Rubio gains early momentum in hypothetical 2028 GOP primary race as Vance remains front-runner

March 30, 2026 2:12pm EDT / Fox News

Vance told Fox News that ‘Marco is my closest friend in the administration’ and dismissed media attempts to ‘create this conflict’

By Paul Steinhauser Fox News

Vice President JD Vance has long been seen as the heir apparent to President Donald Trump and his MAGA and America First base. While Vance remains the hypothetical clear front-runner ahead of the start of the 2028 White House race, which won’t ignite until after this year’s midterm elections, Secretary of State Marco Rubio appears to be on the rise.

Thanks to an increase in his responsibilities and public profile, most recently around the U.S. operation in Venezuela and the month-long strikes against Iran, Rubio has seen his support for a possible presidential bid soar in recent weeks.

The latest example — Rubio’s strong second-place finish this weekend in the 2028 Republican presidential nomination straw poll at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).

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President Donald Trump takes questions from reporters while Vice President JD Vance, left, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, right, look on, as they attend a meeting with oil industry executives, at the White House in Washington, D.C., Jan. 9, 2026.(Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

Rubio, who was one of more than a dozen Republican contenders who ran and lost to Trump in the tumultuous 2016 presidential race, grabbed 35% of the vote at CPAC when the straw poll results were announced this past weekend, up from a mere 3% a year earlier.

Vance, who is popular with MAGA and America First groups, finished first at 53%. While the vice president saw his support slightly edge down from 61% last year, Vance’s numbers are higher than any one else in CPAC presidential straw poll history other than Trump.

All the other potential Republican 2028 White House candidates in the new straw poll scored in the low single digits in the informal survey of CPAC attendees.

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The CPAC straw poll follows recent numbers from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center in New Hampshire, the state that has long held the first primary in the GOP presidential nominating calendar, that also showed Rubio surging. And a handful of national polls have also pointed to a rise in support for a hypothetical Rubio bid.

The results are fuel for intrigue over what some in the Republican Party see as a budding rivalry between Rubio and Vance, who describe each other as friends.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, left, and President Donald Trump during a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025.(Yuri Gripas/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“His overall favorability is going up because voters see him as a capable and steady person in the president’s cabinet, and Trump supporters are reacting,” New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque, who oversees the Saint Anselm poll, told Fox News Digital.

Partially fueling Rubio’s rise is Trump, who has lavishly praised his secretary of state.

The president recently declared that Rubio would go down as “the greatest secretary of state in history.”

Trump has also promoted a Vance-Rubio ticket — calling it “unstoppable” a few months ago—but has not said who should be at the top of the ticket.

But the president did say last year that Vance is “most likely” his heir apparent. “In all fairness, he’s the vice president,” Trump added.

Vice President JD Vance, left, and President Donald Trump attend the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace at the Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace on Feb. 19, 2026, in Washington, DC.(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

While Vance has demurred when questioned about 2028, he has built a political team of advisers who, if he runs as expected, would quickly build out a presidential campaign.

Rubio, who is crisscrossing the globe as part of job requirements, doesn’t have a similar group of political aides. And Rubio has said he’ll back Vance if the vice president launches a 2028 campaign.

“If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him,” Rubio told Vanity Fair late last year.

Regardless, Republican sources confirm to Fox News that a group of GOP donors who support the secretary of state are quietly working on ways to boost Rubio’s political profile.

That’s not sitting well with some in the president’s political orbit.

“Vice President Vance is the future of the Republican Party and Marco Rubio is one of his closest friends in the administration,” an operative in Trump’s political orbit told Fox News.

“The divisive stories from some donors trying to cause chaos are not helpful,” the operative, who asked to remain anonymous to speak more freely, emphasized.

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Vance has also weighed in, telling Fox News’ Martha MacCallum last month that “Marco is my closest friend in the administration.”

And the vice president, in his interview on Fox News’ “The Story, added, “I think it’s so interesting the media wants to create this conflict where there just isn’t any conflict.”

Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in the swing state of New Hampshire. He covers the campaign trail from coast to coast.