击超过12300个目标。消息人士称，情报显示美军已削弱伊朗的军事能力，包括伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊和伊朗国家安全委员会负责人阿里·拉里贾尼在内的多名高级领导人已在美以空袭中被击毙。
根据情报，除导弹发射器外，伊朗还保有大量导弹。
在公开表态中，五角大楼强调的是伊朗发射的导弹总数减少，而非被摧毁的数量。美国国防部长皮特·赫格斯瑟在3月19日的新闻发布会上表示：“针对我军的弹道导弹袭击自冲突开始以来下降了90%，单向攻击无人机，也就是自杀式无人机，同样下降了90%。”
埃里克·马莫尔/盖蒂图片社
针对此次报道的置评请求，白宫发言人安娜·凯利表示：“匿名消息人士急切地想要攻击特朗普总统，诋毁我们美军为实现‘史诗之怒行动’目标所付出的卓越努力。”
“事实如下：伊朗的弹道导弹和无人机袭击下降了90%，其海军已被歼灭，三分之二的生产设施遭到破坏或摧毁，美国和以色列已在伊朗上空取得压倒性空中优势，”她说道。“这个恐怖政权正遭受军事重创，其糟糕的处境每日都在恶化——他们唯一的希望就是与特朗普政府达成协议，永远放弃核野心。否则，他们将遭受前所未有的沉重打击。”
一位政府官员补充称，伊朗的弹道导弹正被快速摧毁。
以色列、海湾国家以及美军人员仍持续面临导弹和无人机的常规袭击。
五角大楼发言人肖恩·帕内尔驳斥了CNN的报道，称其“完全错误”。
“美军已对伊朗政权实施了一系列毁灭性打击，”帕内尔说道。“我们在实现军事目标方面已远超预定时间表：摧毁伊朗的导弹库、歼灭其海军、消灭其恐怖代理武装，并确保伊朗永远无法获得核武器。”
一位熟悉美国情报评估的消息人士和一位以色列消息人士透露，以色列军方官员认为伊朗仍可运作的发射器数量要低得多，约为20%至25%。以色列在统计幸存发射器时，未将被掩埋或藏于洞穴和隧道中无法使用的发射器计算在内。
周三，特朗普将美军行动结束的时间表定为两到三周。
第一位审查过美国情报评估的消息人士称，考虑到伊朗仍有大量可用装备，这一目标并不现实。
“我们可以持续给他们造成重创，这一点我毫不怀疑，但如果你认为这场行动能在两周内完成，那你一定是疯了，”该消息人士说道。
赫格斯瑟本周在新闻发布会上表示，伊朗的火力仍在持续减弱。
“没错，他们仍会发射一些导弹，但我们会将其击落，”他说道。“值得注意的是，过去24小时伊朗发射的敌方导弹和无人机数量达到了最低值。他们会转入地下，但我们会找到他们。”
法蒂玛·谢拜尔/美联社
两位熟悉近期评估报告的消息人士告诉CNN，转入地下是发射器未进一步被摧毁的主要原因。伊朗长期以来将其发射器藏于庞大的隧道和洞穴网络中——几十年来一直在为类似冲突做准备——这使得它们极难被锁定。两位消息人士称，伊朗成功地对移动平台进行射击并转移，使其难以追踪，这与美军在伊朗主要代理武装也门胡塞武装身上遇到的挑战类似。
美国企业研究所关键威胁项目中东业务经理安妮卡·甘泽维尔德表示，美国和以色列已越来越多地针对这些地下设施的隧道入口以及用于重新进入这些设施的设备，如推土机和其他重型装备，展开打击。
此次最新情报评估发布之际，美国正努力重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，并私下承认无法保证在战争结束前重新开放这条关键航道。第一位消息人士称，沿海巡航导弹能力之所以基本完好，是因为它们并非美军空袭行动的重点，美军仅将火力集中在可打击地区盟友的目标上。但这些能力也可能已转入地下，使其难以被发现。
尽管伊朗海军已基本被歼灭，但第一位消息人士称，隶属于伊斯兰革命卫队的独立海军仍保留了约一半的作战能力。第二位消息人士称，伊朗革命卫队仍拥有“数百艘，甚至数千艘小型船只和无人水面舰艇”。
截至周三，美国中央司令部在一份公开新闻稿中称，已有超过155艘伊朗船只遭到损坏或摧毁。但甘泽维尔德表示，目前尚不清楚美军所称的被摧毁的伊朗船只具体指哪支海军力量的舰艇。
她指出，伊朗革命卫队海军主要负责在霍尔木兹海峡袭扰航运。
“确实仍有一些威胁存在——代理武装、无人机，而且伊朗在过去几天刚刚展示了其仍有能力瞄准海峡内的航运，”甘泽维尔德说道。“因此，如果我们想要彻底摧毁这些能力，还有很多目标需要打击。”
Exclusive: US intelligence assesses Iran maintains significant missile launching capability, sources say
2026-04-02T23:16:35.015Z / CNN
By Haley Britzky, Natasha Bertrand, Jim Sciutto, Tal Shalev
21 min ago
PUBLISHED Apr 2, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
A projectile approaches what US Central Command says is an Iranian missile launcher that was struck by US forces, at an unknown location, in this screen grab from a video released on March 9, 2026. A portion of the image was blurred before its release.
CENTCOM/Reuters
Roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers are still intact and thousands of one-way attack drones remain in Iran’s arsenal despite the daily pounding by US and Israeli strikes against military targets over the past five weeks, according to recent US intelligence assessments, three sources familiar with the intel told CNN.
