文字实录:卡林·萨贾德普尔、退役将军弗兰克·麦肯齐做客《与玛格丽特·布伦南直面国家》节目,2026年3月29日
2026-03-29T12:03:00-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
以下是伊朗政策分析师卡林·萨贾德普尔、前中央司令部司令、哥伦比亚广播公司新闻特约撰稿人、退役将军弗兰克·麦肯齐接受采访的文字实录,本次采访于2026年3月29日在《与玛格丽特·布伦南直面国家》节目中播出。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 想要了解当前伊朗境内持续进行的战争,我们邀请到了伊朗政策分析师卡林·萨贾德普尔,以及从坦帕连线参与节目的前中央司令部司令、哥伦比亚广播公司新闻特约撰稿人、退役将军弗兰克·麦肯齐。两位早上好,卡林,先从你开始。目前在伊斯兰堡,巴基斯坦、土耳其、埃及这些自称调解方的国家正齐聚一堂,讨论如何缓和战争局势。到目前为止,伊朗尚未回应特朗普政府提出的15点和平方案,卢比奥甚至表示,他甚至不确定应该与伊朗方面的哪些人进行谈判。那么,我们实际要与之谈判的对象到底是谁?我们真的在进行谈判吗?
卡林·萨贾德普尔: 玛格丽特,伊朗伊斯兰共和国这个政权,自1979年掌权以来就曾挟持美国外交官为人质。如今,他们认为自己挟持了全球经济作为人质,并且正在打一场生存之战。同时,他们也是在向特朗普总统复仇。所以目前来看,他们似乎并不觉得有妥协的必要,因为种种趋势都对他们有利:油价在上涨,美国民众对这场战争的支持率在下降,而我们希望能与之谈判的许多伊朗领导人,如今都被迫转入地下,为保住性命而挣扎。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 关于双方不对称的实力差距,将军,我想请你谈谈。伊朗此前一直等待时机,打算激活其在也门支持的民兵组织胡塞武装。就在上周末,他们参战并向以色列发动了袭击。考虑到他们不仅可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡,还可能切断红海的另一条航道,你认为这是否会改变战局?
弗兰克·麦肯齐将军: 玛格丽特,我不认为这会改变战局。他们袭击以色列的能力相当有限。没错,他们有可能进一步减慢巴布埃尔曼德布海峡通往苏伊士运河的航运速度。我们有能力前往该区域阻止这种情况发生。这需要额外的资源,但我们拥有这些资源,必要时我们完全可以做到。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 总统明确表示,必须重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。但他在谁来执行、何时执行等问题上的表态有些自相矛盾。从军事角度来看,要让海峡恢复通航,现实情况是怎样的?
弗兰克·麦肯齐将军: 我们现在正在推进这项工作,玛格丽特。这是一项酝酿多年的计划的一部分。我们目前正在做的,是削弱伊朗使用短程导弹、无人机和其他手段袭击海峡内船只的能力。我们通过在伊朗南部上空保持24小时不间断的空中优势,搜寻这些导弹的位置并持续发动打击来实现这一目标。一旦将他们的威胁降至极低水平,必要时我们就可以进入海峡扫雷。我不确定他们是否已经在水中布设了水雷,但我预测他们最终会这么做,这符合他们的行事风格。不过我们有能力应对。我们正在按计划推进。说实话,玛格丽特,我在中央司令部的多个岗位上多次模拟过这种场景,根据我所见过的所有模拟情况,我们目前的进展比预期的要更快一些。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 我猜在你的模拟场景中,你也曾考虑过霍尔木兹海峡的相关情况,尽管总统说过“没人曾想过这种事”,但你们其实早就考虑过了,对吗?
弗兰克·麦肯齐将军: 美国军方会考虑很多情况。我们当然早就考虑过霍尔木兹海峡以及哈尔克岛的相关问题,还有伊朗南部沿海的所有岛屿。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 卡林,总统曾表示,以色列击毙了他原本认为可以与之进行谈判的二级务实派人士。最近几天,出现了一个名字:议长加利巴夫。我们对他了解多少?他是一个我们可以与之达成协议的人吗?
卡林·萨贾德普尔: 重要的是,加利巴夫曾是伊朗革命卫队的高级指挥官,也是穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的亲密顾问。在不同的情况下,他本有可能成为伊朗的现代化强人领导人。我其实在达沃斯世界经济论坛上见过他,他会出现在达沃斯这一点,就能体现出他的部分世界观。但在当前的局势下,伊朗体制内没有人能够改变其长期以来敌视美国和以色列的意识形态,哪怕他们想这么做也不行。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 请你解释一下,我们从白宫和以色列方面听到的说法是,施压会让他们屈服。但你却说他们是不可被击垮的?
