2026-04-01 12:00:52 UTC / 路透社
作者：霍华德·施奈德
2026年4月1日 12:00 UTC 更新于3小时前
2025年4月9日，美国华盛顿特区，里奇蒙德联邦储备银行行长托马斯·巴尔金出席华盛顿特区经济俱乐部的对话活动。路透社/凯文·莫哈特/资料图
- 内容摘要
- 巴尔金认为目前消费者支出或通胀预期尚未出现重大转变
- 美联储官员仍持谨慎态度，在政策调整前等待油价冲击的明确影响
- 零售商在定价上面临消费者抵制，而服务企业则保留更多定价权
华盛顿4月1日（路透社）——里奇蒙德联邦储备银行行长汤姆·巴尔金表示，企业仍将高油价视为仅会造成短期 disruption，目前几乎没有证据表明消费者已开始缩减开支，或以令人担忧的方式改变了公众的通胀预期。
“我的直觉是，人们仍以短期视角看待此事，”巴尔金周二对路透社表示，他的结论基于每周信用卡支出数据，以及他与企业高管定期就定价、投资等议题展开的对话。
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“显然，汽油支出大幅增加，但其余领域的消费看起来仍相当健康，”巴尔金说，他今年不具备利率政策投票权。“如果你认为这只是两到三周、最多四周的短期问题，额外多花10到15美元固然不好，但不会从根本上改变你的生活水平。但如果你认为这种情况会持续很久，那我认为你更有可能会缩减开支。”
自美国对伊朗发动空袭、全球油价随之飙升以来，美联储官员和全球各国央行官员既担忧又保持耐心——担忧持续高企的能源价格可能推高他们正努力遏制的通胀，同时也保持耐心，在明确冲突可能持续多久、以及对物价的影响之前，不急于做出反应。
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美联储在最近一次会议上维持现行3.50%至3.75%的政策利率区间不变，政策制定者仍预计今年将进行一次25个基点的降息。
但局势难以预测。本周市场就显现出快速变化的可能性：基准布伦特原油价格曾短暂突破每桶119美元，较美国开始空袭前上涨逾70%，随后在唐纳德·特朗普总统表示美国的军事行动可能接近尾声后，暴跌至每桶102美元左右。特朗普将于周三晚向全国发表讲话。
与此同时，美国汽车协会（AAA）数据显示，周三全国汽油均价再度上涨至每加仑4.06美元，为2022年夏季以来的最高水平。当时疫情期间的供应冲击叠加强劲的消费者需求，引发了40年来最严重的通胀飙升。
美联储官员竭力避免重蹈覆辙，此次油价上涨曾让投资者短暂预期美联储今年将开始加息，而非恢复此前预计的降息进程。
巴尔金表示，目前存在多种可能推动美联储采取任何方向行动的情景，但在他看来，加息的理由可能围绕通胀预期上升——这种情况将迫使政策制定者证明他们致力于将物价涨幅维持在2%的目标范围内。
“加息的理由将是通胀预期终于开始上行，”他说。“目前我还没有看到它们出现显著突破。”
相比之下，降息的理由则包括：通胀从目前高出目标约1个百分点的水平开始快速回落至美联储2%的目标，或是就业市场疲软需要通过降息来提供支撑。
商品领域定价权弱于服务领域
周五将公布的3月就业报告将受到密切关注，以判断2月公布的失业数据是异常现象，还是就业市场疲软加剧的信号。
但除此之外，美联储可能只能维持现行政策不变。考虑到特朗普政府时期接连出现的价格冲击——从关税措施到此次石油危机，预计今年通胀向央行目标回落的进程将步履维艰。
巴尔金表示，在与企业高管的对话中，他看到商品领域和服务领域之间出现了分化：零售商认为消费者的抵制限制了它们的定价权，而服务企业——尤其是面向高收入家庭的服务企业——则觉得更有自由上调价格。
在与一家专注于中低收入客户的零售商交谈后，“我强烈感觉到消费者已经对价格上涨感到疲惫不堪，”他说。“他们正在抵制。我得出的结论是，1%至2%的（价格）涨幅……差不多就是他们所能承受的上限了。”
“更脆弱的领域是服务行业，尤其是面向高端客户的服务，”他说。
“经历过多次关税转嫁和石油冲击成本转嫁的商品供应商，已经感觉自己没有多少剩余定价空间了，”巴尔金说。“但服务业的情况则不同。”
巴尔金表示，这可能导致通胀向美联储目标回落的进程更加缓慢，目前市场预期已计入这一前景：加息不再被考虑，但美联储将在较长时间内维持现行政策，直到2027年晚些时候才会降息。
“我认为这是一条渐进的路径，而非快速路径。这是我的直觉。”
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Exclusive: Fed’s Barkin: Households, firms still see oil shock through a “short-term lens”
2026-04-01 12:00:52 UTC / Reuters
By Howard Schneider
April 1, 2026 12:00 PM UTC Updated 3 hours ago
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin attends a conversation with the Economic Club of Washington DC in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 9, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Mohatt/File Photo
- Summary
- Barkin sees no major shift yet in consumer spending or inflation expectations
- Fed officials remain cautious, awaiting clarity on oil price impact before policy changes
- Retailers face consumer pushback on prices, while service firms retain more pricing power
WASHINGTON, April 1 (Reuters) – Businesses continue to act as if high oil prices will prove only a short-term disruption, with little evidence yet it has caused consumers to pull back on spending or shifted public inflation expectations in a worrisome way, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin said.
