2026年3月31日 / 美国东部时间下午2:36 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示，他不确定与伊朗的战争是否会成为推动美国陷入经济衰退的“临界点”，但“对世界未来而言更重要的是，这场战争能顺利结束。”
“经济是一个庞大而复杂的整体，即便人工智能也无法参透，”戴蒙在接受《哥伦比亚广播公司晚间新闻》主播托尼·多库皮奥尔的采访时说道，“我告诉人们，任何发生的事情都只是压垮骆驼的一根稻草。说不定某天，某根稻草就会成为临界点，将我们推入衰退。但愿不会出现滞胀。”
戴蒙表示，“这场战争相当于压在骆驼背上的好几根稻草”，但“至于这是否会引发临界点，我无从得知。”
“我认为，对世界未来而言更重要的是，这场战争能顺利结束，”他说道。戴蒙驳斥了那些认为伊朗并非迫在眉睫威胁的观点，并举出伊朗的弹道导弹能力和核计划作为例证。
他表示，高油价会让许多美国人陷入困境，“这非常不幸”，并补充道“问题越快得到妥善解决越好。”
当被问及会对那些已经觉得美国正处于经济衰退的人们说些什么时，戴蒙表示：“对他们而言，或许确实如此……社会中有部分群体的日子并不好过，我完全承认这一点。”
当被问及美国是否需要控制并重开霍尔木兹海峡时，戴蒙表示：“这个问题我没有答案。”
“我在这里必须保持谦逊，”他说道，“我不知道军方掌握着怎样的情报。但我知道他们相当精明。”戴蒙表示，军方“已经制定了多套预案”，但他认为，如果不重开霍尔木兹海峡——这条承担着全球20%石油运输量的关键航道——就撤军，“这将对全球经济造成严重问题。”
杰米·戴蒙谈伊朗战争与经济衰退担忧
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/jamie-dimon-says-he-doesnt-know-if-iran-war-will-tip-economy-into-recession/
Jamie Dimon says he doesn’t know if Iran war will be “tipping point” for recession
March 31, 2026 / 2:36 PM EDT / CBS News
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said he doesn’t know whether the war with Iran will be a “tipping point” that pushes the U.S. into a recession, but “what’s more important to the future of the world is that the war successfully conclude.”
“The economy is one big, complex beast, and even AI can’t figure it out,” Dimon said in an interview with “CBS Evening News” anchor Tony Dokoupil. “I tell people anything that happens is a straw on the camel’s back. So maybe one day the straw’s gonna cause that tipping point and push us through a recession. Hopefully not stagflation.”
Dimon said “the war is a couple straws on that camel’s back,” but that “whether that causes a tipping point, I don’t know.”
“I think what’s more important for the future of the world is that this war successfully conclude,” he said. Dimon pushed back against those who argue that Iran wasn’t an imminent threat, citing its ballistic missile capabilities and its nuclear program.
He said it was “very unfortunate” that high gas prices would cause hardship for many Americans, and said “the sooner it gets properly resolved, the better.”
When asked what he’d say to people who already feel like America’s in a recession, Dimon said, “I think it is for them … there are parts of society that are not doing very well, and I completely acknowledge that.”
As to whether America needs to take control of and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Dimon said: “I don’t know the answer to that question.”
“I have to be a little humble here,” he said. “I don’t know what the military knows. I do know they’re quite smart.” Dimon said the military has “multiple plans on the books,” but said he thinks “it would be a real problem for the global economy” to leave without reopening the Strait of Hormuz — a key transit route for 20% of the world’s oil supplies.
Jamie Dimon on Iran war and recession fears
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/jamie-dimon-says-he-doesnt-know-if-iran-war-will-tip-economy-into-recession/
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