2026年3月30日 / 美国东部时间上午11:03 / 哥伦比亚广播公司/美联社
周一,布伦特原油价格触及每桶115美元,此前特朗普总统发出新威胁,称如果霍尔木兹海峡不重新开放,美国可能摧毁伊朗包括发电厂和油井在内的基础设施。
根据Oilprice.com和FactSet的数据,作为国际基准的布伦特原油周一攀升至每桶115美元,随后回落至107.95美元。美国基准原油西德克萨斯中质油上涨2%,至101.70美元。
尽管如此,美国股市周一仍上涨,收复了部分失地。道琼斯工业平均指数上周五进入回调区间,此前该指数已连续五周下跌。华尔街将注意力转向特朗普周一同一条社交媒体帖子中更为积极的言论,他在其中称与伊朗的谈判“取得重大进展”。
早盘交易中,标准普尔500指数上涨0.6%,此前该指数遭遇了自伊朗战争爆发以来最糟糕的一周。截至美国东部时间上午11点,道琼斯工业平均指数上涨381点,涨幅0.85%,纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.3%。
摩根士丹利旗下E*TRADE的交易与投资董事总经理克里斯·拉金在一封电子邮件中表示:“股市仍在与油价和政治不确定性进行艰苦抗争。历史表明,大多数地缘政治冲击对市场的影响往往相对短暂,但如果没有明确证据表明伊朗战争即将结束,股市将难以摆脱当前的波动,难以维持上行势头。”
寻找投资机会
由于股市价格比战争爆发前更低,一些投资者正在寻找合适的买入时机。
标准普尔500指数上周收盘较1月份创下的历史高点低7.4%。道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数均较各自的历史纪录低10%以上,跌幅之大足以被专业投资者称为“回调”。
根据摩根士丹利的一项衡量标准,考虑到未来一年标普500指数成分股公司的预期利润增长情况,该指数较战争爆发前便宜了17%。摩根士丹利策略师表示,这一水平与此前那些未导致经济衰退或美联储加息的市场恐慌时期的估值区间相似。
以迈克尔·威尔逊为首的策略师指出,这是“越来越多的证据表明标普500指数的回调正接近尾声阶段”的迹象之一。
通胀风险
油价上涨和市场反弹之际,周末的战争局势瞬息万变,丝毫没有透露战事何时结束的迹象。全球投资者面临的核心问题是,石油和天然气能否恢复从波斯湾到客户的全面供应,并避免恶性通胀爆发。
一些经济学家表示,如果美联储认为油价过高,需要提高借贷成本以控制通胀,那么美联储维持利率不变甚至上调基准利率的风险正在上升。高利率有助于抑制通胀,但也会放缓经济增长,并压低各类投资的价格。
由于此类担忧,自战争爆发以来,债券市场的国债收益率一直在飙升,但周一收益率有所回落。
10年期美国国债收益率从上周五尾盘的4.44%回落至4.35%。这在债券市场是一次大幅波动,为华尔街提供了一些喘息空间。
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/iran-war-at-crossroads-rising-oil-prices-economic-uncertainty-hit-global-markets/
Brent crude touches $115 a barrel, while U.S. stocks recover some losses
March 30, 2026 / 11:03 AM EDT / CBS/AP
Brent crude touched $115 a barrel on Monday amid new threats from President Trump that the U.S. could destroy Iranian infrastructure, including power plants and oil wells, if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose to $115 a barrel on Monday before retreating to $107.95, according to data from Oilprice.com and FactSet. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, rose 2% to $101.70.
Still, the U.S. stock market rose on Monday, reversing some losses after the Dow Jones Industrial Average entered correction territory on Friday, following five weeks of declines. Wall Street focused on more positive comments from Mr. Trump in the same social media post on Monday, where he described “great progress” in negotiations with Iran.
The S&P 500 added 0.6% in early trading, coming off its worst week since the war with Iran began.The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 381 points, or 0.85%, as of 11 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.3% higher.
“Stocks continue to fight an uphill battle against oil prices and political uncertainty,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley, in an email. “History shows most geopolitical shocks tend to have a relatively short-lived impact on the market, but without clear evidence of an endgame for the Iran war, stocks will find it difficult to see past the current volatility and sustain upside momentum.”
Looking for bargains
With stocks cheaper than they were before the war, some investors are looking for an opportune time to buy.
The S&P 500 finished last week 7.4% below its all-time high, which was set in January. The Dow and Nasdaq both were more than 10% below their records, a steep enough fall that professional investors call it a “correction.”
Taking into account how much profits are expected to grow in the coming year for companies in the S&P 500, the index looks 17% cheaper than before the war, by one measure. That’s in a similar range as prior scares for the market that didn’t result in a recession or the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates, according to strategists at Morgan Stanley.
That’s one of the signs that the strategists led by Michael Wilson point to as “growing evidence the S&P 500 correction is getting closer to its ending stages.”
Inflationary risks
Rising oil prices and a rebounding market followed a whirlwind of action in the war over the weekend, none of which cleared up when the fighting may end. The main issue for investors worldwide is whether oil and natural can resume their full flow from the Persian Gulf to customers and prevent a brutal blast of inflation.
Some economists say there’s an increasing risk that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady — or even hike the benchmark rate— if it decides oil prices are so high that it needs to increase the cost of borrowing to keep inflation under control. Higher interest rates would help keep a lid on inflation, but they would also slow the economy and push down on prices for all kinds of investments.
Treasury yields have been leaping in the bond market since the war began because of such worries, but they eased somewhat on Monday.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.35% from 4.44% late Friday. That’s a significant move for the bond market and offers some breathing room for Wall Street.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/iran-war-at-crossroads-rising-oil-prices-economic-uncertainty-hit-global-markets/
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