2026年4月9日 美国东部时间上午10:00 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
作者：艾米莉·梅·查乔尔 新闻编辑
艾米莉·梅·查乔尔是CBSNews.com的记者兼新闻编辑，通常报道突发新闻、极端天气以及涉及社会正义的议题。她此前曾为《洛杉矶时报》、BuzzFeed和《新闻周刊》等媒体撰稿。
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研究人员表示，2026年大西洋飓风季的风暴数量可能少于常年，因为气候模式似乎将导致飓风活动略低于常年平均水平。
这一预测是科罗拉多州立大学热带气旋、雷达、大气建模与软件团队最新年度飓风预报的核心内容，该团队于周四发布了这份预报。该团队历来是提前公布下一季飓风季预期情况的重要机构之一。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）将于下月发布另一项关键展望。
科罗拉多州立大学的专家团队估计，2026年大西洋海域将形成13个命名风暴，其中包括6场飓风和2场强飓风（定义为3级及以上强度）。
这些风暴可能在飓风季的任何时段形成，官方飓风季为6月1日至11月30日，不过活动通常在8月至10月间达到峰值。
该团队承认，他们4月发布的预报仍为初步预测，与NOAA的预报一样，将在飓风季开始后进行更新。但每年的初始预测仍会受到飓风易发州——尤其是佛罗里达州以及墨西哥湾沿岸和东海岸各州——的领导人和居民的密切关注，他们正提前为可能到来的风暴做准备。
“我们始终建议沿海居民，每个飓风季都要按同样的标准做好准备，”参与该预报撰写的德利安·科隆-布尔戈斯对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示，“在4月发布这份预报，能让人们提前思考未来几个月可能发生的情况。”
根据该预报，今年的飓风活动将降至长期季节平均水平的75%左右。如果预测准确，这将比去年的飓风季有所减少——去年共形成13个命名风暴、5场飓风和4场强飓风，但去年没有任何风暴直接登陆美国。联邦数据显示，平均飓风季会有14个命名风暴、7场飓风和3场强飓风。
科罗拉多州立大学2026年大西洋飓风预报与2025年以及常年平均的命名风暴、飓风和强飓风数量对比。尼基·诺兰/哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
科隆-布尔戈斯强调，无论统计数据如何，易受飓风季影响的社区都应“认真对待”。她说，鼓励人们提前开始准备、无论情况如何都保持警惕，“是我们希望传达的最重要信息之一”。
大气模式转变
科隆-布尔戈斯表示，研究人员做出低于平均水平的预报，主要驱动因素是大气条件的预期变化，这种变化会促进或抑制大西洋飓风的形成。
这主要是因为根据气候预测中心的消息，厄尔尼诺——即厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）周期的暖相位——预计将于今年夏季出现。这种以太平洋海表温度和降水变化为特征的现象，会影响美国各地的天气，通常也预示着飓风季的活跃程度。
在厄尔尼诺现象期间，大西洋飓风的强度和频率通常都会降低。
气候预测中心表示，厄尔尼诺在6月至8月间出现并至少持续到2026年底的概率为62%。预报人员预计，在今年飓风季的高峰期，厄尔尼诺将完全发展，甚至可能达到强强度。
未来几周大西洋海表温度的变化趋势，是当前4月预报存在不确定性的因素之一。科隆-布尔戈斯表示，目前温度趋势给出的信号“有些复杂”，其后续发展可能会影响未来的风暴预测。
2026年有多少风暴会登陆？
当前的预报预测，2026年美国沿海某地出现强飓风登陆的概率为32%，加勒比地区出现强飓风登陆的概率为35%。研究人员指出，尽管这些数字看起来较低，但它们未纳入强度较低的风暴，而这些风暴同样可能造成危险。
“只要有一场风暴在你所在的附近区域形成，对你来说这个飓风季就算是活跃的，”参与该预报撰写的迈克尔·贝尔在一份声明中说道。
去年美国没有飓风登陆，这是十年来首次，但一些加勒比岛屿遭受了严重打击。尤其是牙买加，遭到了5级强飓风“梅利莎”的重创，这场风暴以极强强度登陆，结束了2025年飓风季。
2025年大西洋飓风季形成的热带系统地图。尼基·诺兰/哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
2026年的命名风暴
世界气象组织会编制一份名单，用于为当年的热带风暴和飓风命名。
2026年的第一个命名风暴将名为亚瑟（Arthur），随后是伯莎（Bertha）、克里斯托瓦尔（Cristobal）、多莉（Dolly）、爱德华多（Edouard）和费伊（Fay）。名单按字母顺序排列，最后以维姬（Vicky）和威尔弗雷德（Wilfred）收尾，不过并非所有字母都会被用到。
2026年热带风暴和飓风将使用的命名列表。尼基·诺兰/哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
根据美国国家飓风中心的标准，当风暴的最大风速达到39英里/小时时，会被命名。当风速达到74英里/小时时，该风暴将升级为飓风。“强”飓风指的是风速至少达到111英里/小时，对应于 commonly used to rate storms. 常用的萨菲尔-辛普森飓风风力等级表中的3级及以上强度。这类强飓风有可能造成灾难性破坏。
First major 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast predicts slightly below-average season
April 9, 2026 10:00 AM EDT / CBS News
By Emily Mae Czachor News Editor
Emily Mae Czachor is a reporter and news editor at CBSNews.com. She typically covers breaking news, extreme weather and issues involving social justice. Emily Mae previously wrote for outlets like the Los Angeles Times, BuzzFeed and Newsweek.