“They are still very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region,” one of the sources said of Iran.
The US intelligence assessment total may include launchers that are currently inaccessible, such as those buried underground by strikes but not destroyed.
Thousands of Iranian drones still exist — roughly 50% of the country’s drone capabilities — two of the sources said the intelligence indicated. The intelligence, compiled in recent days, also showed a large percentage of Iran’s coastal defense cruise missiles were intact, the sources said, consistent with the US not focusing its air campaign on coastal military assets though they have been hitting ships. Those missiles serve as a key capability allowing Iran to threaten shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
The intelligence offers a more nuanced picture of Iran’s continuing capabilities compared to sweeping assessments of military victory offered publicly by President Donald Trump and administration officials.
In remarks to the nation on Wednesday evening, Trump said Iran’s “ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed, and their weapons factories and rocket launchers are being blown to pieces, very few of them left.”
As of Wednesday, the US has struck more than 12,300 targets inside Iran, according to US Central Command. The sources said the intelligence showed the US military has degraded Iran’s military capabilities, and key senior leaders have been killed in US and Israeli strikes, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s National Security Council.
In addition to the country’s missile launchers, Iran maintains a large number of missiles, according to the intelligence.
In public comments, the Pentagon has pointed to a reduction in the total number of missiles launched by Iran, rather than what has been destroyed. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said during a press briefing on March 19 that “ballistic missile attacks against our forces, down 90 percent since the start of the conflict, same with one way attack UAVs, think kamikaze drones, down 90 percent.”
Israeli soldiers stand near an Iranian missile embedded in the ground in the Palestinian village of Hares, in the West Bank, on March 24, 2026.
Erik Marmor/Getty Images
In response to questions for this story, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said that, “anonymous sources desperately want to attack President Trump and demean the incredible work of our United States Military in achieving the goals of Operation Epic Fury.”
“Here are the facts: Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks are down 90 percent, their navy is wiped out, two-thirds of their production facilities are damaged or destroyed, and the United States and Israel have overwhelming air dominance over Iran,” she said. “The terrorist regime is being decimated militarily and their dismal situation grows bleaker by the day – their only hope is to make a deal with President Trump’s administration and leave behind their nuclear ambitions for good. Otherwise, they will be hit harder than they’ve ever been hit before.”
An administration official added that Iran’s ballistic missiles are being destroyed rapidly.
Israel, countries in the Gulf, and US military personnel have continued to face regular barrages of missile and drone strikes.
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell disputed CNN’s reporting, calling it “completely wrong.”
“The United States military has delivered a crippling series of blows to the Iranian regime,” Parnell said. “We are far ahead of schedule on accomplishing our military objectives: destroy Iran’s missile arsenal, annihilate their Navy, destroy their terrorist proxies, and ensure Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon.”
Israeli military officials put the total number of operational Iranian launchers at a lower number, roughly 20-25%. Israel does not include launchers that have been buried or made inaccessible in caves and tunnels in their count of surviving launchers, said one of the sources familiar with the US’ intelligence assessment and an Israeli source.
On Wednesday, Trump put the timeline for finishing US operations at two to three weeks.
The first source who has reviewed the US intelligence assessment said such a goal was unrealistic, given how much remains on the playing field for Iran to use.
“We can keep f**king them up, I don’t doubt it, but you’re out of your mind if you think this will be done in two weeks,” the source said.
Hegseth said this week in a press briefing that Iran’s firepower is continuing to decrease.
“Yes, they will still shoot some missiles, but we will shoot them down,” he said. “Of note, the last 24 hours saw the lowest number of enemy missiles and drones fired by Iran. They will go underground, but we will find them.”
Workers inspect damage caused by a drone strike overnight at a hotel in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on March 12, 2026.
Fatima Shbair/AP
The ability to go underground is a primary reason why launchers have not been further degraded, two of the sources familiar with the recent assessment told CNN. Iran has long hid its launchers in extensive networks of tunnels and caves — preparing for conflict like this for decades — making them particularly difficult to target. Two of the sources said Iran has had success in shooting and moving the mobile platforms, making it difficult to track the launchers, similar to the challenges the US has had with the Houthis in Yemen, one of Iran’s primary proxy forces.
The US and Israel have increasingly targeted tunnel entrances to those underground facilities and equipment used to try to regain access to them, like bulldozers and other heavy equipment, Annika Ganzeveld, the Middle East Portfolio Manager for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute said.
The recent intelligence assessment also comes as the US has struggled to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, acknowledging privately that it cannot promise to reopen the crucial waterway before ending the war. The coastal cruise missile capabilities could be largely still intact because it hasn’t been the focus of the US military’s campaign, the first source said, instead narrowing its firepower on what can be fired at allies in the region. But those capabilities have also likely retreated underground, making them difficult to find.
And while Iran’s Navy has largely been destroyed, the first source said, the separate naval forces belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still retain roughly half of its capabilities. The second source said the IRGC still has “hundreds, if not thousands, of small boats and unmanned surface vessels left.”
As of Wednesday, CENTCOM said in a public release that more than 155 Iranian vessels have been damaged or destroyed. But Ganzeveld said it has been unclear when the US says it has destroyed Iranian vessels which Navy they’re referring to.
The IRGC Navy, she said, is largely the force responsible for harassing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
“There are certainly things that remain — the proxies, as well as the drones, and Iran recently demonstrated in the past couple of days that it still retains the ability to target shipping in the strait,” Ganzeveld said. “So there are definitely things that remain to be targeted if we want to completely destroy these capabilities.”
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