2026年4月7日 下午4:42 美国东部时间 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
作者：梅根·塞鲁洛
梅根·塞鲁洛是驻纽约的哥伦比亚广播公司财经频道记者，报道小企业、职场、医疗保健、消费支出和个人理财领域话题。她定期做客哥伦比亚广播公司24小时新闻频道讨论其报道内容。
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最新分析显示，人工智能将极大改变工作性质，但不会取代绝大多数员工。
波士顿咨询集团的研究人员估计，在未来三年内，人工智能将“重塑”美国50%至55%的就业岗位。
“即便岗位本身保留下来，人们在这些岗位上的工作内容也会发生变化，”波士顿咨询集团董事总经理兼高级合伙人马修·克罗普对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示。
与此同时，许多岗位将被裁撤。波士顿咨询集团预测，未来五年内，美国10%至15%的就业岗位可能会被人工智能取代。
“人们几乎有一种本能反应——我们会削减岗位、进行裁员。这种做法不分青红皂白，对社会有害，因为我们需要人们拥有工作，同时对企业自身也不利，”他说。“没错，有些岗位会消失，但很多岗位需要通过再培训，让员工以不同方式开展工作，而这需要投入精力。”
对社会和企业都更有利
因此，克罗普敦促企业领导者关注人工智能如何增强员工的能力，而非取代他们。
“我们应该专注于再培训，确保从事相关工作的人员能够转向其他就业前景良好的领域，”克罗普补充道。
波士顿咨询集团利用政府劳工数据，对1500个岗位相关的任务进行了分析，以评估哪些岗位最适合通过人工智能进行赋能或取代。
“在某些情况下，随着岗位成本下降，岗位需求反而会上升，”克罗普说。“软件工程就是典型代表。企业积压了大量软件工程任务。由于成本过高，大量软件项目无法启动。”
相比之下，许多呼叫中心员工岗位预计将被裁撤，因为人工智能可以完成相关工作，且不会增加对这类服务的需求。
“当人工智能降低了处理常规咨询的成本后，咨询互动数量并不会成比例增长。在这种情况下，生产率提升更有可能减少所需的客服代表人数，”波士顿咨询集团在其分析中指出。
人工智能无法取代的工作？
在其他情况下，岗位将基本保持不变。克罗普表示，例如需要亲临现场或具备人际交往能力的职业，比如水管工或治疗师，不太可能受到人工智能的太大影响。
与以往的技术创新周期一样，经济学家也预计人工智能将催生新型就业岗位，但克罗普表示，目前尚不清楚这些岗位具体会是什么。
“社交媒体出现时，有人能预见到社交媒体博主会成为一种职业吗？”他说。
阿尔兰·谢特尔 编辑
AI will affect more than half of all U.S. jobs, analysis finds
April 7, 2026 4:42 PM EDT / CBS News
By Megan Cerullo
Megan Cerullo is a New York-based reporter for CBS MoneyWatch covering small business, workplace, health care, consumer spending and personal finance topics. She regularly appears on CBS News 24/7 to discuss her reporting.
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Artificial intelligence will dramatically change the nature of work, but stop short of replacing most employees, according to a recent analysis.
Over the next three years, AI will “reshape” between 50% and 55% of U.S. jobs, Boston Consulting Group researchers estimated.
“What people do in these jobs will be different, even if the job is still there,” BCG managing director and senior partner Matthew Kropp told CBS News.
At the same time, many jobs will be lost. BCG projects that 10% to 15% of U.S. jobs could be replaced by AI over the next five years.
“There’s almost a knee-jerk reaction — we’ll cut jobs and have layoffs. It’s indiscriminate, and that’s harmful for society because we need people to have jobs, but also harmful for companies themselves,” he said. “Yes, some will go away, but many jobs you’ll be re-skilling, getting people to work in a different way, and you have to expend effort to do that.”
Better for society — and business
As a result, Kropp urges business leaders to focus on how AI can augment workers’ capabilities rather than replace them.
“We should focus on re-skilling, and making sure people doing it are moving to other areas in which jobs will be fine,” Kropp added.
Tapping government labor data, Boston Consulting Group examined tasks associated with 1,500 jobs to assess which jobs are most suited to augmentation or replacement by AI.
“In some cases, the result will be that the demand for a job will go up as the cost of the job goes down,” Kropp said. “Software engineering is the poster child for this. There is a massive backlog of software engineering tasks that enterprises have. There is a huge amount of software that isn’t built because it’s too expensive.”
By contrast, many call center employee jobs are expected to be eliminated because AI can do the work without increasing demand for their services.
“When AI reduces the cost of handling routine inquiries, the number of interactions does not expand proportionally. In this context, productivity gains are more likely to reduce the number of representatives required,” BCG said in its analysls.
AI-proof work?
In other cases, jobs will remain largely unchanged. For example, occupations that require a physical presence or interpersonal skills, such as plumbers or therapists, are unlikely to feel much impact from AI, Kropp said.
As with previous cycles of technological innovation, economists also expect AI to spawn new kinds of jobs, but Kropp said that for now it remains unclear what those could entail.
“When social media came out, did anyone ever anticipate that social media influencer would be a job?” he said.
Edited by Alain Sherter
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