发布时间：2026年3月27日 美国东部时间下午3:48 | 福克斯新闻
美国官员和分析师正在权衡夺取伊朗主要石油出口枢纽是否能对其造成毁灭性的经济打击，但专家警告称，这一高风险行动可能不会像预期那样迅速或彻底切断德黑兰的收入来源。
分析师表示，美国规划者面临一个高风险决策：夺取霍姆兹甘岛（注：原文”Kharg Island”为霍姆兹甘岛，伊朗主要石油出口枢纽）是否会真正扰乱伊朗的石油收入，还是会让关键出口通道保持畅通，同时使美军面临持续攻击的风险。讨论中的选项包括在海上拦截油轮，或从空中打击出口基础设施，一些人认为这些方法可以在不派遣地面部队的情况下向德黑兰施压。
“目前存在很大的争议，”海军陆战队退伍军人、反恐分析师R.P.纽曼告诉福克斯新闻数字版。
霍姆兹甘岛处理伊朗绝大多数原油出口，是该地区战略意义最为重大的能源节点之一，也是任何经济施压德黑兰的核心支点。
[美军为“游击式”袭击做准备：第82空降师部署伊朗，军事分析师警告]
“从军事角度讲，我们当然有能力夺取它，”海军陆战队退伍军人、反恐分析师R.P.纽曼表示。
一些分析师认为，夺取霍姆兹甘岛可能会带来立竿见影的经济冲击，切断伊朗政权的主要石油收入来源，并可能让华盛顿在更广泛的谈判中获得筹码。
但这样的行动并不简单。
“要做到这一点需要数千人，”他说。
美军已于3月初对该岛发动打击，击中了90多个伊朗军事目标，包括导弹和海军水雷设施，但刻意避开了石油基础设施，使出口业务基本完好无损。
美国海军第五舰队前指挥官、退休海军上将凯文·多尼根表示，无需将美军部署到岛上也能实现同样目标。
美国官员和分析师正在权衡夺取伊朗主要石油出口枢纽是否能对其造成毁灭性的经济打击，但专家警告称，这一高风险行动可能不会像预期那样迅速或彻底切断德黑兰的收入来源。（Elif Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images）
“只需限制从霍姆兹甘岛驶出海湾的石油运输，就能实现预期目标，”多尼根说。
“你可以阻止每一艘离港的船只，”他补充道。
詹姆斯·罗宾斯认为，美国也可以通过空中力量而非直接夺取，来瘫痪霍姆兹甘岛的出口能力。
来自海军陆战队远征部队和陆军第82空降师的数千名士兵涌入，引发了对地面行动可能即将展开的猜测。
但国务卿马尔科·卢比奥周五表示，美国行动可能在”几周而非数月”内完成，且无需地面部队。
“我们在大多数目标上都提前完成了计划，无需任何地面部队，完全不需要，”卢比奥在巴黎参加七国集团外长会议时告诉记者。
即使美军能够夺取该岛，一些分析师警告称经济影响不会立竿见影。
欧亚集团分析师格雷戈里·布鲁说：”如果不同时扣押在途油轮，夺取霍姆兹甘岛的预期全面经济效果将是延迟显现的。”
针对霍姆兹甘岛的任何行动都将打击伊朗最关键的经济资产之一。
“石油产品销售通常占伊朗官方国家预算的30%至40%，”布鲁说。”毫无疑问，国家预算将受到重大冲击。”
但石油收入的损失不一定会击垮伊朗政权的核心权力结构。
“伊斯兰革命卫队实际上拥有一个影子预算，”布鲁说。”事实上，其相对地位可能会提升。”
这意味着，尽管政府的官方预算会缩减，但伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）可以通过其独立收入来源保留国家剩余资源的更大份额。
即使霍姆兹甘岛停运，伊朗仍有其他方式维持出口。
“伊朗还有其他四个出口设施，”布鲁说。
其位于霍尔木兹海峡外的贾斯克终端”可以处理霍姆兹甘岛出口量的约五分之一。”
“要完全停止出口，也需要拦截这条运输线，”布鲁补充道。
这意味着任何完全封锁伊朗石油出口的努力可能会超出霍姆兹甘岛的范围，需要针对多条出口路线和设施采取行动。
[伊朗拒绝停火，美军部署空降部队和海军陆战队，地面战争风险加剧]
在岛上长期驻守也将证明困难重重，因为美军将处于伊朗本土无人机、火箭和导弹射程内的海上封锁目标。
“任何部署到岛上的部队都将容易受到伊朗的反击，”布鲁说。
“他们将是一支规模很小、极易暴露的部队，”世界政治研究所院长、前国防部长唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德顾问詹姆斯·罗宾斯表示。
除了最初的突击外，在岛上维持驻军还将面临额外挑战。
“一旦士兵们踏上地面，就必须为他们提供支持，这将极其困难，”罗宾斯说。
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一些分析师还质疑成功夺取该岛最终能实现什么目标。
“夺取霍姆兹甘岛的最终目的是什么？”罗宾斯说。”我看不到这样做的最终目标。”
总统唐纳德·特朗普已公开宣布暂停对能源基础设施的打击至4月6日，称与伊朗谈判取得”进展”。
但伊朗官员指责总统进行”心理战”，并表示怀疑。
伊朗已开始为可能的霍姆兹甘岛入侵做准备，调动额外部队，加强防空力量，并在该岛周围（包括潜在登陆点）布设水雷和其他陷阱，知情人士向CNN透露。
五角大楼和伊朗常驻联合国代表团未立即回应置评请求。
US eyes seizing Iran’s oil lifeline — but it may not cripple Tehran
Published March 27, 2026 3:48pm EDT | Fox News
U.S. officials and analysts are weighing whether seizing [Iran’s main oil export hub] could deal a crippling financial blow — but experts warn the high-risk move may not shut off Tehran’s revenue as quickly or completely as expected.
