2026年4月9日 / 美国东部时间上午8:04 / 美联社 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
华盛顿——根据联邦气象数据，3月持续的反常高温强度极高，使得美国本土在132年的气象记录中迎来了最热的一个月。而随着部分预测显示一场正在形成的厄尔尼诺将达到超强级别，未来一年左右的全球变暖幅度可能还会进一步加大。
这不仅是美国有记录以来最热的3月，其与平均气温的差值也打破了美国本土48州历史上任何单月的纪录。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）周三公布的记录显示，3月的平均气温为50.85华氏度，比20世纪3月的平均气温高出9.35华氏度。这轻松超过了2012年3月创下的8.9华氏度的原纪录——该纪录曾是有记录以来任何月份的最高异常升温幅度。
美国国家海洋和大气管理局表示，3月的平均最高气温尤其偏高，比20世纪3月的平均最高气温高出11.4华氏度，甚至比4月的平均日间最高气温还要高出近1华氏度。
科学家的担忧与日俱增
美国有记录以来十大异常高温月份中，有六个出现在过去十年。今年2月，其气温比20世纪平均值高出6.57华氏度，位列第十大偏高月份。
“我们在美国各地3月经历的情况是前所未有的，”非营利科学研究组织气候中心的气象学家谢尔·温克利说道。
“令人如此担忧的原因之一，是那段时间里被打破和刷新的各项纪录数量之多，”温克利说，“而且这还是在经历了最严重的降雪季和有记录以来最热的冬季之后出现的。”
根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局的数据，2025年4月至2026年3月是美国本土有记录以来最热的12个月周期。
气候中心计算显示，3月20日和21日，美国约三分之一的地区遭遇了反常高温，如果没有人为造成的气候变化，这种高温几乎不可能出现。
分析美国国家海洋和大气管理局数据的气象学家盖伊·沃尔顿表示，全美各地超过19800个日常气温纪录被打破。沃尔顿的计算显示，有超过2000个地区创下了月度高温纪录——打破月度纪录比打破日常纪录难度更大。上个月创下的3月高温纪录数量，超过了过去数十年的总和。
“气候变化正在给我们重击”
耶鲁气候联系项目的气象学家杰夫·马斯特斯表示，所有这些被打破的纪录“都在告诉我们，气候变化正在给我们重击”。
“1月至3月这段时间是美国本土有记录以来最干旱的时期。所以这里不仅天气炎热，还创下了干旱纪录，”马斯特斯说，“这对水资源供应、农业、河流水位和航运来说都是糟糕的组合。”
欧洲气候与气象服务机构哥白尼中心和美国国家海洋和大气管理局均预测，几个月后将形成一场“超强”厄尔尼诺，并在冬季加剧。气象学家预计，这将推高全球本已偏高的气温，很可能打破2024年创下的最热年纪录。
厄尔尼诺是太平洋中部部分海域的自然周期性临时变暖现象，会改变全球各地的天气模式。当某一特定海域的水温比正常水平高出0.5摄氏度（0.9华氏度）时，就会形成厄尔尼诺。水温高出1摄氏度时被视为中度厄尔尼诺，高出1.5摄氏度时为强厄尔尼诺。美国国家海洋和大气管理局和欧洲方面均预测，本次厄尔尼诺的水温增幅将远高于2摄氏度，达到业内俗称的“超强”级别，可能媲美2015年和2016年的厄尔尼诺纪录。
北伊利诺伊大学气象学教授维克托·根西尼表示，厄尔尼诺会将上层海洋储存的热量释放到大气中，导致全球气温上升，但会有几个月的滞后性。
“一场强厄尔尼诺有可能在2026年末和2027年将全球气温推至新的纪录高位，”根西尼说。
去年12月发表在《自然通讯》期刊上的一项研究显示，超强厄尔尼诺通常会引发“气候体系转变”，将正常气候模式改变数年甚至数十年。该研究称，2015-2016年厄尔尼诺过后，墨西哥湾的水温跃升至新的持续高位，可能加剧了此后几年墨西哥湾沿岸的强飓风活动。
越来越多的研究表明，燃烧煤炭、石油和天然气导致的全球变暖可能会让厄尔尼诺变得更强，但气候科学家表示，这一观点尚未达成完全共识。
“全球变暖正在强化厄尔尼诺以及它所推动的大气变暖，”密歇根大学环境学院院长、气候科学家乔纳森·奥弗佩克说道，“我们在2016年和最近的2023年都看到了这一点。如果今年晚些时候如预测那样出现强厄尔尼诺，全球气温很可能会再次跃升。”
马斯特斯表示，厄尔尼诺通常会抑制大西洋的飓风活动，但会增强太平洋的飓风活动，还有助于缓解美国西南部的干旱。
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/2015-2025-warmest-decade-on-record-un-report/
Last month was hottest March on record for continental U.S. — by most for any month ever, federal data shows
April 9, 2026 / 8:04 AM EDT / AP / CBS News
Washington — March’s persistent unseasonable heat was so intense that the continental United States registered its most abnormally hot month in 132 years of records, according to federal weather data. And the next year or so looks to turn the dial up on global warmth even more, as some forecasts predict a brewing El Niño will reach superstrength.