卡林·萨贾德普尔: 至少在目前,未来可能会有变化,但我们尚未看到该政权的决心出现任何裂痕。我们没有看到其安全部队凝聚力出现任何裂痕。考虑到包括最高领袖在内的许多高级官员已经被杀,这个政权并不准备妥协或改变其意识形态。他们实际上认为敌视美国是其身份的一部分,如果你在这一点上妥协,不仅不会延长他们的统治寿命,反而可能加速他们的垮台。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 那么,如果无法通过谈判达成解决方案,这场战争将如何收场?
卡林·萨贾德普尔: 我看不到这场冲突有任何解决的可能。我认为美国和伊朗在这场战争中的目标相去甚远。不过,我们有可能看到一场临时停火,让霍尔木兹海峡重新开放,这将使局势从热战重回冷战。但在我看来,只要这个政权还掌权,美国和伊朗就不可能实现关系正常化。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 将军,你同意这个评估吗?特朗普政府似乎承认只要愿意与该政权谈判,就能让他们继续掌权。
弗兰克·麦肯齐将军: 玛格丽特,伊朗外交政策的首要目标是维持政权生存。上世纪80年代末,当伊朗局势极度恶化时,他们曾与伊拉克签署停战协议,伊朗历史上将其称为“饮鸩止渴”。我相信他们最终会屈服,会坐下来谈判。这可能不是一个完美的解决方案,但可能会包括开放霍尔木兹海峡,或许还能就导弹问题达成协议,核计划也有可能纳入谈判范围。但我相信他们最终会达成协议。不过我们需要持续施压,继续对他们施加巨大压力,因为这是他们唯一会响应的方式。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 总统此前宣布,应伊朗政府的要求,他将重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的截止日期推迟至4月6日晚上8点。我们还获悉,国务卿正在与盟友讨论战后如何让其他国家协助维持海峡治安,他表示需要为油轮提供军事护航。这听起来不像是一个短期项目,哪怕战斗结束,我们也可能需要在该地区长期保持军事存在。我的看法错了吗?
弗兰克·麦肯齐将军: 玛格丽特,你可能是对的,我们拭目以待。我认为有两种方式可以开放霍尔木兹海峡:第一种是伊朗与我们谈判,主动开放海峡,这当然是我们期望的解决方案。第二种是如果他们拒绝谈判并选择继续战斗,我们也可以通过军事行动开放海峡。第二种方案显然需要向该地区部署更多的舰艇和装备,届时盟友的帮助肯定会非常有用。无论伊朗选择何种方式,我们都有能力开放霍尔木兹海峡。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 鉴于白宫一直在向该地区增兵,还有海军陆战队也在调往该区域,你认为白宫是否在为地面部队部署做准备?如果是的话,具体会是什么样子?
弗兰克·麦肯齐将军: 玛格丽特,多年来我们一直在考虑伊朗南部沿海的行动方案,比如夺取岛屿、占领小型基地,通常都是突袭行动。突袭行动是有计划撤退的作战行动,不会长期驻军。不过,有些岛屿我们可以夺取并驻守,这会产生两个效果:首先,这会让伊朗颜面尽失,让我们在谈判中占据巨大优势。其次,以哈尔克岛为例,人人都在谈论这个岛。如果夺取哈尔克岛,我们就能彻底切断伊朗的石油经济。而夺取该岛的好处在于,我们不会摧毁它,而是保留其设施,供全球经济后续使用,也有可能在特定条件下归还伊朗。所以这些都不是心血来潮的设想,而是我们多年来一直在研究的方案。我们威胁要控制整个沿海地区,保留所有选择,这是正确的做法。我认为总统在谈及所有备选方案时,传达的信息是完全正确的。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 但国务卿表示不需要地面部队,那么总统能在不派遣地面部队的情况下实现目标吗?这场战争该如何收场?怎样才算取得成功?
弗兰克·麦肯齐将军: 当然可以。我认为成功的标志就是霍尔木兹海峡重新开放,我们就弹道导弹计划和核计划达成某种协议。这大概就是我们所能期望的最高成果了。至少从军事行动的角度来看,这些目标一旦实现,就可以被视为胜利。我相信所有这些目标实际上都在我们的能力范围之内,我们只需要继续坚持下去。伊朗最终会对使用武力做出回应。他们比我们过去更清楚这一点,而以往的几届美国政府都被伊朗的手段吓退了。但特朗普政府不会被伊朗吓退。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 是的。总统表示他想要达成协议,尽管我知道你认为这很难实现。他还说万斯副总统将直接参与此事,卡林。这对你来说意味着什么?