Analysts say U.S. planners face a high-stakes decision: whether seizing Kharg Island would actually disrupt Iran’s oil revenue or leave key export flows intact while exposing American forces to sustained attack. Options under discussion range from interdicting tankers at sea to striking export infrastructure from the air, approaches some argue could pressure Tehran’s finances without putting troops on the ground.
“There’s a big debate going on right now,” R.P. Newman, Marine veteran and counterterrorism analyst, told Fox News Digital.
Kharg Island handles the vast majority of Iran’s crude oil exports, making it one of the most strategically significant energy nodes in the region and a central pressure point for any effort to economically squeeze Tehran.
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“We certainly have the ability, military wise, to take it,” said R.P. Newman, a Marine veteran and counter-terrorism analyst.
Some analysts argue that taking Kharg could deliver an immediate economic shock, cutting off the regime’s primary source of oil revenue and potentially giving Washington leverage in broader negotiations.
But such an operation would not be simple.
“It would take thousands to do that,” he said.
U.S. forces already have struck the island hitting more than 90 Iranian military targets, including missile and naval mine facilities, earlier in March while deliberately avoiding oil infrastructure, leaving export operations largely intact.
Retired Adm. Kevin Donegan, former commander of the [U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet], said the same objective could be achieved without putting U.S. forces on the island.
U.S. officials and analysts are weighing whether seizing Iran’s main oil export hub could deal a crippling financial blow — but experts warn the high-risk move may not shut off Tehran’s revenue as quickly or completely as expected.(Elif Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images)
“You could achieve that desired outcome just by constraining the flow that comes out of Kharg after it gets outside the Gulf,” Donegan said.
“You could stop every ship that comes out,” he added.
Robbins said the U.S. could also disable Kharg’s export capability with air power rather than seizing it outright.
An influx of thousands of troops from Marine expeditionary units and the Army’s 82nd airborne division has raised speculation that a ground operation could be on the way.
But Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday U.S. operations could wrap in “weeks, not months” and without ground troops.
“We are ahead of schedule on most of (the objectives), and we can achieve them without any ground troops, without any,” Rubio told reporters during a trip to Paris for a meeting of G-7 foreign ministers.
Even if U.S. forces were able to seize the island, some analysts warn the economic impact would not be immediate.
“The desired full economic effect of taking Kharg Island is going to be a delayed effect if you don’t also seize underway tankers,” said Gregory Brew,analyst at the Eurasia Group, said.
Any operation targeting Kharg would strike at one of Iran’s most critical economic assets.
“Sales of petroleum products have generally covered between 30 and 40% of the official state budget,” Brew said. “There’s no question the state budget will take a significant hit.”
But a loss of oil revenue would not necessarily cripple the regime’s core power structure.
“The IRGC has what is in effect a shadow budget,” Brew said. “If anything, its relative position may improve.”
That means that while the government’s official budget would shrink, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)could retain a larger share of the country’s remaining resources through its independent revenue streams.
Export oil pipelines are seen at an oil facility on Kharg Island, on the shore of the Gulf.(Str/AFP Via Getty Images)
Even if Kharg were taken offline, Iran would retain other ways to keep exports flowing.
“Iran does have four other export facilities,” Brew said.
Its terminal at Jask, Iran, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, “can handle around one-fifth of the volume of oil that can be exported from Kharg.”
“Stopping completely would require interdicting that traffic as well,” Brew added.
That means any effort to fully choke off Iran’s oil exports would likely extend beyond Kharg, requiring action against multiple export routes and facilities.
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Sustaining the island would prove difficult as well, putting U.S. forces on a sea-locked target within range of[Iranian drones], rockets and missiles from the mainland.
“Any deployment to the island will be vulnerable to Iranian counterattack,” Brew said.
11 days in, here’s where U.S. operations in Iran stand.(Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
“They would be a very small force, very exposed,” said James Robbins, dean of the Institute of World Politics and a former adviser to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Beyond the initial assault, sustaining forces on the island would present additional challenges.
“Once the guys are on the ground, then you have to support them and that would be extremely hard,” Robbins said.
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Some analysts also question what a successful seizure would ultimately achieve.
“To what end would be the question,” Robbins said. “I don’t see an endgame to that, to seizing Kharg.”
President [Donald Trump] has publicly announced a reprieve on strikes on energy infrastructure until April 6, citing “progress” in negotiations with Iran.
But Iranian officials have accused the president of “psychological warfare” and expressed skepticism.
Iran already has begun preparing for a potential Kharg invasion, moving additional forces, bolstering air defenses and laying mines and other traps around the island, including along potential landing areas, sources familiar with the intelligence [told CNN.]
The Pentagon and the Iranian mission to the United Nations could not immediately be reached for comment.
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