“My instinct is you’ve still got a short-term lens on this,” Barkin told Reuters on Tuesday, basing his conclusion on things like weekly credit card spending data and his regular conversations with business executives about pricing, investment and other issues.
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“Gas spending is up a lot, obviously, but the rest of spending still looks pretty healthy,” said Barkin, who is not a voter on interest rate policy this year. “If you think this is a two- or three- or four-week thing, an extra $10 to $15 isn’t great but it doesn’t fundamentally change your standard of living. If you think this is going to last for a long time that’s when I think you’re more likely to see pullback.”
Since the start of U.S. airstrikes in Iran and the ensuing surge in global oil prices, Fed officials and central bankers globally have reacted with equal parts concern and patience – concern that sustained high energy prices could raise inflation they are fighting to contain, and patience against overreacting until it is clear how long the conflict might last and what the impact on prices might be.
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The Fed at its most recent meeting held the policy interest rate steady in the current 3.50% to 3.75% range, with policymakers still projecting a single quarter-point rate cut by the end of the year.
But the situation is unpredictable. The potential for quick change in either direction was apparent this week when benchmark Brent crude oil briefly topped $119 a barrel, more than 70% higher than before the U.S. commenced bombing, then plunged to around $102 after President Donald Trump indicated the U.S. campaign may be nearing its end. He is to address the nation Wednesday night.
Gas prices, meanwhile, jumped again on Wednesday to a national average of $4.06, according to AAA, the highest since the summer of 2022, when a combination of pandemic-era supply shocks and strong consumer demand led to the worst surge of inflation in 40 years.
Fed officials are intent on avoiding a repeat, and the oil surge prompted investors to – briefly – anticipate the Fed would begin hiking interest rates this year rather than at some point resuming the rate reductions that had been expected.
Barkin said there are scenarios that could push the Fed in any direction at this point, but the case for a hike would in his view likely revolve around a rise in inflation expectations – the sort of development that would compel policymakers to prove they are committed to keeping price increases in line with their 2% target.
“The hike case would be around inflation expectations starting to finally move,” he said. “I don’t have a sense that they’ve broken out at this point.”
The case for cuts, by contrast, would involve either inflation starting to move quickly back towards the Fed’s 2% target from about a percentage point above that now, or a weakening in the job market that required support in the form of rate cuts.
PRICING POWER WEAKER IN GOODS THAN IN SERVICES
The employment report for March due Friday will be watched closely to see if the job losses posted in February prove an anomaly or were a sign of developing weakness.
Absent that, however, the Fed may be left on hold, with inflation expected to make only halting progress towards the central bank’s target this year, given successive price shocks under Trump that began with tariffs and continued with oil.
Barkin said in his conversations with executives he sees a split developing between the goods sector, where retailers feel their pricing power has been limited by pushback from consumers, and the service sector, where firms that cater to better-off households in particular feel more free to raise prices.
After talking with one retailer focused on low to moderate-income customers, “I had the strong sense that consumers are exhausted by price increases,” he said. “They’re pushing back. I walked out with the lens that 1% to 2% (of price increases) … that would be about as much as they could handle.”
“Where there’s more vulnerability is on the services side, particularly selling to high-end customers,” he said.
“Goods suppliers who’ve been through the drill multiple times with trying to pass on tariffs and trying to pass on oil shock costs, they just don’t feel they’ve got much left,” Barkin said. “I don’t have the same feeling on services.”
The likely result, Barkin said, is slower progress back to the Fed’s inflation target, an outlook now embedded in market expectations that see rate hikes as off the table, but also with the Fed on an extended pause well into 2027 before rate cuts are expected.
“I see a gradual path, not a quick path. That’s my instinct.”
Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Chizu Nomiyama
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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