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Fewer storms than usual may develop during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, researchers say, as climate patterns seem poised to favor slightly below-average activity compared with a typical year.
That prediction anchors the latest annual hurricane forecast from Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team, which was released Thursday. The team historically provides some of the earliest insights into what to expect from an upcoming season. Another key outlook will be released next month by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Colorado State University’s team of experts estimate that 2026 will see 13 named storms develop in the Atlantic basin, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes (defined as a Category 3 or higher).
They could occur at any point in the season, which officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, although activity typically peaks between August and October.
The team acknowledges their April forecast is preliminary, and, like NOAA’s, will be updated once hurricane season is underway. But their initial prediction is still closely monitored each year by leaders and residents of hurricane-prone states — especiallyFlorida and states along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard — readying themselves for the possibilities ahead.
“We always recommend, to coastal residents, to prepare the same way for every season,” Delián Colón-Burgos, who co-authored the forecast, told CBS News. “Putting this out there in April gets people thinking about what’s coming in the next couple of months.”
Hurricane activity this year will dip to about 75% of the long-term seasonal average, according to the forecast. If accurate, that would mark somewhat of a decrease from last year’s hurricane season, which brought 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes, although none made direct landfall in the U.S. last year. Federal data show an average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Colorado State University’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast compared with the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes that developed in 2025, and that develop during an average season. Nikki Nolan/CBS News
Colón-Burgos emphasized that communities vulnerable to the hazards of hurricane season should “take it seriously” regardless of the statistics. She said encouraging people to start preparations in advance and remain alert no matter what “is one of the most important things that we want to get across.”
An atmospheric shift
An anticipated change in atmospheric conditions that can either coax or suppress the development of Atlantic hurricanes is the main driver of researchers’ below-average forecast, Colón-Burgos said.
That’s primarily because El Niño, the warmer phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle, is expected to arrive this summer, according to the Climate Prediction Center. A phenomenon defined by shifting sea surface temperatures and precipitation in the Pacific Ocean, the cycle impacts weather across the United States and often foreshadows how busy a hurricane season will be.
During El Niño, Atlantic hurricanes tend to be less intense and less frequent.
The Climate Prediction Center has said there’s a 62% chance El Niño will emerge between June and August, and last until at least the end of 2026. Forecasters expect that El Niño will be in full swing, and potentially strong, at the peak of this year’s hurricane season.
Whether sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean rise or fall in the coming weeks is one variable creating uncertainty in the April forecast. Colón-Burgos said temperature trends are giving “a bit of a mixed signal” right now, and how they shape up could affect future storm predictions.
How many storms will make landfall in 2026?
The current forecast predicts there’s a 32% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline in 2026, and 35% chance of one making landfall in the Caribbean. While those figures may seem low, researchers note that they don’t account for less powerful storms, which can still be dangerous.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” said Michael Bell, who co-authored the forecast, in a statement.
No hurricanes struck the U.S. last year, for the first time in a decade, but some Caribbean islands were hit especially hard. Jamaica, in particular, was devastated by Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall as a formidable Category 5 storm and concluded the 2025 hurricane season.
A map of tropical systems that formed during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Nikki Nolan/CBS News
Named storms in 2026
The World Meteorological Organization prepares a list of names that will be assigned to a given year’s tropical storms and hurricanes.
For 2026, the first named storm will be called Arthur, followed by Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard and Fay. The list continues alphabetically until wrapping up with Vicky and Wilfred, although not all letters in the alphabet are represented.
Names that will be given to tropical storms and hurricanes in 2026. Nikki Nolan/CBS News
A storm receives a name when its maximum wind speeds reach 39 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. If winds reach 74 mph, the storm becomes a hurricane. “Major” hurricanes are those with winds of at least 111 mph, corresponding with Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Scale commonly used to rate storms. Such powerful hurricanes are capable of causing catastrophic damage.
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