2026年4月2日 美国东部夏令时15:32:06 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
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2026年4月2日 / 美国东部夏令时下午3:32 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
不断飙升的抵押贷款利率正威胁着春季购房季。
房地美周四表示，常规30年期住房贷款利率已升至6.46%，为2025年9月以来的最高水平。借贷成本在2月底跌破6%后，近几周大幅上涨。经济学家表示，伊朗战争加剧了通胀担忧并推高了政府债券收益率，进一步推高了利率。抵押贷款利率通常与10年期美国国债收益率挂钩。
对于准购房者来说，借贷成本的飙升是一大烦心事。
“战争爆发前，现在本可以是适合购房者的时机，”41岁的蕾切尔·马克斯说道，她是纽约布鲁克林的居民，最近开始寻找住房。“现在呢，算了吧，别碰这个市场，因为所有东西都在不停地涨、涨、涨。”
截至周四，10年期美国国债收益率为4.26%，高于2月28日美国和以色列袭击伊朗前的3.96%。
“当通胀上升时，债券投资者——包括抵押贷款支持证券投资者——会要求更高的回报以补偿通胀上涨带来的损失，”抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）首席经济学家迈克·弗拉坦托尼解释道。该协会是一个行业组织。
弗拉坦托尼表示，货币政策走向也在给房地产市场带来压力。由于通胀似乎始终高于美联储设定的2%年度目标，越来越多的经济学家和华尔街分析师现在预测，美联储将在2026年全年维持基准利率不变。
“抵押贷款利率将维持在6%以上的高位，部分原因是市场将更高的预期通胀计入了长期利率，”PNC金融服务集团的经济学家在本周的一份报告中预测。
8.4万美元的差额
准购房者如今正面临抵押贷款利率意外上涨带来的影响。
德文·波斯特是明尼苏达州的一名36岁企业财务主管，正在寻找一套能为家人提供更多空间的住房。她在2月份以为自己找到了一套完全符合要求的房产。
她告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，一家放贷机构最初给她的30年期固定抵押贷款利率是5.85%。但就在她和丈夫准备接受这个报价时，伊朗战争爆发了。放贷机构最新的报价变成了6.49%。
波斯特和她的丈夫最近对另一套住房提交了报价。她说，虽然他们离购房又近了一步，但面临的额外抵押贷款成本令人沮丧。
“你感觉自己终于要在形势对你有利的时候进入市场了。比如，利率终于要下降了，我们其实买得起不错的房子了，”她说。“然后呢，哦，等等，还是算了吧。”
根据房地产网站Realtor.com的数据，如果这对夫妇以6.49%的利率锁定贷款并首付20%，他们每月需要比上个月的低利率报价多支付265美元——相当于30年期贷款期限内总共多支出8.46万美元。
春季购房季会疲软吗？
抵押贷款利率走高正值春季购房季开始之际，通常此时住房需求会开始回升。专家此前曾预测今年春季购房季表现强劲，理由是库存小幅增加、新建筑势头向好以及挂牌价格同比下降。
房地产网站Realtor.com的高级经济学家杰克·克里梅尔表示，房地产市场也渴望摆脱去年春季购房季的阴影，当时特朗普总统的“解放日”关税引发了通胀和衰退担忧。
“今年本应是房地产市场明显复苏的一年，”他告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。“改善负担能力的条件正在形成。”
然而，更高的抵押贷款利率让形势变得不明朗，牛津经济研究院在最近的一份报告中指出，伊朗战争对房地产市场的影响“很可能会让许多购房者和卖家持观望态度”。
抵押贷款银行家协会最近下调了房屋销售展望，原因是该协会预计需求将走软。
“一个月前，我们对2026年的预测是房屋销量较2025年增长8%。现在我们预计增幅为5%，”弗拉坦托尼说道。
克里梅尔表示，现在判断更高的抵押贷款利率是否会抑制住房需求还为时过早，他指出“目前还没有任何危险信号”。他补充说，在某些情况下，上升的抵押贷款利率甚至可能促使人们尽快报价，在成本进一步上涨前锁定更优惠的利率。
尽管如此，一些迹象表明需求略有放缓。抵押贷款银行家协会的季节性调整后的购买指数——该指数追踪新房和现房的抵押贷款申请量——较4月1日当周下降了3%。
本文由阿兰·谢特编辑
Mortgage rates are surging, foiling homebuyers’ best-laid plans
2026-04-02 15:32:06 EDT / CBS News
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April 2, 2026 / 3:32 PM EDT / CBS News
Surging mortgage rates are threatening to wash out the spring homebuying season.
