2026年中期选举九大竞争最激烈的参议院席位角逐

The 9 most competitive Senate races of the 2026 midterms

2026-04-10T09:00:56.561Z / CNN

A quiet April will soon give way to a jam-packed primary season where the fight for control of the Senate will come into sharper focus.

No primaries take place this month, but the intensity of each contest is picking up. Three of the four premier battlegrounds – Georgia, Maine and Michigan – feature contentious primaries that may help shape the Senate map.

The campaigns also are in the midst of reporting quarterly fundraising hauls, offering a snapshot of support and resources available to their operations in a critical stretch. And outside groups are beginning to flex their spending power across the Senate map.

Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, unveiled a $342 million investment across eight states they view as key to maintaining their majority. The group plans to pour $236 million into defending five Republican-held seats: Ohio, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa and Alaska. Another $106 million is set to target three Democratic-held seats: Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire.

Missing from the initial investment: Texas, which features a messy primary between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton.

The early allocation of funds allows the super PAC to reserve advertising time for the summer and fall months before rates begin to climb closer to November. The announcement highlights the vast resources available to the GOP with SLF ending 2025 with about $100 million cash on hand. One major wild card in the money race is MAGA Inc., the leading pro-Trump super PAC, which is sitting on more than $300 million.

Senate Majority PAC, which supports Senate Democrats, had $36 million in the bank at year’s end. But the group has yet to outline their spending plans heading into November. “This announcement is a sign Republicans are nervous, plain and simple,” said Lauren French, a spokesperson for SMP. “Their battleground map has increased substantially and we’re seeing the tell-tale signs of weakness with weak candidates, weak messaging, and an approval rating in the pits.”

While the candidates battle it out in their home states, the midterm campaign season is increasingly taking place against the backdrop of war with Iran and the economic uncertainty stemming from it.

The already broad disapproval of the war has risen to 66% with just one-third of the public believing President Donald Trump has a clear plan to handle the situation, according to a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS. Meanwhile, approval of the president’s handling of the economy, a top concern for voters, has fallen to a new career low of 31%.

Democrats have started to seize on some of the economic pain points Americans are grappling with one month into the conflict, including higher gas prices. Average gas prices in the US rose to $4.16 a gallon this week, per AAA, a nearly 40% increase since the start of the war.

The fragile ceasefire underway underscores the uncertainty around the conflict and the economic impacts stemming from it – issues that could complicate the GOP’s road ahead in the midterms. In the meantime, the GOP is eager to highlight the heftier tax returns stemming from the president’s “big, beautiful bill” that are hitting many Americans’ bank accounts this filing season.

Overall, Democrats and Republicans are facing an American electorate with deeply negative views of both parties. But at this point in the cycle, Democrats hold an early advantage. Registered voters say by a 6-point margin that they’d prefer the Democratic Party’s candidate over the GOP candidate if the elections for Congress were held today.

Democrats, who have seen a string of victories in special elections this year, are bullish the environment will be on their side heading into November. But their road to the majority, which involves picking up four seats, faces a complicated map that takes them through some reliably red states.

Here’s a look at where the key Senate races stand seven months out from Election Day:

Upcoming primary contests in Georgia, Maine, and Michigan could help dictate where the general election battle in each state is heading. In Texas, Republicans are in a holding pattern as the president continues to sit on the sidelines. And two Iowa Democrats are duking it out for a chance to flip the GOP-held seat in November.

Maine

The Senate primary in Maine has quickly become one of the most contentious Democratic contests this cycle and could determine whether the party can unseat incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins in November.

With the primary two months away, Democratic Gov. Janet Mills is racing to define her progressive opponent Graham Platner, betting female voters will find his history of offensive comments disqualifying. Mills has deployed three separate attack ads against Platner highlighting his controversies, including downplaying incidents of sexual assaults in the military.

Platner pushed back by releasing his own ad acknowledging the unease around his online statements. “Maine, I’m asking you not to judge me for the worst thing I said on the internet on my worst day 14 years ago, but who I am today,” Platner said in the ad.

No independent polls have emerged since the TV spots hit the airwaves, so it’s unclear whether Mills’ attack strategy will move the needle enough in the race where Platner, an oyster farmer and veteran, has held an edge.

Platner outraised Mills by nearly $2 million in the final quarter of 2025. On Wednesday, Mills’ campaign announced she raised $2.7 million in the first quarter of the year. Platner has yet to release his fundraising figures for the same period.

On the polling front, one February survey showed Platner leading Mills by more than 30 points in the Democratic primary. That same survey found Platner up 11 points over Collins in a hypothetical general election showdown while a Collins-Mills match-up is within the margin of error.

