2026年4月1日 美国东部时间下午4:20 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
作者：梅根·塞鲁洛 记者，MoneyWatch专栏
梅根·塞鲁洛是驻纽约的CBS MoneyWatch记者，报道小企业、职场、医疗保健、消费者支出和个人理财话题。她经常亮相CBS新闻24/7频道讨论相关报道。
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特朗普总统周二对记者表示，他预计美国将在两到三周内结束与伊朗的战争，这一言论缓解了全球油价压力、提振了股市，让投资者备受鼓舞。但经济学家警告称，除非伊朗同意尽快重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，否则这种乐观情绪很快就会消散。他们警告说，即便特朗普政府着手结束该地区的军事行动，原油价格仍可能持续飙升。
“不幸的是，那些可怕的情景极具现实可能性。不难想象油价会涨到每桶150美元，甚至涨到200美元也并非天方夜谭，”诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼在接受CBS新闻采访时表示。
牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家伯纳德·亚罗斯表示，与全球油价挂钩的美国汽油价格，如果海峡持续关闭，可能会继续攀升至4美元以上。周三，美国汽油平均价格上涨至每加仑4.06美元，创下2022年8月以来的新高。
特朗普总统定于周三晚间就伊朗战争问题向美国民众发表讲话。能源专家表示，油气价格可能会根据他的讲话出现波动。
“如果总统只是回避就霍尔木兹海峡问题给出明确说法或解决方案，我们将继续看到油价因现实情况而波动，”GasBuddy的石油专家帕特里克·德汉表示。
他预测，短期内美国汽油均价也可能小幅上涨至每加仑4.12美元至4.15美元之间。
但德汉补充道：“如果总统今晚发表积极言论，那么4.12至4.15美元的价格可能会成为短期峰值，随后全国汽油均价可能开始回落。”
特朗普周三早些时候表示，伊朗希望停火，但他明确表示，即使不重新开放海峡，美国也可以结束在该地区的军事行动，将处理德黑兰控制这条关键航运通道的问题留给其他国家。
海峡航运放缓
据海事信息提供商劳埃德船级社情报（Lloyd’s List Intelligence）数据，自2月底伊朗战争爆发以来，途经霍尔木兹海峡的船舶中，超过70%要么为伊朗所有、与伊朗有关联，要么往返于伊朗港口之间。
正常情况下，每日有2000万桶原油通过该海峡。自战争爆发以来，这一流量已减少多达1600万桶。
霍尔木兹海峡是海湾国家石油运输的关键通道。贝迪尔汗·德米尔/安纳多卢通讯社 via 盖蒂图片社
克鲁格曼指出，由于石油没有直接替代品，且原油需求正如经济学家所言“缺乏弹性”，如果这条狭窄水道长期关闭，油价将远超每桶120美元的近期高点。
这位经济学家还指出了两个将影响原油价格的关键因素：如果海峡持续关闭，波斯湾的石油运输量会如何变化，以及原油采购方可能对油价大幅上涨作出何种反应。
消费者面临的风险
投资咨询公司牛津经济研究院油气预测主管布里奇特·佩恩预计，如果海峡仍处于危险通航状态，油价将在数周内攀升至每桶150美元以上，这意味着消费者将面临更高的能源成本。
“按照目前的油价上涨速度，石油供应中断的时间越长，对消费者价格的传导影响就会越严重，”佩恩在接受CBS新闻采访时表示。
她补充道，尽管特朗普政府在战争期间采取的增加石油供应的措施，帮助美国避免了燃油价格的更大幅度上涨，但这些努力的效果会随时间减弱。“这无法与海峡的运输规模相提并论，根本无法弥补损失的油量。”
全球每日约五分之一的石油和天然气供应需通过霍尔木兹海峡。
瑞斯凯德能源公司（Rystad Energy）油气分析师马特·伯恩斯坦认为，即便美国迅速开始从该地区撤军，油价也可能维持高位。
“即使未来几周冲突平息，海峡逐步重新开放，现在也愈发清晰的一点是，我们再也回不到战前的常态了，”伯恩斯坦在接受CBS新闻采访时表示，他指出海湾地区贸易面临的地缘政治和金融风险有所上升。
他补充道：“如果霍尔木兹海峡‘实际上持续关闭，石油供应仍然受限，那么油价就不会有下行压力’。”
How high could oil and gas prices go if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed?