The rate on a conventional 30-year home loan rose to 6.46%, its highest level since September 2025, Freddie Mac said Thursday. Borrowing costs have jumped sharply in recent weeks after having dipped below 6% in late February. The Iran war is exerting further upward pressure on rates by stoking inflation concerns and driving up government bond yields, according to economists. Mortgage rates tend to track the 10-year Treasury bond.
For aspiring homeowners, the upsurge in borrowing costs is a major headache.
“Before this war, it was like, it could be a good buyer’s time now,” said Rachel Marks, a 41-year-old Brooklyn, New York, resident who recently started searching for a home. “Now it’s like, nope, stay away because everything is just going up, up, up.”
As of Thursday, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.26%, up from 3.96% just before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
“When inflation goes up, investors in bonds — and that includes mortgage-backed securities — demand a higher return to compensate them for that increase,” explained Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), a trade group.
The direction of monetary policy is also weighing on the housing market, Fratantoni said. With inflation seemingly stuck above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target, a growing number of economists and Wall Street analysts now predict that the central bank will refrain from lowering its benchmark rate for all of 2026.
“Mortgage rates will remain elevated, above 6%, in part because markets are pricing higher expected inflation into long-term rates,” economists with PNC Financial Services predicted in a report this week.
$84,000 difference
Prospective homebuyers are now grappling with the impact of an unexpected jump in mortgage rates.
Devan Post, a 36-year-old corporate controller in Minnesota who’s in the market for a home offering more space for her family, in February thought she had found a property that ticked all the boxes.
A lender initially quoted her a rate of 5.85% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, she told CBS News. But before she and her husband could jump on the offer, the Iran war erupted. The lender’s latest quote: 6.49%.
Post and her husband recently put in an offer on another home. While they’re one step closer to buying, she said the additional mortgage costs they face are discouraging,
“You feel like you’re finally going to be entering the market when things are going your way. Like, rates are finally going down, we can actually afford a nice house,” she said. “And then it’s like, oh, wait, never mind.”
If the couple locks in at 6.49% and put 20% down, they would pay an extra $265 per month compared with the lower rate offer last month — that comes to $84,600 over the life of a 30-year loan, according to Realtor.com.
A weaker spring season?
Higher mortgage rates coincide with the start of the spring homebuying period, when demand normally starts to pick up. Experts had predicted a strong season, pointing to a modest increase in inventory, momentum in new construction and lower year-over-year listing prices.
The housing market was also eager to turn the page from last spring’s buying season, when President Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs sparked inflation and recession fears, according to Jake Krimmel, a senior economist at Realtor.com.
“This was going to be the year that the market rebounded in a noticeable way,” he told CBS News. “Conditions were forming for improved affordability.”
However, higher mortgage rates have muddied the picture, with Oxford Economics noting in a recent report that the Iran war’s effect on the housing market “will likely send many buyers and sellers to the sidelines.”
The Mortgage Bankers Association recently downgraded its outlook for home sales because of what it expects to be softer demand.
“A month ago, our forecast for 2026 was for an 8% increase in home sales compared to 2025. Now we’re looking for a 5% increase,” Fratantoni said.
Krimmel said it’s too soon to tell if higher mortgage rates will chill demand for housing, noting that “nothing is flashing red yet.” In some cases, rising mortgage rates could even encourage people to jump on an offer to lock in a better deal before costs rise, he added.
Still, some signs point to a slight slowdown in demand. The MBA’s seasonally adjusted purchase index, which tracks the volume of mortgage loan applications for new and existing homes, fell 3% on April 1 from a week earlier.
Edited by Alain Sherter
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