Platner was also recently endorsed by progressive Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has voiced support for Mills.

As the primary plays out, Republicans are flexing their spending power on behalf of Collins. One Nation, the issue advocacy arm of the Senate Leadership Fund, has upped their spending in the race to $17 million and started running positive ads highlighting Collins’ record on diabetes and cancer research.

That’s on top of the $42 million investment SLF is planning to unleash later in the cycle to boost Collins. If Platner becomes the nominee, Republicans have made clear he would face an onslaught of ads on a much bigger scale than what’s taking place in the primary.

Despite Collins’ success in the past, Democrats believe the partisan lean of the state that has voted for Democrats in presidential elections since 1992 will work to their advantage.

Maine remains central to Democrats’ strategy to win the majority with Collins being the most vulnerable Senate Republican in this year’s cycle. But much of the dynamics of the general election contest won’t be settled until Democrats sort out their nominee in early June.

Democrats are engaged in another heated primary in Michigan with a three-way fight for the nomination to run against GOP candidate Mike Rogers in November.

Republicans are going all-in to flip the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. SLF is setting aside $45 million for Michigan – the largest amount the super PAC is dedicating to an offensive opportunity at this point in the cycle.

The Democratic race between Abdul El-Sayed, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and US Rep. Haley Stevens is far from being settled with the primary not taking place until early August. In the last month, McMorrow earned the support of Warren while Stevens drew an endorsement from Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, a moderate senator.

McMorrow this week announced raising over $3 million in the first quarter of 2026 while El-Sayed brought in $2.25 million during that same period, a campaign source told CNN. Stevens has yet to report her fundraising haul.

Reflecting the pile-up, all three Democratic candidates showed up to court voters at Opening Day for the Detroit Tigers – El-Sayed and Stevens even running into each other and sharing a moment.

The contest is also highlighting the party’s tension over Israel in a state that saw a significant divide over US policy towards the Middle East during the 2024 presidential election.

El-Sayed this week campaigned with Hasan Piker, a widely followed left-wing streamer on the gaming platform Twitch. Piker has said America “deserved September 11,” a comment he has since said he regrets; said Hamas is “a thousand times better” than Israel; and argued that “it doesn’t matter” if Hamas fighters who attacked Israel on October 7 committed rape since it didn’t change his views on the conflict. He has referred to Israel’s military offensive in Gaza as a genocide.

After an event at Michigan State University this week, El-Sayed said Piker’s reach – he has more than 3 million followers on Twitch – is part of why he rallied with him. “If we’re serious about building a politics that unlocks for the folks who feel locked out, you got to be serious about going to the places where they naturally are,” El-Sayed said.

McMorrow and Stevens both criticized Piker’s visit. Third Way, a center-left think tank that has argued Piker has engaged in antisemitic and misogynistic commentary, is pressing El-Sayed to answer questions about whether he aligns with Piker’s views. Republicans are eager to highlight the wedge within the Democratic Party on an issue they believe is divisive with general election voters.

In an interview with Politico, El-Sayed declined to disavow Piker’s past comments.

“I’m not here to disavow people’s views,” El-Sayed said. “This whole gotcha game, platform policing, cancel culture – I thought we were over it.”

Meanwhile, Democrats also have seized on comments from Rogers that downplayed the impact of the Iran war on gas prices. “We’re gonna be fine, we got plenty of oil,” Rogers, a former congressman who lost the state’s 2024 Senate race, said in an audio clip obtained by Punchbowl News.

Democrats have used those comments to paint Rogers as out of touch with Michigan voters who are feeling an economic squeeze from high gas prices and the impact of tariffs on the auto industry, which is a cornerstone of the state’s economy.

Georgia looms as potentially one of the most competitive midterm races. Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Senate Democrat standing for reelection in a state carried by Trump in 2024.

Though Republicans have it penciled in as a top pick-up target, their bruising and uncertain primary is fueling concerns about the eventual nominee’s chances against Ossoff, who has been able to stockpile resources for the general election.

SLF is allocating $44 million to try to flip Georgia. Privately, Republicans say at this point in the cycle, they view Michigan, where the messy primary is on the Democratic side, as slightly more prime for a GOP pickup than the Peach State.

US Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter are competing with Derek Dooley, the former college football coach endorsed by outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp, who disappointed national Republicans by declining to enter the race himself. No clear leader has emerged on the GOP side, and Trump has so far withheld his influential endorsement, a move that could help the party coalesce behind a candidate.