卡林·萨贾德普尔: 伊朗方面其实愿意与万斯副总统谈判,原因有二:第一,他们认为他来自共和党内部的反战阵营;第二,他们认为既然JD·万斯有意竞选总统,就会有尽快结束这场战争的动机。我同意麦肯齐将军的观点,过去五十年来我们都知道,这个政权只有在明确的情况下才会妥协:既面临生存压力,又能看到明确的外交出路。我认为他们现在感受到了生存压力,但还没有看到明确的外交出路。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 好的,先生们,感谢两位为我们分享专业见解。今天的访谈就到这里。稍后我们将继续播出节目。
Transcript: Karim Sadjadpour, Ret. Gen. Frank McKenzie on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,” March 29, 2026
2026-03-29T12:03:00-0400 / CBS News
The following is the transcript of the interview with Iran policy analyst Karim Sadjadpour and former CENTCOM commander and CBS News contributor and retired Gen. Frank McKenzie that aired on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” on March 29, 2026.
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MARGARET BRENNAN: For more on the ongoing war in Iran, we’re joined by Iran policy analyst Karim Sadjapour, as well as former CENTCOM commander and CBS News contributor, retired General Frank McKenzie, who joins us this morning from Tampa. Good morning to you both, Kareem, let me start with you today in Islamabad, you have Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, these self proclaimed mediators gathered together to talk about how to de-escalate the war. Iran, so far, hasn’t responded to the 15 points the Trump administration put forward, and Rubio said he’s not even sure who they’d be negotiating with. So what is the reality of who we’re negotiating with, and are we even negotiating
KARIM SADJADPOUR: Well, Margaret, this is a regime, Islamic Republic of Iran, which came to power in 1979 taking American diplomats hostage. And now they think they have the global economy hostage, and they’re fighting a war of survival. They’re also fighting a war of revenge against President Trump. So at the moment, they don’t feel compelled to compromise, it seems, because the trend lines are, oil prices are going up, American public opinion about the war is going down, and many of these leaders that we’re hoping to negotiate with are right now living underground, fighting for their lives.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, to your point on that difference, that asymmetric difference in power General, I want to bring you in here, because one of the things that Iran had been waiting to do was activate its militias, or the militias it supports in Yemen, the Houthis, over the weekend, they jumped into the fight and fired on Israel. Do you think that this is a game changer, given that they could not just disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, but another passageway through the Red Sea?
GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: Margaret, I don’t think it will be a game changer. Their ability to attack Israel is quite limited. Yes, they will have the ability to further stop slow traffic through the Bab el Mandeb, going up into the Suez Canal. We have the ability to go down there and prevent that. It will require additional resources, but we have those resources, and we can certainly do it if that becomes necessary.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, the President has made clear that he needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. His language has been contradictory on some of these points as to who’s going to do it and when. What’s the military reality of making it passable?
GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: We’re on our way to doing that now, Margaret. This is part of a plan that’s been in existence for many years. What we’re doing right now is we’re reducing Iranian ability to target ships in the strait through their short range missiles, their drones and other activities. We do that by maintaining air superiority over southern Iran on a 24/7 basis, looking for where these missiles are and striking them relentlessly. Once we reduce those to a very low level, then you’ll be able to go in, if necessary, sweep for mines. I’m not certain they put mines in the water yet. I predict eventually they will. It’s their nature, but we have the ability to do this. We’re on, we’re on plan. I’ll be honest with you. Margaret, I’ve simulated this many years in many positions at Central Command, we’re a little further along than we would have expected to be at this point in all the simulations that I’ve seen.
MARGARET BRENNAN: I’m going to guess in your simulations, you looked at what would happen to the Strait of Hormuz, even though the President said no one ever thought of it, you thought of it, didn’t you?
GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: The U.S. military thinks of a lot of things. We certainly have thought of the Strait of Hormuz out of Kharg Island. Think of all those islands on the southern littoral of Iran.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Kareem, the president, said the Israelis killed the second tier pragmatist types that he had thought he might be able to go and negotiate with. In recent days, the name that has emerged is the Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. What do we know about him? Is he someone you can make a deal with?
KARIM SADJADPOUR: Ghalibaf is, importantly, a former senior Revolutionary Guard Commander and a close advisor to Mojtaba Khamenei. Under different circumstances he is someone who aspires to be Iran’s modern strongman leader. I’ve actually met him in the World Economic Forum in Davos, just the fact that he shows up in Davos shows you a little bit about his worldview. But under the current circumstances, no one in that Iranian system is capable of changing the longtime ideology of antipathy toward America and toward Israel, even if they wanted to.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Explain that, if you would, because what we hear from the White House and from Israel is that pressure will break them. You’re saying they’re unbreakable?
KARIM SADJADPOUR: At the moment, and this could change in the future, but we haven’t seen any cracks in the regime’s resolve. We haven’t seen any cracks, cracks in the cohesion of its security forces, and given the fact that so many of its top officials, including the Supreme Leader, have been killed, it’s a regime which is not prepared to compromise or change its ideology. They actually believe that antipathy towards America is part of their identity, and if you capitulate on that, it actually doesn’t prolong your shelf life, it actually could hasten your death.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So if there’s not a negotiated settlement, how does this end?