2026-04-01 4:20 PM EDT / CBS News
By Megan Cerullo Reporter, MoneyWatch
Megan Cerullo is a New York-based reporter for CBS MoneyWatch covering small business, workplace, health care, consumer spending and personal finance topics. She regularly appears on CBS News 24/7 to discuss her reporting.
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President Trump’s comments to reporters on Tuesday that he expects the U.S. to end its war with Iran in two or three weeks is buoying investors by easing global oil prices and boosting stocks. Yet such optimism is certain to fade quickly unless Iran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz soon, according to economists, who warn that crude prices could continue to soar even if the Trump administration moves to wind down military operations in the region.
“The scary scenarios are, unfortunately, extremely plausible. It’s not at all hard to tell a $150 [per barrel] story, and it’s not crazy to go to $200,” Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman told CBS News.
U.S. gasoline prices, which are tied to the global price of oil, would likely keep climbing above $4 if the strait remains closed, according to Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. The average cost of gas rose on Wednesday to $4.06 a gallon, its highest level since August 2022.
President Trump is scheduled to address Americans on the Iran war on Wednesday night. Energy experts said oil and gas prices will likely move in response to his remarks.
“If the president just foregoes providing clarity or resolution on the Strait of Hormuz, we’re going to continue to see oil prices reacting to the reality,” said Patrick De Haan, a petroleum expert at GasBuddy.
In the near term, the average U.S. price of gas could also edge up to between $4.12 and $4.15 per gallon, he predicted.
But “if the president says good things tonight, then that $4.12 to to $4.15 would likely represent a short-term price peak. And then the national average could start falling,” De Haan said.
Mr. Trump said earlier Wednesday that Iran wants a ceasefire, but he’s made it clear he could end U.S. operations in the region without reopening the strait, leaving other countries to deal with Tehran’s control of the critical shipping lane.
Slowdown in the strait
Since the beginning of the Iran war in late February, more than 70% of all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz have either been owned by or linked to Iran, or sailing between Iranian ports, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a maritime insights provider.
Normally, 20 million barrels of oil flow through the strait daily. That volume has been reduced by as many as 16 million barrels since the war began.
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial passageway for oil shipments from Gulf states. Bedirhan Demirel/Anadolu via Getty Images
Because there are no direct substitutes for oil and demand for crude is “inelastic,” as economists say, a prolonged closure of the narrow waterway would drive oil prices well beyond their recent highs of around $120 a barrel, Krugman said.
The economist also points to two key factors that he said would influence the price of crude if the strait remains shut: the volume of oil that could traverse the Persian Gulf, and how purchasers of crude would respond to potentially much higher oil prices.
Risks for consumers
Bridget Payne, head of oil and gas forecasting at investment advisory firm Oxford Economics, expects oil prices to rise above $150 a barrel within weeks if the strait remains too dangerous to navigate. That would mean higher energy prices for consumers.
“At the speed we’re seeing prices grow, the pass-through impact on consumer prices becomes a lot worse the longer oil supply stays offline,” Payne told CBS News.
Although moves by the Trump administration to boost oil supplies during war have shielded the U.S. from even sharper hikes in fuel prices, such efforts will become less effective over time, she added. “It’s no match for the scale that goes through the strait. It doesn’t come anywhere near touching how much has been lost.”
Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz daily.
Matt Bernstein, oil and gas analyst at Rystad Energy, thinks oil prices are likely to remain elevated even if the U.S. moves quickly to start pulling its forces out of the region.
“Even if the conflict did wind down in the next couple of weeks and that strait gradually reopened, what’s starting to become clear is there is no going back to pre-war normal,” Bernstein told CBS News, pointing to the higher geopolitical and financial risks around trade in the Gulf.
If the Strait of Hormuz “remains de facto closed and [oil] supply is still constrained, we’d be in a situation where there is no downward pressure on oil prices,” he added.
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