2026年4月10日 / 美国东部时间上午11:21 / 哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）新闻
作者：梅根·塞鲁洛 记者，MoneyWatch栏目
梅根·塞鲁洛是驻纽约的CBS MoneyWatch记者，报道小企业、职场、医疗保健、消费支出和个人理财领域话题。她经常做客CBS新闻24小时频道解读相关报道。
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有报道称伊朗计划向通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只收取通行费，这引发了人们对其可能对石油和燃料价格造成经济影响的担忧。
劳埃德船级社情报部门的分析师在近期一份报告中指出，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队“已在霍尔木兹海峡事实上建立了‘收费站’制度，要求船只提交全套文件、获取通关密码，并接受伊朗革命卫队护航，通过单一受控航道通行”。这家海事研究机构称，至少已有两艘船只以人民币支付了相关费用。
目前伊朗尚未正式对海峡通行收取费用，此举将是史无前例的。但据路透社报道，德黑兰本周暗示，根据重新开放海峡的长期和平协议，伊朗将向船只收取费用，以保障其安全通行。
美国总统特朗普周四在Truth Social的帖子中警告伊朗，不要对这条连接波斯湾与多条贸易航线的关键航道收取通行费。他写道：“有报道称伊朗正在向通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮收取费用——最好不要这么做，如果已经开始了，最好立即停止！”
霍尔木兹海峡通常承担全球约20%的石油和液化天然气运输量。穆拉特·乌萨利/阿纳多卢通讯社 盖蒂图片社供图
投资咨询公司资本经济（Capital Economics）的分析师在报告中表示，如果伊朗对船舶通行收取费用，该国将“事实上掌控能源贸易的关键动脉，并为全球经济带来新的地缘政治风险”。
霍尔木兹海峡通常承担全球约20%的石油和液化天然气运输量，目前几乎处于完全封闭状态，油轮不愿冒险通过这条狭窄水道。据Marine Traffic的数据，通常每天有超过100艘船只通过该海峡，但3月平均仅6艘船只通行，本月日均通行量约为10艘。
全球油价在2月28日战争爆发前徘徊在每桶65至73美元之间，上周五收盘价略高于95美元。
伊朗掌控海峡会影响油价吗？
英国《金融时报》本周报道称，伊朗能源出口联盟发言人哈米德·侯赛尼表示，伊朗计划征收相当于每桶1美元的关税。航运业专家和经济学家称，这意味着每艘通过海峡的油轮可能需支付高达200万美元的费用。
但资本经济首席经济学家尼尔·谢林表示，仅这些额外成本不会对全球整体油价产生显著影响。他指出，许多波斯湾国家的石油生产边际成本约为每桶20美元。
“这不会大幅增加生产成本，”他对CBS新闻表示，“石油生产商仍将获得巨额利润。”
相比之下，谢林预计，如果德黑兰牢牢掌控海峡，无论是否征收通行费，油价都将在数月内维持高位。
“未来这是否会被用作经济武器，仍存在疑问，”谢林说道，他指出伊朗可能以提高通行费为威胁，对其他国家施加杠杆压力。
“市场上将永久存在油价风险溢价。我认为，受此事件影响，全球油价将处于更高水平，”他补充道。
挪威能源咨询公司雷斯塔德能源（Rystad Energy）高级合伙人兼油气部门主管阿尔特姆·阿布拉莫夫对CBS新闻表示，霍尔木兹海峡通行费还将促使船舶保险公司提高费率，进一步推高能源成本。
“船东和保险公司需要很长时间才能适应这种不寻常的模式，运费和保险费将维持高位，”他对CBS新闻表示，“这会增加石油成本，而所有这些成本最终都会转嫁给消费者。”
政策研究机构SGH宏观顾问公司首席执行官萨桑·加拉马尼表示，影响能源成本的一个更重要因素是海湾地区石油和天然气设施的受损程度。
“对油价而言，更大的问题是基础设施受损，而非通行费，”他对CBS新闻表示，“这才是能源市场的游戏规则改变者。”
——CBS新闻记者朱莉娅·英格拉姆为本报道贡献了内容
编辑：阿兰·谢特
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/trump-blasts-iran-over-strait-of-hormuz-access-as-vance-travels-for-pakistan-talks/
A Strait of Hormuz “toll” would pose major economic and geopolitical risks, experts say
April 10, 2026 / 11:21 AM EDT / CBS News
By Megan Cerullo Reporter, MoneyWatch
Megan Cerullo is a New York-based reporter for CBS MoneyWatch covering small business, workplace, health care, consumer spending and personal finance topics. She regularly appears on CBS News 24/7 to discuss her reporting.
