2026年4月6日 / 美国东部时间下午4:07 / 哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）新闻
即便该地区实现停火、霍尔木兹海峡迅速重新开放，伊朗战争仍将持续扰乱全球石油供应，一项最新分析得出如此结论。
地缘政治风险咨询公司欧亚集团（Eurasia Group）能源、工业与资源部门董事总经理亨宁·格洛伊斯泰因表示，修复波斯湾地区在冲突中受损的炼油厂及其他能源基础设施，需要耗时数月。
他在周一发布的一份报告中补充道，若战争暂停，在该区域运营油轮的航运公司也至少需要两个月才能恢复运营。
联合国一个专家小组在周一的报告中指出，霍尔木兹海峡目前几乎完全禁止油轮及其他船舶通行。该小组的数据显示，船舶过境量已从2月的日均约130艘降至3月的6艘。
“从 disruption 的规模可见一斑：目前至少有70艘大型空载原油油轮停泊在新加坡和马来西亚东海岸外，”格洛伊斯泰因说道。“这些油轮的总运力至少可达1亿桶原油，这些原油通常会在海湾地区装载，运往亚洲各地的炼油厂。”
地图展示了霍尔木兹海峡及其在将中东石油和液化天然气（LNG）通过阿拉伯海和印度洋运往全球市场过程中所发挥的作用。穆拉特·乌苏巴利/安纳多卢通讯社/盖蒂图片社 供图
“油轮从新加坡航行至海湾地区大约需要四周时间。因此，这些船只从当前锚地出发后，大约八周就能开始向亚洲运送中东原油，”格洛伊斯泰因补充道。
美国总统特朗普在周一的新闻发布会上表示，伊朗正在就可能达成的停火协议进行谈判，“我们认为他们是抱着诚意的”。当被问及是否愿意与德黑兰达成不包括重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的协议时，特朗普表示，海峡是“非常重要的优先事项”。
“我们可以彻底轰炸他们，让他们一蹶不振。但要封锁海峡，你只需要一名恐怖分子，用卡车装满水雷，设法投入水中就行，”他说道。
周一，金融市场评估美以与伊朗之间的敌对状态是否有望缓解，国际油价先是小幅下跌，随后转为上涨。作为基准的美国原油期货价格在抹去早前跌幅后，上涨1.3%，至每桶113.09美元。国际原油基准布伦特原油上涨1.2%，至每桶110.37美元，仍远高于战争爆发前约70美元的价格水平。
根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，美国国内普通汽油均价周一升至每加仑4.12美元，较战事爆发前的2.98美元有所上涨，达到2022年以来的最高水平。
格洛伊斯泰因表示：“短期内，即便霍尔木兹海峡的航运量有所增加，石油市场仍将处于供应短缺状态。”“这种供应紧张在航空和航运分别使用的喷气燃料和船用燃料油等关键燃料的创纪录高价上有所体现。”
艾米·皮奇 编辑
美联社 为本报道提供了素材
Iran war will throttle oil flows even if Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, analysis predicts
April 6, 2026 / 4:07 PM EDT / CBS News
The Iran war will continue to disrupt global oil supplies even if a ceasefire in the region leads to a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a new analysis.
Henning Gloystein, managing director of energy, industry and resources at geopolitical risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said it would take several months to repair oil refineries and other energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf that have been damaged in the conflict.
Shipping companies that operate oil tankers in the region would also take at least two months to resume operations if the war is suspended, he added in a report on Monday.
The Strait of Hormuz remains virtually closed to oil tankers and other ship traffic, a United Nations panel said in a report on Monday. Ship transits dropped from roughly 130 per day in February to six in March, according to the group.
“In a visible sign of the scale of the disruption, there are currently at least 70 large empty crude oil tankers anchored off the eastern coast of Singapore and Malaysia,” Gloystein said. “Collectively, these tankers have the capacity to hold at least 100 million barrels of crude oil, which would usually be picked up in the Gulf region and delivered to refineries across Asia.”
Map shows the Strait of Hormuz and its role in transporting oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Middle East to global markets via the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. Murat Usubali/Anadolu via Getty Images
“The voyage from Singapore to the Gulf region takes a tanker about four weeks. Accordingly, these vessels could begin delivering Middle Eastern crude to Asia roughly eight weeks after departing their current anchorage,” Gloystein added.
President Trump said in a news conference on Monday that Iran is negotiating, “we think in good faith,” over a possible ceasefire. Asked whether he would be willing to make a deal with Tehran that does not include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Mr. Trump said the strait is a “very big priority.”
“We can bomb the hell out of them. We can knock them out for a loop. But to close the Strait, all you need is one terrorist that somehow has a truck loaded” with mines to plant in the water, he said.
Oil prices swung from a modest dip to gains on Monday as financial markets assessed whether a break in hostilities between the U.S., Israel and Iran is on the table. The price for a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude rose 1.3% to $113.09 after erasing an earlier drop. Brent crude, the international standard, added 1.2% to $110.37 per barrel and remains well above its roughly $70 price from before the war.
In the U.S., the average price of gasoline rose on Monday to $4.12 a gallon, up from $2.98 just before the outbreak of hostilities and the highest since 2022, according to data from AAA.
In the short term, “oil markets will remain undersupplied, even with some increase in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,” Gloystein said. “This tightness is reflected in record-high prices for key fuels such as jet fuel and bunker fuel, used in aviation and shipping, respectively.”
Edited by Aimee Picchi
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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