Not only was it the hottest March on record for the U.S., but the amount it was above normal by beat any other month in history for the Lower 48 states. March’s average temperature of 50.85 degrees Fahrenheit was 9.35 degrees above the 20th century normal for March. That easily passed the old record of 8.9 degrees set in March 2012 as the most abnormally hot month on record – regardless of the month of the year – according to records released Wednesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The average maximum temperature for March was especially high at 11.4 degrees above the 20th century average and was almost a degree warmer than the average daytime high for April, NOAA said.
Scientists’ concern growing
Six of the nation’s top 10 most abnormally hot months have been in the last 10 years. This February, which was 6.57 degrees above the 20th century norm, was the tenth highest above normal.
“What we experienced in March across the United States was unprecedented,” said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central, a nonprofit science research group.
“One reason that’s so concerning is just the sheer volume of records, all-time records that were set and broken during that time period,” Winkley said. “But also this is coming on the heels of what was the worst snow year. And the hottest winter on record.”
April 2025 to March 2026 was the warmest 12-month period on record in the continental United States, according to NOAA.
On March 20 and 21, about one-third of the nation felt unseasonable heat that would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change, Climate Central calculated.
More than 19,800 daily temperature records were broken for heat across the country, according to meteorologist Guy Walton, who analyzes NOAA data. More than 2,000 places set monthly records for heat – harder to break than daily records – Walton calculated. That’s more March heat records set just last month than in entire decades in the past.
“Climate change is kicking our butts”
All those broken records “tells us that climate change is kicking our butts,” said meteorologist Jeff Masters of Yale Climate Connections.
“(The) January through March period was the driest on record for the contiguous U.S. So not only was it hot, it was record dry as well,” Masters said. “And that’s a bad combination for water availability, for agriculture, for river levels, for navigation.”
The European climate and weather service Copernicus and NOAA are both forecasting a “super” strong El Niño to form in a few months and intensify into the winter. Meteorologists expect that to increase already warm temperatures across the globe, likely pushing past the hottest year mark set by 2024.
An El Niño is a natural temporary and cyclical warming of parts of the central Pacific that alters weather across the planet. An El Niño is formed when a specific part of the ocean is 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 F) warmer than normal. It is considered moderate at 1 degree Celsius and strong at 1.5 degrees Celsius. Both NOAA and the Europeans are forecasting this one to be well above 2 degrees Celsius into an area that is informally called super-sized and perhaps rivaling records set in 2015 and 2016.
An El Niño releases heat stored in the upper ocean into the air, which causes global temperatures to rise, but with a few months lag time, said Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini.
“A strong El Niño could plausibly push global temperatures to new record levels in late 2026 and into 2027,” Gensini said.
Super-sized El Niños often trigger a “climate regime shift” that pushes normal conditions into a different pattern for years or decades, according to a study last December in the journal Nature Communications. The study said that after the 2015-2016 El Niño, the Gulf of Mexico jumped to a new sustained level of warmth that may have contributed to stronger hurricanes along the Gulf Coast in the years after.
Growing research seems to indicate that a warming world from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas could be making El Niños stronger, but climate scientists said that’s not quite a consensus yet.
“Global warming is supercharging El Niños and the atmospheric warming they drive,” said University of Michigan environment dean and climate scientist Jonathan Overpeck. “We saw this in 2016 and more recently in 2023. We’re likely to see another jump in global temperatures if a strong El Niño develops later this year as being predicted.”
El Niños tend to tamp down hurricane activity in the Atlantic, but ramp it up in the Pacific and could help ease the southwestern drought, Masters said.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/2015-2025-warmest-decade-on-record-un-report/
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