2026年4月1日 / 美国东部时间下午1:32 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
伊朗战争正在给本已放缓的美国劳动力市场增添新的压力，至少有一家大型雇主已经冻结了招聘计划。
拥有多芬、凡士林等品牌的消费品巨头联合利华周二对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示，鉴于经济环境不稳定，该公司将暂停招聘。路透社获得的一份联合利华高管备忘录显示，公司将此次为期三个月的招聘冻结归因于“宏观经济和地缘政治现实，尤其是中东地区的冲突”。
即便在伊朗战争爆发前，美国的招聘速度就已经放缓，2月的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查数据降至2020年以来的最低水平。2月份美国雇主裁员9.2万个岗位，这是劳动力市场遭遇的一次大幅且出人意料的挫折——过去一年间，受关税政策和经济不确定性影响，企业步履维艰，就业增长一直疲软。
“我们正处于一段不确定性时期，就像2025年面临关税政策时一样，”牛津经济研究院美国高级经济学家马修·马丁对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示，“企业无法确定政策走向和自身成本结构，这导致它们推迟了招聘计划。”
伊朗战争对招聘的影响可能不会立刻体现在3月就业报告中，该报告将于美国东部时间4月3日上午8:30发布。据FactSet调查的经济学家平均预测，美国雇主上月新增就业岗位6万个，有望从2月的下滑中反弹。
“3月就业报告可能会显示就业小幅增长，这在很大程度上得益于医疗保健行业就业的持续强劲表现，”海军联邦信用联盟首席经济学家希瑟·朗在电子邮件中说道。她还表示，周五发布的数据“过早，无法体现伊朗战争带来的影响”。
新的经济逆风因素
随着伊朗战争持续，企业正面临运输成本上涨带来的新逆风，而消费者则要应对推高的燃油成本，这进一步收紧了他们的预算。航空公司正在提高票价，经济学家预计，受战争对化肥供应的影响，部分食品价格或将上涨。
牛津经济研究院的马丁表示，企业可能会在消化高能源价格影响的过程中推迟招聘。他补充道，以联合利华为例，该公司在应对更高的生产和分销成本的同时，还不确定伊朗战争会持续多久，因此可能会“寻求削减整体开支的方法”。
世界大企业联合会经济、战略与金融中心高级经济学家叶莲娜·舒利亚特耶娃表示，飙升的能源价格还可能阻碍经济增长，进而导致招聘疲软。不过根据她的分析，只有当油价达到每桶140美元（目前布伦特原油价格约为102美元）时，美国经济才会陷入衰退，并对劳动力市场产生负面影响。
“经济增长越缓慢，对新员工的需求就越低，”她对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻说道。伊朗战争“可能会加剧这种低流动性状况，因为企业无法预判局势，不确定性居高不下”。
失业率会上升吗？
高盛集团分析师预测，到9月底，美国失业率可能会上升0.2个百分点，达到4.6%。他们写道，油价上涨通常会“减缓就业增长并推高失业率”，并补充称，艺术与娱乐业以及住宿和餐饮业最有可能缩减招聘规模。
马丁表示，部分原因在于消费者受到的财务影响：他们将预算中更大的份额用于汽油支出，用于其他商品和服务的资金则有所减少。一些消费者可能会削减非必要开支，另一些消费者则会更谨慎地消费，同时增加储蓄作为缓冲。
“随着人们缩减开支，只购买必需品，旅行和奢侈品等非必需商品和服务将受到最严重的冲击，”他说道。
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/jamie-dimon-says-he-doesnt-know-if-iran-war-will-tip-economy-into-recession/
Will the Iran war slow U.S. hiring? Economists say risks are rising.
April 1, 2026 / 1:32 PM EDT / CBS News
The Iran war is adding fresh pressure to a slowing U.S. labor market, with at least one major employer already freezing hiring plans.
Consumer goods giant Unilever, which owns brands such as Dove and Vaseline, told CBS News on Tuesday that it’s hitting the brakes on hiring amid an unstable economic backdrop. In a memo obtained by Reuters, a Unilever executive pointed to “macroeconomic and geopolitical realities, especially in the Middle East conflict” as the reason for the company’s three-month hiring freeze.
Even before the Iran war began, the U.S. hiring rate had slowed, with the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey hitting its lowest level since 2020. Employers across the U.S. shed 92,000 jobs in February, a sharp and unexpected setback in a labor market marked by anemic job growth during the past year as businesses grappled with tariffs and economic uncertainty.
“We’re in a period of uncertainty, much like in 2025 with tariffs,” Oxford Economics senior U.S. economist Matthew Martin told CBS News. “Companies weren’t sure what the policy, what their cost structure was going to be, which led them to delay hiring.”
The Iran war’s impact on hiring may not be immediately reflected in the March jobs report, set to be released on April 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Employers across the U.S. likely added 60,000 jobs last month, rebounding from February’s decline, according to the average estimate of economists polled by FactSet.
“The March jobs report is likely to show modest gains due largely to the ongoing strength of healthcare employment,” said Heather Long, the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in an email. Friday’s data release will be “too early to see the impact from the war in Iran.”
Fresh economic headwinds
As the Iran war continues, businesses are facing fresh headwinds from higher transportation costs, while consumers are coping with higher fuel costs that are straining their budgets. Airlines are hiking fares, and economists expect some food prices to rise due to the war’s impact on fertilizer supplies.
Companies may delay hiring as they digest the impact of higher energy prices, said Martin of Oxford Economics. Unilever, for instance, may be “looking for ways to reduce overall spend” as it copes with higher production and distribution costs, while also facing uncertainty about how long the Iran war may continue, he added.
Soaring energy prices could also dent economic growth, which, in turn, could translate into weaker hiring, said Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist at The Conference Board’s Economy, Strategy and Finance Center. Still, oil prices would have to hit $140 a barrel — up from Brent crude’s current price of about $102 — for the U.S. economy to tip into a recession and negatively impact the labor market, according to her analysis.
“The slower the growth rate is, the lower the need for new employees,” she told CBS News. The Iran war “will probably exacerbate these low-churn conditions, because companies don’t know what to expect. There’s high uncertainty.”
A higher unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate could increase by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6% by the end of September, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. Higher oil prices typically “reduce job growth and raise unemployment,” they wrote, adding that the arts and entertainment and accommodation and food services industries may be most likely to scale back hiring.
That’s partly because of the financial impact on consumers, who are spending a greater share of their budgets on gasoline, leaving them with less money to spend on other goods and services. Some consumers may cut back on non-essential purchases, while others may spend more cautiously as they build their savings as a buffer, Martin said.
“Discretionary goods and services like travel and luxury items would be the hardest hit as people scale back and only spend on the essentials,” he said.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/jamie-dimon-says-he-doesnt-know-if-iran-war-will-tip-economy-into-recession/
发表回复