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Reports that Iran is planning to charge ships a toll to traverse the Strait of Hormuz are raising concerns about the potential economic impact on oil and fuel prices.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps “has imposed a de facto ‘toll booth’ regime in the Strait of Hormuz, requiring vessels to submit full documentation, obtain clearance codes and accept IRGC-escorted passage through a single controlled corridor,” analysts from Lloyd’s List Intelligence said in a recent report. At least two vessels have paid fees in Chinese yuan, according to the provider of maritime research.
For now, Iran has not officially implemented a toll for the strait, which would be unprecedented. But Tehran indicated this week that, under a long-term peace deal to reopen the strait, it would charge vessels a fee to guarantee safe passage, Reuters reported.
In a Truth Social post on Thursday, President Trump warned Iran not to impose a toll on the vital conduit, which links the Persian Gulf to multiple trade routes. “There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!” he wrote.
The Strait of Hormuz normally accommodates roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas supply. Murat Usubali/Anadolu via Getty Images
Analysts with investment adviser Capital Economics said in a report that an Iranian toll on ship traffic would give the country “de facto control over a critical artery for energy trade and introduce a new source of geopolitical risk to the world economy.”
The Strait of Hormuz, which normally accommodates roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply, remains virtually sealed, with tankers unwilling to risk passing through narrow waterway. While more than 100 ships per day ordinarily cross the strait, in March an average of only six vessels made the trip, while this month crossings have averaged about 10 per day, according to data from Marine Traffic.
Global oil prices, which traded at between $65 and $73 per barrel just before the war began on Feb. 28, hovered just above $95 on Friday.
Would Iran’s control of the strait affect oil prices?
The Financial Times reported this week that Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s energy exports union, said the country would look to impose a tariff equivalent to $1 per barrel. That could amount to as much as $2 million for every oil tanker passing through the strait, according to shipping industry experts and economists.
Still, those additional costs alone wouldn’t significantly influence overall global oil prices, according to Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing, who noted that the marginal cost of oil production in many Persian Gulf states is roughly $20 per barrel.
“It wouldn’t add much to the cost of production,” he told CBS News. “They would still be extracting huge profits on a barrel of oil.”
By contrast, Shearing expects oil prices to remain elevated for months if Tehran maintains a firm grip on the strait — whether or not a toll is imposed.
“There’s an open question about whether or not that becomes used as an economic weapon in the future,” Shearing said, pointing to the risk that Iran could use the threat of increasing tolls as leverage over other countries.
“There will be a permanent risk premium in the markets in terms of oil prices. I think we are in a world where oil prices will be more elevated as a result of this,” he added.
A Strait of Hormuz toll would also spur ship insurance providers to boost their rates, further raising energy costs, Artem Abramov, senior partner and head of oil and gas at Rystad Energy, told CBS News.
“It will take a long time for ship owners and insurance companies to become comfortable with this unusual model, and freight rates and insurance premiums will remain elevated,” he told CBS News. “They’re adding to the cost of oil, and all these costs are being transferred to consumers.”
A more important factor affecting energy costs is the extent of damage to oil and natural gas facilities across the Gulf, said Sassan Ghahramani, CEO of SGH Macro Advisors, a policy research firm.
“The bigger issue for oil prices is the infrastructure damage rather than the tolls,” he told CBS News. “That’s the game changer for energy markets.”
—CBS News’ Julia Ingram contributed to this report
Edited by Alain Sherter
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/trump-blasts-iran-over-strait-of-hormuz-access-as-vance-travels-for-pakistan-talks/
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