KARIM SADJADPOUR: I don’t see any possibility of a resolution to this conflict. I think the US and Iran are miles apart when it comes to their, their goals here. Now, I think we could see a potential cease fire that opens the Strait of Hormuz, which would shift this back from a hot war back to a cold war. But there’s no possibility, in my view, so long as this regime is in power, of a US, Iran, normalization.
MARGARET BRENNAN: General, do you agree with that assessment? I mean, it does seem that the Trump administration is acknowledging the regime will stay if they are at least offering to negotiate with the regime so it would allow for them to remain in power.
GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: The primary goal of Iranian statecraft, Margaret, is survival of the regime. Back in the late 1980s they signed a truce with Iraq when things were going very bad for Iran. In Iranian history is known as drinking from the poison chalice. I believe that they will break. I believe that they will come to terms. And it may be an imperfect solution, but I think it would be one that would include opening the Strait of Hormuz, possibly some deal on the missiles, on the missile systems, the nuclear program is certainly a possibility, but I believe eventually they’ll make a deal. But we need to keep the pressure up. We need to continue to press them very hard, because that is, in fact, the only thing they will respond to.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So the President had posted he’s postponed the deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the Iranian government asking for it. He says he shifted that to April 6 at 8pm. We also hear from the secretary of state that he is talking to the allies about a post conflict necessity of having other countries help to essentially police the strait. And he said that you will need tankers to have military escorts. So this doesn’t sound like this is a short term project. This sounds like even if combat ends, we’re going to be talking about a military presence in the region for some time. Am I wrong?
GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: Margaret, you could be right. Let’s see what happens. I think a negotiated- there are two ways the Strait of Hormuz can be opened. It can be opened if the Iranians negotiate with us to open it. And of course, that’s the desired solution. The other solution would be, if they don’t, and they decide to fight, we can open the strait under that condition too. The second condition is obviously a lot more intensive in terms of ships and equipment that would have to bring into the region, and yes, help from our allies would certainly be, would be very useful in that case. We have the ability to open the Strait of Hormuz under any condition that the Iranians choose to exist under.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Does it appear to you that one of the contingencies that the White House is planning for, given that they’re continuing to move troops into the region, and you have these Marines who are moving into the area as well. Are they preparing for a ground troop presence? And what does that look like?
GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: Margaret, for many years, we’ve considered options along the southern coast of Iran, seizing islands, seizing small bases, typically raids. And a raid is an operation with a planned withdrawal. You’re not going to stay. But some of those islands you could seize and hold, that would have a couple effects. First of all, it would be profoundly humiliating for Iran, and would give us great weight in negotiations. The second, the example of Kharg Island, which everyone talks about. If you seize Kharg Island, you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely. And the beauty of seizing it is you’re not destroying it. You’re retaining it for further use by the global economy and possibly for return to Iran under certain conditions. So all of these things, this is not back of the, these are not back of the envelope calculations. These are things we’ve been working on for many years, and I think we’re right to threaten the entire littoral to hold all these options out there. And I think the President’s message is spot on when he talks about all these alternatives.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But can he achieve his goals without ground troops, which is what the Secretary of State says. And how does this end? How do you call this a success?
GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE: Sure, I think a success looks like the Strait of Hormuz is open. We get some kind of deal on the ballistic missile program, some kind of deal on the nuclear program. That’s probably about as much as you could hope for. But I think they’re very discreet things that, for me, at least from an operational military perspective, would be, would look like victory. I believe all of those things are actually within our grasp. We just need to continue. Iran will ultimately respond to the use of force. They know and understand it, perhaps better than we have, we have in the past. This administration is willing to use force. Other administrations have been thoroughly deterred by Iran. President Trump is not deterred by Iran?
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yeah. Well, the President says he wants a deal, even though I know you think that’s going to be pretty hard to get to and he said Vice President Vance is going to be directly involved here, Karim. What does that signal to you?
KARIM SADJADPOUR: Well, the Iranians actually want to negotiate with Vice President Vance for a couple of reasons. Number one, they think he comes from the anti-war wing of the Republican Party. And number two, they think because of the fact that JD Vance wants to run for president, he’s incentivized to want to wrap this war up pretty quickly. And I agree with something General McKenzie said, which is we know over the last five decades that this regime is only compromised under really clear circumstances, when it faces existential pressure coupled with a clear diplomatic exit. I think it’s feeling existential pressure. I don’t think they’ve yet seen a clear diplomatic exit.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, gentlemen, thank you both for lending us your expertise for this conversation. We’ll have to leave it there. We’ll be back in a moment.
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