All the while, Ossoff has been posting blockbuster fundraising numbers, pulling in $12 million in the fourth quarter of last year and reporting more than $25 million in cash on hand – five times as much as Carter, who leads the GOP field in that measure.

“You got to give the devil his due. He’s a sharp fella. He’s articulate. He speaks well. But he does not represent the values of the state of Georgia and that’s the problem,” Carter said of Ossoff on the Ruthless podcast last month. “You better have somebody at the top of the ticket who can turn people out who we are going to make sure beats Jon Ossoff.”

Recently, long lines at Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport, caused by the stalemate in Congress over DHS funding, have emerged as a flashpoint in the race. Republicans have seized on the developments, launching ads blaming Ossoff and Senate Democrats.

For his part, Ossoff has not shied away from attacking the administration. In a widely shared social media clip of a fiery speech from February, Ossoff laid into Trump and his allies, referring to them as the “Epstein class ruling our country.”

The Republican brawl between Cornyn and Paxton shows no signs of abating.

Despite pledging to quickly pick a side in the standoff, Trump has not stepped in. The deadline for candidates to remove their names from the May 26 runoff ballot has passed, and the next seven weeks could prove bruising and costly after the first round of voting became the most expensive Senate primary in US history.

No credible public polling has emerged in the weeks since the March primary where Cornyn received 42% of the vote to Paxton’s 40.5%. But Cornyn has provided a window into his fundraising operation, raising nearly $9 million in the first quarter of 2026.

That includes $3.4 million in the weeks since the March 3 primary, and Cornyn ended the period with over $8 million cash on hand. Paxton has yet to disclose his latest fundraising figures.

As they make their case to Texas voters and Trump, the two men have battled over their commitment to passing the SAVE America Act, a voter ID bill that is a top priority for the president.

Paxton, who spoke with the president about the runoff at Mar-a-Lago last month, has tried to drive an even further wedge between Cornyn and the MAGA base, highlighting the senator’s non-attendance at the conservative CPAC gathering in Grapevine last month. Cornyn and his allies continue to argue Paxton history of scandals could jeopardize the seat for Republicans in the November.

Texas has been a longshot for Democrats for decades, but many feel their nominee – state Rep. James Talarico – could give the party a real chance of putting Texas in play.

But whether Texas emerges as a competitive Senate race could hinge on what Republican voters decide in the May runoff. With the primary underway, the SLF did not include Texas in its initial investment list, but that could change depending on the competitiveness in the state heading into the general election.

In less than two months, Iowa primary voters will decide which Democratic candidate will take on GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson in November.

The June 2 primary is highlighting several of the debates within the Democratic Party, including what it takes to win in a red-leaning state. State Rep. Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist, is pitching himself as a “moderate, common-sense Democrat” while state Sen. Zach Wahls is a progressive who gained national attention with a speech in defense of marriage equality more than a decade ago.

The two candidates have earned endorsements from different wings of the party. Sens. Tammy Duckworth, Maggie Hassan and Cortez Masto have thrown their support behind Turek, while Warren is backing Wahls.

On the fundraising front, Wahls and Turek are on similar footing. Their campaigns announced identical $1.1 million hauls for the first three months of the year. The quarterly reports due April 15 will provide a clearer picture of the candidate’s cash-on-hand after Wahls ended the year with more in the bank than Turek – $733,000 to just under $400,000.

Turek also is getting a boost from VoteVets, which launched an $825,000 ad buy in the state on his behalf. The super PAC typically supports candidates who are veterans. Turek never served in the military; he was born with spina bifida after his father’s exposure to Agent Orange while serving in Vietnam.

Democrats acknowledge Iowa is difficult political terrain. Trump won the state handily in his three runs for the White House, and some Republicans privately say they believe Hinson, a former TV newscaster with Trump’s backing, is a stronger candidate than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst.

Hinson is operating with a sizable war chest compared to her Democratic opponents. She raised over $3 million for her campaign and affiliated committees in the first quarter of the year and ended the period with $6.5 million cash on hand.

SLF also plans to send $29 million to the state to defend the GOP-held seat in a year when a competitive governor’s race will also be on the ballot.

While they don’t place Iowa on the same level of competitiveness as Alaska and Ohio, Democrats argue the state could be a sleeper race of the cycle, especially as concerns about the economy and high gas prices comes into focus.

These four contests are essentially in general election mode. North Carolina is the lone toss-up state in this position after the March primary officially established the matchup for November. Democrats have secured their prized recruits in Alaska and Ohio to face off against incumbent GOP senators. And an open seat in New Hampshire has two politicians with deep Granite State roots preparing for battle in November.

Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley secured their nominations on March 3 after effectively uncontested primaries, formalizing the matchup in another highly anticipated battleground Senate contest.

The open-seat race, produced by GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’ retirement announcement last year, has given Democrats one of their best chances to gain ground on Republicans. Strategists in both parties believe this state will be closely contested until the end.

Both Cooper and Whatley are strong fundraisers with deep ties to their party establishments, setting up what’s likely to rank as one of 2026’s most expensive contests. While Cooper has yet to release his fundraising numbers, Whatley announced raising $5 million in the first quarter of 2026.

SLF has slated $71 million for North Carolina, the second largest investment to retain a Republican-held state. And Americans for Prosperity, a leading conservative advocacy network, has already spent more than $5 million backing Whatley’s campaign.

In the early going, the race has been animated by local issues reflecting national debates, including public safety.

The killing of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska on public transport in Charlotte last year – captured on camera – has been a focus of GOP attacks, portraying state Democrats as soft on crime. Democrats, meanwhile, have sought to raise questions about Whatley’s ties to a GOP official in the state who is a convicted sex offender.

In addition, as a recently departed RNC chair, Whatley is testing the record of Republican government under the Trump administration more broadly. He’s embraced the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act passed by the GOP-controlled Congress last summer, and aligned himself with congressional Republicans’ latest push to pass the SAVE America Act, touting his own “election integrity” initiatives at the RNC.

Former US Rep. Mary Peltola’s decision to enter Alaska’s Senate race in January was a major recruiting win for Democrats, giving the party a boost as it looks for ways to expand the map and cut into the Republican majority.

Peltola has won statewide twice, in a special election and subsequent race for a full-term representing Alaska’s at-large congressional district in 2022. And though she lost reelection in 2024 by less than 3 points, she ran well ahead of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who lost the state by 13 points.

In the first 24 hours following her launch, Peltola’s campaign said she raised more than $1.5 million, a significant haul reflecting the party’s enthusiasm about her prospects. And New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the progressive star, has lent her fundraising prowess to the Alaska Democrat.

While Alaska has a Republican lean, the potential for a competitive race this fall has prompted a flood of outside spending. Outside groups have already combined to spend $6 million on advertisements in Alaska’s sparse media markets, with Democrats sporting a roughly two-to-one advantage so far.

And sensing pressure, Republicans are mobilizing to support incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, who’s taken flak from Democrats over health care cuts in Trump’s sweeping domestic policy bill that he voted for last year. One outside group – “Last Frontier Action” – started running ads last month defending Sullivan’s record and touting his effort to secure funds for the legislation’s “Rural Health Transformation Program,” which provides $50 billion to shore up access in states like Alaska. SLF is also allocating $15 million to boost Sullivan in the race.

Flipping Ohio is a key part of Democrats’ strategy to winning back the Senate, but the steady rightward shift of the state during the Trump era initially tilts the race in the GOP’s favor.

Ohio is expected to be an expensive race, with SLF budgeting $79 million – the most of any state in play this cycle – to defend GOP Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.

Husted’s expected Democratic challenger is former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat to GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024, but outperformed Harris on the ticket. Brown is a strong fundraiser in his own right, bringing in $12.5 million across his campaign committees in the first quarter and ending the period with $16.5 million in the bank.

The campaign in Ohio may boil down to who can win working-class voters, who have drifted away from Democrats in recent elections. Democrats believe Brown’s history of presenting himself as a fighter for blue-collar workers may serve him well in November. Brown has also leaned into highlighting the economic impacts of the war in Iran, including rising gas prices.

Husted, meanwhile, picked up a key appointment he can talk up on the campaign trail – a spot on the Senate Appropriations Committee, which oversees how and where taxpayer dollars are spent. It’s a prized committee post senators can tout to show voters back home what they are securing for their state – similar to Collins, who chairs the committee and has won significant funding for her home state.

Democrats are feeling confident in the ability of US Rep. Chris Pappas to keep New Hampshire in the blue column after Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement announcement opened up a Senate seat, given the state’s partisan lean and the favorable political environment for the party.

Republicans are hopeful former Sen. John E. Sununu could put the Granite State in play with his more moderate profile and his family’s long record in New Hampshire politics. Sununu technically faces a September primary against former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, but Trump’s endorsement of Sununu makes him the clear favorite in the contest. SLF is targeting an initial $17 million to support Sununu in the state.

The Senate contest could also serve as a testing ground for presidential hopefuls with several high-profile Democrats already campaigning with Pappas in the Granite State. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly have hit the campaign trail in support of Pappas this year.